[AntiGuv]

I will reiterate a comment I made earlier in another thread. To all appearances, these opposing nations view the current standoff as a choice between: (a) the UN can limit American ‘hyperpower’; (b) the UN can enhance American ‘hyperpower’; (c) the UN may become irrelevant. If the option of (a) proves unattainable, I think all these nations would without hesitation prefer (c) rather than (b). I suspect that’s a point which may have been lost on many people who advance the UN's prospective irrelevance as if it's the key factor which will swing France or Russia in our favor. The Bush administration has framed the options as: (a) the UN can be relevant; (b) the UN can be irrelevant. That's not how these other nations view the situation. Now, one can argue with the wisdom of their viewpoint, which is another subject altogether.

Otherwise, mark my words, if the United Nations Security Council is consigned to the dustbin of history, the greatest ultimate loser will not be France, but rather Britain followed by Russia. The greatest ultimate winner will be China, then followed by the Franco-German axis... Cheers.

[Domestic Church]

The greatest winner will be those new eastern allies who have everything to gain in trading with us. Their people will reap benefits and their governments will gain political leverage. China may gain political leverage but the average Chinese will not be affected and the quality of their lifestyle will still be substandard.

[patj]

the greatest ultimate loser will not be France, but rather Britain followed by Russia. The greatest ultimate winner will be China, then followed by the Franco-German axis...

Why would Britain be a loser? Wouldn't she be allied with the US? As well as all the other new Europe countries, Australia, and Spain? A shuffle isn't a loss.

[wretchard]

The weakest nations stand to lose the most if the UN eventually becomes a museum in the Hague. Countries like the US, the UK and even France have sufficient national power to safeguard their interests in a chaotic world. In a lawless town, the fastest guns can still walk the streets in comparative safety. It's the delivery boy and the little old lady who gets short shrift.

Those who believe who prefer the demise of the UN to the enhancement of American power through the UN will get the worst of both worlds. The world talking shop in which they had some status will cease to exist and the United States will be free to operate without reference to any pre-existing institutional arrangements. It's the same mistake that unskilled laborers make when they shut down a firm thinking that Mr. Big will be impoverished. They'll be out of a job and impoverished while Mr. Big gets to build another factory in a better industry somewhere else.

But France doesn't mind this, as long as it gets to pick up some of the debris. After all, France glories in being able to dominate the impoverished African countries it calls the Francophile zone and play the big bwana in these pathetic places -- which it keeps pathetic, expressly for the purpose. If France can't be King of the World, it is happy to be the emperor of its own hobo court. And it's looking for a few more members.

[laz17]

I predict France will veto. And this is why.

Among other things, this entire circus at the UN has been an attempt to control the US, to put a limit on its power. While it's been a cynical, maniacal, corrupt, and evil attempt to keep Hussein in power and continue to profit from relationships with him, the situation has also been used by the Axis of Weasels to beat the US into submission. But if these clowns on the SC have the slightest modicum of awareness, they have come to the realization by this point that Bush is NOT bluffing about going into Iraq. And they understand that if the UN tells us we can't go into Iraq, and we do anyway, then it's obvious that the UN cannot control the US or limit its power. From here, they must draw the conclusion that if the UN survives in any shape after that, it survives in a role subservient to the US. Never again can the UN tell us what we can or cannot do. It can only follow where we lead, not the other way around.

In that event, the Axis of Weasels will not want the UN to continue, if the UN cannot control the US and the US calls the shots. So they will destroy the UN themselves. They have gambled everything to enslave the US to their will through the UN... but they overplayed their hand. If the US refuses to be enslaved, then they'd rather there be no UN at all than a UN subservient to the US. So the weasels will kill the UN as a scorched-earth tactic, cut their losses, sever all ties with the US, and devote their energy to building up the EU as best they can under the circumstances.