Iraq Attack Might be Delayed Until April 1

capitolhillblue.com ^ | Mar 10, 2003, 05:45

[TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!]

Washington will have enough forces bristling on the borders of Iraq to launch a strike as soon as the March 17 disarmament deadline it is seeking expires, but it looks likely to wait a few days longer.

Analysts said that, despite soaring temperatures which would make battle uncomfortable, U.S. Central Command chief General Tommy Franks may even seek a delay until April 1 to resolve a hitch in plans for a thrust into northern Iraq and have a moonless sky for aerial bombing.

Britain, supported by the United States, has proposed giving Iraq a March 17 ultimatum to cooperate fully with disarmament demands or face war.

Its proposed resolution so far lacks a majority at the U.N. Security Council and faces a possible veto, raising the prospect of military action without backing from the United Nations.

With more than 200,000 combined U.S. and British forces already in the Gulf region, along with dozens of warships and more than 500 attack aircraft, the timing for the start of a campaign is now of the attackers' choosing.

"U.S. forces already deployed...are adequate to quickly overwhelm and defeat the Iraqi military," said Loren Thompson, a defense analyst at the Lexington Institute in Arlington, Virginia.

"U.S. intelligence indicates all Iraqi forces, including the Republican Guard, to be poorly equipped, poorly trained and poorly led. In addition, the conscripted regular force appears to be demoralized and fearful."

In Kuwait, from where the bulk of forces would punch north into Iraq, there are signs of last-minute preparations.

ON A WAR FOOTING

Long convoys of U.S. and British military vehicles race up and down the main highway to the Iraqi border day and night. Fuel tankers, land rovers and Humvees are among the vehicles, many of them painted pale brown to blend in with desert.

In the darkness, lights glow from camps in the desert hidden behind walls of sand.

Members of the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division, expected to be a lead element in any invasion of Iraq, have left their camps in the desert in the past few days and gathered at makeshift staging areas to make room for new troop arrivals.

A commercial contractor is building seven new gates -- wide enough to accommodate tanks -- in the fence separating Kuwait from Iraq.

Allied warplanes have more than doubled their patrols over the Iraqi no-fly zones to at least 500 a day, a tactic officials said was designed to confuse air defenses before a possible invasion, and they have dropped hundreds of thousands of leaflets encouraging Iraqi troops not to fight.

In another sign that war may be drawing close, the U.S. Army has begun in recent days to "embed" journalists in Kuwait attached to military units for the conflict.

But Washington is still only weighing whether to order diplomats out of the region, something it did shortly before the start of hostilities against Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War.

Rosemary Hollis, head of the Middle East Program at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, said the United States would not want to give Iraq time to brace itself when the diplomatic showdown ends on March 17.

"I'm assuming the Americans don't want to give them too much time ... and they want an element of surprise," she said, adding that she saw war starting by March 25 but not as late as April.

TURKEY PROBLEM

To be sure of a textbook campaign, though, Franks would probably be aiming for no sooner than the back end of March.

For one, tanks of the Army's 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment will probably not arrive in theater until around that time.

But more crucially, there is the unresolved question of how to secure northern and western Iraq because of the Turkey's decision to deny the use of its territory to U.S. troops.

On March 1 the Turkish parliament rejected a request to station up to 62,000 troops in Turkey, but the government has hinted it may present a fresh motion to the assembly this week.

The original plan had been to send the Army's 4th Infantry Division with tanks and attack helicopters from Turkey into northern Iraq to prevent oilfields being seized by Iraqi Kurds and engage Iraqi forces so that they don't regroup to Baghdad.

These heavily armored troops would also have sought to prevent Kurdish attempts to forge a breakaway state, keep the peace between Kurds and Turkish troops, and possibly head down to Tikrit, the hometown of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

If Turkey stands firm, one option would be for the division to redeploy through the Suez Canal and into Kuwait, which would take a week. Lightly armed airborne troops could then be used to secure the oilfields in northern Iraq.

Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution said that if Franks was looking for full preparedness he would need at least two weeks from a decision to route the 4th Infantry Division to Kuwait and seven to 10 days after any approval by the Turkish assembly.

Analysts say, though, that pinpointing a date for the start of hostilities is intelligent guesswork, complicated by the fact that Franks has to go when President Bush says so.

"While force deployments are not yet complete, the force already in place is capable of defeating Iraq's demoralized military within two weeks," said Thompson. "Tommy Franks is continuously adjusting his campaign plan to accommodate an immediate start to hostilities if the president so directs."

© Copyright 2003 Capitol Hill Blue

[spectre]

I understand your point entirely...let's get it on and get it decided.

sw

[DaughterOfAnIwoJimaVet]

Agreed. If people read carefully and critically (which I often do not, I admit), they will see that half of the stuff they get worked into a lather about is speculative nonsense.

[RoseofTexas]

Or better yet, turn off the tube, and the radio, shut down the puter go outside and take a breather! I just pray that W can STILL pull this off! The only ones supporting him now are the Freepers, a few here and there and those in Iraq who want FREEDOM desperately!! Just saw a poll of W's numbers falling like a rock...:( Can anyone here say President Hitlery KKKlinton! GOD FORBID!

[libbylu]

isn't capitolhillblue the doug thompson site? not much credibility.

[Howlin]

Bingo. He hates Bush.

[deport]

Baghdad, Iraq
Weather can't be forecast more than a week or so in advance, but weather averages are good indicators of what to expect any month.

