Turkey: Bush issues veiled warning to Turkey

The Turkish Daily News ^ | March 8, 2003

[Lando Lincoln]

Bush issues veiled warning to Turkey

'We've got contingencies in place that should our troops not be allowed to come through Turkey. And no, that won't cause any more hardship for our troops. I'm confident of that'

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

President George W. Bush said the United States had contingency plans in place if Turkish Parliament insists on not allowing in U.S. combat troops to open a northern front against Iraq, in a veiled warning to Turkey that it might end up with missing its chance to have a say in the future of Iraq and lose a multi-billion dollar aid package to protect its economy from negative impacts of a war.

But he brushed aside any suggestion the United States would withdraw its support for Turkey's bid to join the European Union unless it reverses course, saying: "I support Turkey going into the EU."

"Turkey's a friend. They're a NATO ally. We'll continue to work with Turkey," Bush told a White House news conference. "We've got contingencies in place that should our troops not come through Turkey -- not be allowed to come through Turkey. And no, that won't cause any more hardship for our troops. I'm confident of that."

In a major setback to U.S. war plans for Iraq, Parliament refused in a close vote last weekend to approve the deployment of 62,000 American soldiers on the Turkish soil.

High-level officials of the U.S. administration have warned that Turkey would lose a multi-billion aid package pledged by the United States to compensate losses that the Turkish economy will suffer as a result of decreasing tourism revenues, rising oil prices and capital flight that would be entailed by a war in the neighboring Iraq.

The U.S. officials also said Turkey would not have a say in northern Iraq, a region where Turkey fears Kurdish groups could set up their own state benefiting from a war on Baghdad.

In weeks-long talks, Turkish and U.S. officials have agreed to act together in arming and disarming Kurdish groups that de facto control northern Iraq. Under the deal, Turkey was also allowed to send tens of thousands of troops to the region as a precaution against the establishment of a Kurdish state and to stop a possible refugee flow to its territory.

These deals came under question after the parliamentary rejection last Sunday.

The Pentagon has drawn up alternative plans for a "northern front," but administration officials still hold out hope for a new parliamentary vote as soon as next week after the head of the powerful military made a strong call on Wednesday to allow U.S. troops on its territory.

Ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Wednesday that a second vote on the motion may not be possible before a U.N. Security Council decision.

US offers Turkey short-term loans on Iraq

In a sign that Washington still has hopes for a northern front to be launched from Turkey, the United States was considering changes to its aid plan for Turkey.

Negotiators from both countries have also been discussing northern Iraq and a second government motion, if it ever comes, is expected to have a focus on Turkish troop deployment in northern Iraq, reports said.

"We cannot remain a bystander to developments... while there is a fire in our neighbor," said Prime Minister Abdullah Gul Friday and added the government will work to get out of the Iraqi crisis with minimum loss, in another sign that plans to assist the United States in a war in Iraq have not been abandoned.

Under the new economic aid plan, Turkey could get direct U.S. government loans rather than loan guarantees, including $8.5 billion for six months and up to $24 billion longer term if it reverses course and grants American troops access to its bases for an invasion of Iraq, U.S. sources familiar with the package told the Reuters.

Direct loans from the Bush administration would help ensure that Turkey does not run into trouble rolling over its short-term debt on its own, said the sources, who gave some new details of a package that has been hammered out over months.

Stepping up pressure on recession-hit Turkey to act, the Bush administration has warned that Parliament would forfeit the aid package if it balks at the deployment.

If Parliament reverses course and backs the U.S. deployment, the administration would ask the Republican-led Congress to provide $6 billion in direct aid, $4 billion of which would secure loans totaling as much as $24 billion.

As a down-payment on congressional action, the United States would provide Turkey with an $8.5 billion bridge loan from the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund, contingent on the Turkish Parliament approving a budget endorsed by the International Monetary Fund.

Sources said the bridge loan would be repaid in a relatively short time, possibly as little as six months, using the proceeds of the longer-term loans once approved by Congress.

The longer-term loans could also come directly from the U.S. government, though no final decisions have been taken, sources said.

The Bush administration had initially planned to provide Turkey with loan guarantees -- essentially U.S. government backing for loans that Turkey would secure from private banks. "But it's unclear whether Turkey can get the loans from the markets," one source said.

Sources say the administration initially balked at Turkey's request for a bridge loan drawing from the Exchange Stabilization Fund. Critics inside the administration and on Capitol Hill asserted that the country was not currently facing a major currency crisis.

But with U.S. naval ships waiting off Turkish shores and Pentagon war planners anxious for a decision, sources said the administration reconsidered.

White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said this week, "The particular package that we've been talking to them about was predicated on assistance and cooperation in any plan for the use of force against Iraq ... We'll continue to talk to them as we move forward."

But other U.S. officials said Turkey could still receive some financial aid.

Tapping into the $38 billion Exchange Stabilization Fund, set up in 1934 primarily for emergency use to defend the dollar, is bound to spark controversy on Capitol Hill.

Over objections from some Republicans, the fund was used in 1995 by former President Bill Clinton to bail out Mexico. Bush used it himself to help Uruguay last year.

U.S. congressmen were in Ankara Friday in an attempt to persuade Turkish leaders to allow American troops in.

"Our troops will be safer if they have access to Turkish bases during a possible war with Iraq," Whitfield, a Republican, said before leaving Wednesday. "Our military's first choice would be the threat of an attack from the north through Turkey and from the south through Kuwait."

Whitfield and Rep. Robert Wexler, a Florida Democrat, met Prime Minister Abdullah Gul, President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Parliament officials and AK Party leaders.

