***The Fog Of War***

Stardate: 0302.27

[Keith]

If I can read between the lines of the Wizards post.

SH was all ready to defend against a main thrust through Kuwait and an amphibious assault near Basra...also remember the little skirmish at Khafgi which made it look like taking Kuwait City would be street fighting...like people are worried about now...

Instead, Schwartzkopf showed us this major secret Schlieffen plan type of swing hugely west in Iraq before we even went over the berms in Kuwait...

this forced the Iraqis to flee Kuwait like a 60's looter in Watts....which of course led to the major destruction of Hussein's R Guard on the "Highway of death".

so...to sum....

I would suggest that the Russkies are letting us use bases...and so are other quiet areas (Jordan?). We are feignting in Kuwait? Turkey?...and coming in other ways.

I certainly don't see large armored columns advancing on Baghdad...

I liked the cryptic little note today that there were large Iraqi units heading south towards Baghdad with undertermined purpose...

...we have no idea whether these troops are loyal or not...or maybe WE do and SADDDAM DOES NOT!

;)

Take it for granted that the psyops people will deserve a major pat on the back for faking out SH on this one...

Maybe we should rememer Patton and the phony army before D-Day.

[John H K]

Instead, Schwartzkopf showed us this major secret Schlieffen plan type of swing hugely west in Iraq before we even went over the berms in Kuwait...

But we didn't; the Marines were over the berms in Kuwait befor the main part of the "Left Hook" even moved at all.

Actually what screwed up things is the forces in Kuwait went through the Iraqis like a hot knife through butter, the RG never counterattacked the attack in Kuwait like we expected; thus they weren't trapped and totally annihilated by the left hook.

[El Gato]

Anyone know the jist of Schwarzkopf's presentation?

Yeah, "we just kicked the sh*^ out of them." :) That and "Saddam is less than worthless as a military commander".

[pgkdan]

I remember those posts..."all will be clear by Tuesday"...what is isn't and what isn't is, the screw turns next week"...yadda yadda yadda. I used to hope he was a really deep insider too. Seems silly now, but it was fun then.

[Bob J]

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[walden]

Well, I'll bump this just so I can see what it says next week.

[EarlyBird]

Here is a link to an abrigded RealVideo version of the Schwarzkopf briefing:

http://www.c-span.org/iraq/history.asp

Scroll down to the fifth link (PRESIDENT GEORGE H.W. BUSH ON BEGINNING OF GULF WAR); the briefing follows Bush's message.

I've been toying with some what-ifs since the back and forth with Turkey:

What if the 4th Inf Div is already unloaded and in position in northern Iraq?
What if coalition infantry and armored units from Europe have already been repositioned through Turkey to northern Iraq?
What if there are actually more coalition forces in northern Iraq than in Kuwait?
What if all of the diplomatic wrangling is all a deception?
What if the French and Germans were asked to play the role of the obstinate anti-war crusaders?
What if Hans Blix was asked to be wishy-washy in his reports?
What if the security council is really united and determined to disarm Saddam?
What if instead of Saddam playing the United Nations, the United Nations is playing Saddam?

All of the major military operations we have undertaken in the past -- including Desert Storm -- have involved elements of deception. This is how we minimize casualties.

What if all of this "diplomacy" has been nothing more than the Mother of All Deceptions?

It's delicious to contemplate. If true, we could strike at an unexpected time from an unexpected direction with an overwhelming force and take out Saddam's WMDs before he even knows we're there.

[mhking]

From PoliticsNH.com:

Rove cancels trip to NH... Karl Rove, President George W. Bush's chief political advisor, was scheduled to speak at the Hillsborough and Merrimack County Lincoln Day Dinner on March 12th. PoliticsNH.com has learned Rove has told the county committees he will be unable to attend.

[SamAdams76]

The clue is in Stormin' Norman's presentation to the press, and is there for those who find it. I can't be any more specific.

Well my re-collection of that briefing was that the Iraqis were duped into believing a huge amphibious landing was to occur from the Persian Gulf into then Iraqi-occupied Kuwait. Instead, the ground attack came from the south (Saudi Arabia) and they were overwhelmed.

Well it appears we have possibly a similar deception operation going on now. This U.S. "spat" with Turkey is, I believe, engineered to throw the Iraqis off guard. In fact, Iraqi troops have already started moving south, perhaps convinced that no imminent attack will come from the Turkish border anytime soon.

Well, that's my semi-educated guess.

[XEHRpa]

What if the French and Germans were asked to play the role of the obstinate anti-war crusaders?

I like the way you think, but I take exception to one detail. I could see the French playing this role because Chiraq is from the "right wing" party and the French seem to have an affinity for these sort of parlor charades of intrigue.

On the other hand, The Germans can't lie convincingly (except to other Germans I suppose), Schroeder and clan are left wingnuts, and their shame would be considered a positive byproduct of this whole affair.

Seeing the French leave Schroeder hanging alone would be sweet revenge.

[Keith]

I like your thinking...only thing that worries me is the southern troop movement by the Iraqis...WMD dispersion retreat?

[Trust but Verify]

It's all a very lovely thought, isn't it? Let's hope you're right. And BTW, thanks for your effort.

[The Wizard]

It is my profound hope that next weekend finds this behind us.

[section9]

There's always the possibility that the Russians and the French will abstain, then throw in two airborne units to get their spots at the Peace Conference.

Suppose the Russians go to abstention, as do the French. The French throw in the 2me Regiment Entrange Parachutiste of the French Foreign Legion while the Russians throw in a Guards Airborne unit, such as the Iron Hammer Division or the Preobrazhensky Guards.

There are a couple of ways to go in: through the North and South, as we suppose, and through Jordan and across the Iranian frontier.

It is possible that we've made an arrangement with the Iranians for us to stage a unit out of their country.

Anyhoo, the geography dictates an approach to Baghdad from some or all of those directions. But there's something else: Saddam thinks in linear terms. He expects a march on Baghdad. He doesn't expect us to show up in Baghdad on D-Day.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[Trust but Verify]

I saw Bob McGinnis (sp?) of greta's show last night and he said there are countries, in cluding Jordan who are saying one thing publicly and in private doing another. Seemed to me to say any or all of the scenarios you posted are possible.

One thing we do know, this Administration is not going to talk about their real plans and put our soldiers and our allies in jeopardy.

[section9]

My thoughts exactly. It's in everyone's interest to see Saddam go, no matter what is said publicly. They're just helping us do the heavy lifting.

Methinks there is a massive headfake going on here.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[EarlyBird]

It seems that part of the deception plan is to keep everyone off balance. Today's threat by Russia to use the veto is the latest example. This after it was announced yesterday that Bush and Putin had come to an unspecified agreement.

If this is a massive headfake, the thing to watch is the status of the inspectors. If Blix is in on this, there must be a plan to get them safely out. I hope we see some sign of their removal today, so we can get this over with.

[The Wizard]

I am with you.......

[Petronski]

I will say myself that I think this whole thing with Turkey and a second front is a feint and misdirection.

[EarlyBird]

Hey Chris and Wiz,

We all signed up on FR the same month, almost 5 years ago! Great minds think alike...