Month	Average high	Average low	Warmest ever	Coldest ever	Average dew point	Average precipitation
JAN.	58	38	75	25	38	1.1
FEB.	64	43	84	25	40	1.1
MARCH	73	50	88	30	42	1.1
APRIL	84	59	100	43	44	0.7
MAY	96	68	111	50	44	0.3

---

Maybe we can have a few of our blowhard know it alls with the 'gift' go over there and stir up a little gentle breeze for the troops.....

[dennisw]

april 1 is new moon time

[deport]

Iraq Attack Might be Delayed Until April 1 then again it might not.........

[section9]

Remember that this is CapitolHillBlue. Doug Thompson was caught by NickDanger making bogus claims about inner turmoil in the White House using phantom sources whose names have never shown up on Lexis/Nexis.

Basically, CHB is a source whose value compares unfavorably with that of a hot, steaming pile of turd.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Peach]

Thank you for not flaming me. It's gotten where I feel if one says the least negative thing about the president, we will get flamed. No one is perfect and I would give my life for this president, but am starting to question his commitment to the safety of our beloved soldiers. To think we'd place them at risk for the FRENCH of all people, makes me more angry than I've ever been in my entire life.

[Peach]

I can tell you in this staunchly Republican town in South Carolina - which CARRIED President Bush in the primaries, he is quickly losing support. People feel he's given the UN more than enough time, didn't even need the UN to begin with, etc. You can imagine all the arguments. I've defended him as much as I can around my town - where we talk politics constantly - but I don't have it in me anymore to do it. He's lost control and needs to take it back. If that means going into Iraq without UN support - so be it. Just do it and don't let our troops languish waiting for a drone plane to drop chemicals or for the heat to make it impossible for our troops to wear chemical gear.

[TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!]

Everyone will have a big mac attack, as well.

[Peach]

It's not just Capital Hill Blue and Reuters reporting this, which everyone is gleefully reporting are bad sources. It's been on Fox News that it's a possibility. Look around at all the sources. It's been dragging on for WELL over a month or two - when we were told it was a matter of weeks, not months. Now the entire coalition is falling apart. Even the more neutral nations are asking for an extension on the vote to April, for crying out loud.

[RoseofTexas]

I know what you mean, BUT knowing that the RATS want W to fail desperately so that Queen HILTERY will be crowned King president should be an incentive to continue to SEEK God for a Victory in this War! Let's not let up in our pray, in the contrary we MUST continue to pray for him even more EARNESTLY!! I WANT A VICTORY, ONE WAY OR THE OTHER, and I won't give up!! NO SIRRRREEY!!! KEEP THE FAITH!!

[TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!]

I think you are stretching your statement by labeling him as a Bush hater. There was a thread and this very thing was discussed and if you study all of Thompson's rants/ writings he does not hate Bush. He is more pro-Bush if anything.

Don't like the April 1 notion? Who does? But what does Thompson have to do with this date? Don't like CHB, don't read any threads posted of theirs.

[TaRaRaBoomDeAyGoreLostToday!]

Thank-you. Folks are getting punchy and diehard defensive.

[Peach]

I just told my husband over dinner we had to pray harder for the President, and I do pray for him every day and get the daily prayer thread on my private e-mail for him. I haven't given up for a victory in Iraq ultimately, but find it unforgivable that we have had our soldiers die IN France and now some may die BECAUSE of the French and our playing politics. It's time to stop playing politics. OR President Bush needs to come out and give a far better speech than he did last week, an impassioned speech, about how the French and Germans have not abided by UN resolutions in the past, and we don't feel obligated to do so either. AND talk about how it won't be a pre-emptive strike because Saddam has repeatedly violated the terms of the cease fire. He needs to say it plainly and loudly and now. Thanks for letting me rant. I'll pray harder tonight and every night and also pray for patience. He is, thankfully, a patient man, but I worry for him because there are only so many problems a man can bear and he's had more than his share.

[prairiebreeze]

Turkey. I've actually sort of forgotten about Turkey. Maybe some of this ridiculous waiting does have something to do with getting them on board, or unloading more of our guys and gear.

There are so many variables going on right now to keep track of--which is why the Turkey situation slipped my mind. Maybe we need a FReeper Situation Room!

Prairie

[Peach]

Yes, I agree. President Bush is a special, gifted, wonderful man and I'm thankful beyond belief he is our president. But that doesn't mean he's perfect and he'd be the first to admit that. He's made a few mistakes in handling this, and that's not just hindsight speaking. Many of us weren't in favor of going back to the UN after the first 15-0 vote. Even Clintoon said on LKL one night that he didn't believe we had to go back to the UN and if he was president he wouldn't do it! I hate to give the man an ounce of credit, and won't, but it's beyond my understanding why President Bush allowed this to happen. Very bad judgement. I'll pray harder and also pray for the patience he seems to have.

[RoseofTexas]

I too was feeling awefully low today, WHEN the Lord reminded me that HE IS STILL ON THE THRONE, STILL IN CONTROL of every situation!! Than he reminded me of Gideon. HE NEVER forsaked Gideon for one moment! GOD KNOWS everything, He is not blind, He knows every move SadDEMON and the AXIS OF WEASELS are making. I heard SadDEMON demand the UN disarm Israel, and end the embargo. That should have send alarms bell to go off in God's prayer warriors! Do you think for one moment that God would let Israel get slaughter by this EVIL man? I don't think so! We, it seems are their only friends and God is watchful of who hates Israel or who would fight beside her! Anyway, STAY THE COURSE, I know it's extremely discouraging to see our prez play it so cool!! Remember also to FIX your eyes on God, and Not on the situation or man! God promised us a Victory and a VICTORY is what we'll get!! I have to believe that or else I'll go bunkers!! My faith I put in the hands of the ALMIGHTY!!