Whitfield and Wexler plan to stay in Turkey through to Sunday, the day of by-elections that would pave the way for AK Party leader Erdogan to become prime minister.

The party officials have said that a new vote could take up to three weeks, and analysts says a vote is unlikely before the new government is formed.

Ankara - TDN with wire dispatches

[Lando Lincoln]

The world must still think that Clinton is in office.

[tessalu]

I have hopes that Turkey will see the light, but it may be too late whey they finally see it.

[UncleSamUSA]

These jackhole Turks stabbed us in the back, and now they are whining because we are shifting to Plan B to go ahead without them.

You reap that which you sow, you stupid bastards.

[Maigret]

I heard on FOX today that one of those ships waiting off the coast of Turkey did indeed dock and unload this very day and then the equipment and men made straight for northern Iraq. I have a feeling the Turkish military is getting its way and going through the back door.

[afraidfortherepublic]

I heard on FOX today that one of those ships waiting off the coast of Turkey did indeed dock and unload this very day and then the equipment and men made straight for northern Iraq.

I saw films of that yesterday (or the day before) on Fox News. Turkish teenagers were applauding as our tanks and men rolled by.

[AmericaUnited]

Turkey has already screwed the pooch. The train has left the station...

[guitfiddlist]

I heard on FOX today that one of those ships waiting off the coast of Turkey did indeed dock and unload this very day and then the equipment and men made straight for northern Iraq. I have a feeling the Turkish military is getting its way and going through the back door.

Yes indeed, folks. We are in the "Twilight Zone", where hugely contradictory situation reports coexist and remain to fester in our minds. All is needed is one question from the press, along the lines of "Excuse me, but what exactly is going on with all the unloading in Turkey anyway?"

Anybody else out there find this completely bizarre?

[a_Turk]

>> jackhole Turks... stupid bastards...

Ouch..

>> You reap that which you sow

Exactly what has happened to you. I'm sure you're going to sow some more when you vote for another Clinton next election...

Conceited jerk..

[a_Turk]

>> Anybody else out there find this completely bizarre?

You're watching the process of democratic maturation in Turkey. The reigns are shifting from the political elite and the military to new politicians, many of whose grandparents might have been illiterate.

I think it's coming along just fine.

What happened here was that the new politicians neglected to make a case for the US perspective to the Turkish people. So the fiasco occurred and the Turkish military had to "advise" the newbies in parliament, that they had made a bad decision.

Luckily the military saw this coming and had placed some clauses into the previously passed "base modernization" bill. Thus all of your equipment, save tanks and artillery, can be unloaded and moved to new or existing bases, from where they could eventually be moved into Irak.

If indeed there is no bill, then I would imagine that you could fly your troops into northern Irak, and we could drive your stuff down for you..

[guitfiddlist]

Luckily the military saw this coming and had placed some clauses into the previously passed "base modernization" bill. Thus all of your equipment, save tanks and artillery, can be unloaded and moved to new or existing bases, from where they could eventually be moved into Irak.

Thank you. Your explanation makes a lot of sense.

[rface]

I have hopes that Turkey will see the light, but it may be too late whey they finally see it.

I thought I understood that Turkey's parlament wasn't going to look at this again for another 10 days? like March 17th. too late

[WarrenC]

These jackhole Turks stabbed us in the back, and now they are whining because we are shifting to Plan B to go ahead without them.

Yeah. Maybe I'm a 'conceited jerk', but I have to wonder: Did they actually think their "no" vote would stop our war on terror?

[rface]

I have watched your posts throughout this whole Turkish ordeal - I think you are a straight shooter and provide some good insight to this forum.....thanks

[a_Turk]

>> Yeah. Maybe I'm a 'conceited jerk'

LOL! I guess you can pick 'stupid bastard' too..

>> Did they actually think their "no" vote would stop our war on terror?

No.

First, are you sure that the public thinks that this is part of your war on terror? Believe me, Turkey's war on terror has been going on for three or four decades while you were manicuring your hedges and lawn.

Second, there are two parties in the parliament. The minority used the fact that the ruling party presented parliament with a completely unpopular bill. The tried to pick up voters by voting against it. Happens in your congress all the time.

Our war on terror..

[meema]

But tanks and artilary can't be flown, at least not enough of them, and that's what we need!

[section9]

Lay off the Turks. The army is helping us any way they can.

The government is in a bind: most of the people are against the war. Now, it appears that the most trusted institution in Turkey, the Army, has made its feelings known. Look for things to get a tad easier for us there.

The Turks understand the stakes. You need to understand that the Turks, whose troops were so ferocious that the North Korean Army was literally afraid to attack them in 1951, have fought beside us in the past. They'll be with us when the chips are down.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[FreeReign]

Yeah. Maybe I'm a 'conceited jerk', but I have to wonder: Did they actually think their "no" vote would stop our war on terror?

"Their no vote" was in the minority. The majority of Turk parliment reps. voted yes.

[uncbob]

Turkey's war on terror has been going on for three or four decades while you were manicuring your hedges and lawn.

The families of 55,000 dead Vietnam veterans might dispute that fact

[FreeReign]

These jackhole Turks stabbed us in the back...

We have plenty of jackhole backstabber reps. in this country too. I assume you were only referring to the Turk reps. who voted "no".

[Miss Marple]

Thank you for that information. I appreciate the information you have given us, and the fact that you have stuck with us when some people are so antagonistic.

I still would like to know if the media's hype of this situation as a shake down of us by Turkey was intentional or simply because they are ill-informed. In the case of CNN, which has covered your part of the world for some time, I am inclined to believe it is malice, rather than ignorance.