North Korean Logic Explained

Connections ^ | March 3, 2003 | Warren Pollock

[John H K]

If the US chooses the path of war North Korean attacks will be on the US coastal cities using its merchant fleet as its delivery mechanism.

Sure.

[MEG33]

Well this is a lose lose situation!

[MEG33]

Well this is a lose lose situation!

[Post Toasties]

Kim Jong Il is just a tinpot dictator. If North Korea wants to unite with South Korea, the first thing it must do is drop its totalitarian government which is the only thing that is keeping them from unifying as Germany did when East Germany wisely cashed in its chips.

[Post Toasties]

If North Korea does not follow this route, it show only how abysmally stupid and/or inhuman its leadership is.

[Post Toasties]

...shows only....

[Post Toasties]

A great fallacy in the reasoning of this article is that the much hated by North Koreans Kim Jong Il and his minions represent the beliefs and interests of North Koreans. I reject such an assumption out of hand.

[Redcloak]

The simpler explanation is that Kim wants to be paid to sit down and shut up. He seems to be following that Western aphorism about squeaky wheels and grease.

[glorgau]

This could be what they are thinking, but it is impossible to achieve. I believe that they want reunification above all else, but they would be stupid to think that it will be on their terms, or that the communist party or The Great Leader are going to have any role in a reunited country that has any ability to democratically choose it's own leaders.

It may have been possible to do this back in the 70s or even the 80s (maybe) but that time has passed. The result will be no different than what happened with Germany. The South Koreans will pay for it, with mucho denero tossed in by Japan and the U.S. China will jeer from the sidelines and try to undermine _any_ process - just like the Democrats in congress.

Every negotiation starts off with the phrase "Ton kajiko issumnika?" (Do you have any money?) The real question is "How much will it take to buy off The Great Leader?"

All that said, the North Korean leadership is delusional and therefore dangerous.

Just my opinion.

[ggekko]

This analysis illustrates the dictum that the simplest explanation is best. To believe this analysis is to accord to North Korea a subtlety to their diplomacy that thay have never shown in the past.

North Korea is rattling its sabre to to try get Western aid just like they did under President Clinton. It is as simple as that.

[hinckley buzzard]

Interesting notion. It has a few serious quirks in it, but the basic problem is this: your "primary source" you "reached into" has led you to believe what the North Korean government wants you to believe is their point of view. He used your vanity to make a fool of you. He did not tell you what they really think or what they really intend.

Like Tommy Friedman with the "Saudi Peace Plan," you got patted on the head and snookered.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #1

N. Korean regime always shut off all options to her adversaries except two exreme choices, a total war or a full accomodation. N. Korean regime has always been a one-trick pony. They did it for 40 years since 60's. Even in this late stage, N. Korean regime still intends to come out on top eventually, unifying two Koreas on their terms. At least that is the game plan they stick to.

These days, the only upside is that the N. Korean system is breaking down from the bottom. Cracking are emgerging in their armor. The regime may buckle and break up, while still furiously charging forward and thinkng that it is a single step away from the total victory. In some sense, the regime is the eternal optimist. N. Korea shows how dangerous the mindless optimism can be. It will kill you eventually.

The best way to defeat N. Korea is to keep one's cool at all times and not overreact. If we respond to N. Korean regime in a cool but determined and deliberate manner, without giving in to unilateral accomodation, it may not even come to a shooting war.

[Squantos]

FYI........Stay Safe !

[John Valentine]

This analysis may be correct but it is trivial.

What it says, in essense, is tht North Korea wants to win, and they define winning as reuniting with South Korea on their terms.

It may be true that that is what the DPRK wants, but it is not among the range of available choices. They are not children, wishing for the moon. They need to go back to the Sojubang and have another think on this.

This is equally true if North Korea thinks that they can drive events in this direction by threat of war. If they become frustrated enough with their singular lack of success in this endeavor and decide that actual war is preferable to futile threats, it will be North Korea that is brought to ruin. After all, they are esentially ruined now. Their electrical grid has collapsed, their manufacturing sector is eseentially non-esistent, agriculture is in a ruinous state, medical care is a joke, education is in shambles, and only the military remains standing for now.

They will not succeed in bringing war to North America.

That is also a pipedream.

[Quix]

I think this is exceedingly perceptive.

It fits what I know of the Koreans.

[Quix]

Pride and a lot of craziness, evil etc. prevent that.

Interesting double-binds abound.

[Drammach]

Yes, Kim Jong Il is a tin pot dictator.
But one that rules by consent of the military.

If Kim fails to follow policy and stalinist ideology, he will be ousted.
Chances are, one of his sons would be installed as new leader, but it will be the one that is most compliant.

[Defiant]

He seems to be following that Western aphorism about squeaky wheels and grease.

I have heard that in Japan the saying is "the nail that sticks up gets hammered down." I like that lesson better for North Korea.

[Defiant]

Your posts always exhibit great insight.