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African-Americans are one of the most religious and socially conservative constituencies in America, and the right messenger could increase the GOP's share of the black vote from 10% to 25% in no time flat. In my opinion, there are dozens of House seats where a black conservative could knock off a Dem. incumbent. The South is filled with seats where blacks are between 30-50% of the electorate and in which Bush got between 40-60% of the vote in 2000, and if the GOP House nominee could get as little as 20-25% of the black vote, he or she would be practically unbeatable. I agree with you, MAKnight, we need to support black conservatives wherever they run. This means supporting them not just in the seats I described above (in which black Republican candidates give us our best shot at victory), but also in safe Republican seats where we don't need the black vote to win. Richard Burr's very Republican House seat (which he's vacating to run for the Senate) comes readily to mind---we need to support Winston-Salem Alderman Vernon Robinson, who would show North Carolinians of all colors that it's okay for a black man to reveal he's a conservative. Vernon Robinson's election to the House could be a catalyst for runs by black conservatives in NC01 and NC12, which are between 45-50% black but in which Bush got between 40-45% of the vote in 2000, as well as in four 20-35% black districts in which Bush got between 48-54% of the vote but which have Democratic Congressmen.

BTW, in my earlier post about "unwinnable" Senate races, I forgot to mention the fact that Wyden, Dodd and Bayh have all voted against allowing Miguel Estrada's nomination to be voted upon, and a minority candidate could best exploit their unconstitutional actions.

In CT, we tried running Gary Franks in 1998, and it was a disaster. For whatever reasons, Franks wasn't able to attract many black voters, and Chris Dodd coasted to victory. But I agree that we'd be better of if he tried again and worked harder this time (his lackadaisical campaigning cost him his House seat in 1996), and maybe put a dent on the Dem's lock on the black vote in CT.

From what I remember of Gary Franks, he was a "moderate" / Rockefeller Republican (the anti-thesis of an AuH₂0 Republican) ... basically a hair's breadth away from being an out and out RINO. "Moderates" (of all races) generally lack the fire in the blood necessary to motivate Conservatives and the courage that would be needed to not be afraid of pissing off the Press and the NAACP, NOW, etc. which is what in my humble opinion, is what is needed for a Republican to make it in hostile territory.

Anyway, It doesn't surprise me that Franks' simply being black didn't attract many black voters. You can be certain that the black Left made every effort to make the fact that he was a Republican to be interpreted in the black community (is it large?) of CT as proving that he was less black than Chris Dodd. Either way, I really do not think he should be run again. We need a more fiery and more conservative candidate.

As for MD, I don't know if it is wise for Michael Steele to run, given that he only won the Lieutenant Governorship only last year. Alan Keyes has run and lost before, and his reputation has already been seriously soiled by the racial arsonists. Curry (I think his first name is Wayne) simply does not deserve the nomination for the Senate race. Another Arlen Specter may be better than Mikulski but he will be even weaker than Franks was in CT. I think your idea of his running for Steny Hoyer's seat is a much better idea than him running for the Senate. Either way, considering how popular Mikulski is in Maryland, I confess to much hope of this seat being winnable.

Oregon's got a tiny black population, so I don't see much of an upside to running a black candidate who doesn't have much name ID.

While I pretty much echo your points about House seats, I'm more concerned about the "higher-profile" seats, i.e. Governor, Senator, etc. because I think that, uniquely for black Republicans, they're more winnable than the more local black dominated seats ... and the cool thing about that is that they're also much more strategically important. My stance is that it is therefore not that important that a black Republican run in a state / district that has a substantial black population. Note that I agree that it is extremely important that we up the number of black GOP Congressman (without resorting to preferences) and I am very excited about Vernon Robinson. But, quite frankly, black Congressmen are a dime a dozen and the GOP having one or two doesn't really do that much for us strategically. The NAACP and its cohorts can easily dismiss (and demonize) them as "tokens" and go about still asserting that "GOP = Ku Klux Klan".

But a black GOP Governor or United States Senator ... now that would seriously cramp their style. It doesn't matter whether he / she represents Maryland with its huge black population or North Dakota with its near non-existent black population. If the only black U.S. Senator(s) / Governor(s) are Republicans, the Democrats and their handmaidens have to work a lot harder to terrify the black community with tales of all white (and even black) Republicans in Congress being secret members of the American Nazi Party, who can't wait to start working on legislation to legalize lynching.

Secondly, sh*tty deal though it may be (life has never been fair, after all), all black Republicans running for any office have the additional task of broadcasting it loud and clear that one need not be a Democrat, support high taxes, Partial Birth Abortion, racial preferences or worship Jesse Jackson and Bill Clinton to be "really black". Estrada has it easy compared to what black Republicans routinely go through. This basically means that even if a black Republican loses, so long as he / she runs a credible race and uses the bully pulpit his / her campaign would afford him at every reasonable opportunity to smash into the local racial arsonists' hold on the minority community, he / she would have advanced the ball that much further.

A lot of sensible yet Democrat-voting black people I know tend to be conservative on social issues. A substantial number are extremely unhappy about high taxes and extremely skeptical of big Leftist government programs, because (like everyone else) most are smart enough to see that they seem to discourage individual responsibility and punish initiative and success. And I can't think of one of them who is happy about the state of public education or crime-control in poor black neighborhoods.

The only thing that seems to be stopping them from voting for the GOP is the fact that for well over three decades, they have been taught and told (by organizations / individuals they feel they owe some allegiance to, like the NAACP / John Lewis for their past actions on behalf of civil rights) that there is something intrinsically "wrong" about voting for someone with an 'R' next to his name. The Press plays a huge part in this as well.

Being rather outspoken about being a Conservative and a Republican, I've had to slap down a lot of idiots calling me an "Uncle Tom" (which I don't react quietly too), usually in front of a largely black audience. I haven't lost a single argument yet. Almost every opponent was forced to concede that I could very well have come to the decision that Conservatism is the best path to progress for the black community and that it doesn't make me any less black than they are. Practically after every time, when it's over, people come up to me and tell me that they've never really thought about it "that way" before. And most of them are extremely well educated.

There is a name for this in psychology, I think. It's almost as if they need some sort of permission to actually think it through and vote their minds. It reminds me of the story of the Emperor's New Clothes. Everyone pretended that the Emperor's "new clothes" were simply too beautiful for words until a child gave them leave to acknowledge what they were seeing with their own eyes, by pointing and exclaiming: "The Emperor's naked!". That, in other words, is the black Republican's most important job when running for office, apart from winning; to give that permission by pointing at the racial arsonists and their handmaidens and shouting that the "Emperor is naked!".