2003-02-14 / Agence France-Presse / Defense Minister Tang Yiau-min (´öÂ`©ú) said yesterday the military had been put on a state of alert for fear China could take advantage of any war in Iraq to launch an invasion of the island.
Tang warned that Beijing's hostility towards Taipei was as strong as ever despite the unprecedented civilian flights between Taipei and Shanghai over the Lunar New Year holiday period.
"They have yet to give up their attempt to take over Taiwan by force. This was clearly stated by (President) Jiang Zemin (¦¿¿A¥Á) in the Chinese Communist Party's 16th Party Congress documents," Tang told a press conference here.
China could decide to attack its arch rival when the world's attention was preoccupied with war in the Gulf.
"The Chinese communists could cash in on such an occasion," said Tang.
"They could sabotage and attack our banking systems, democracy and other social institutions which are superior to those on the mainland."
The defense ministry has also stepped up security and its monitoring of Chinese troop movements and improved its crisis management capability.
While ruling out any possibility of Taiwan's involvement in a U.S.-led war against Iraq, the minister said President Chen Shui-bian's (³¯¤ô«ó) government would provide humanitarian aid to refugees.
Tang also defended Chen's recent announcement in which he ruled out the possibility of direct cross-strait flights even after the resumption of air links with China following a half century hiatus.
Civilian planes would instead be required to fly on a detour for national security reasons even after direct cross-strait transport links are opened up, Chen insisted.
"The Taiwan Strait is a shield (for Taiwan). Wouldn't it be just what the Chinese communists wanted if the shield was removed?" Tang said.
Six Taiwan airlines operated a total of eight chartered flights to and from China for the first time during the Lunar New Year period from January 26 to February 10, but they had to transit Hong Kong or Macau.
Local business and industrial leaders have pushed for direct links between the Taiwan and China, insisting they would help lower shipping costs and facilitate economic ties across the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwanese businesses are estimated to have invested some US$70 billion in China since 1987.
Commenting on China's growing missile threat, Tang said Taiwan had been working to build its missile shield.
"Research and development efforts have got underway to build a missile defense system. Hopefully the target could be arrived at within the next 10 years," he said, without going into details.
An attack--maybe, although I tend to doubt it. An invasion--impossible. The PRC doesn't have much in the way of amphibious capability, and won't any time soon.
My only quarrel with your scenario is that she wouldn't dream of refusing her masters.
She's more of a commie and America hater than they are.
Your friend may be right, but it is NOT the conclusion to which we came on the US-China Strategic Review Commission. Most of what we heard suggested that China has a considerable airlift capacity and lots of trained fighters with parachutes.
But time will tell. It is often a mistake to underestimate a potential enemy's capabilities.
AN ENCOURAGING SLANT AND POSSIBILITY:
REPLY TO: dmcg_98 WITH another perspective on the bigger related issue. MUCH APPRECIATED THIS POST.
FYI: ACTION INFO to AGGRESSIVE PRAYER LIST
[BOLD & COLOR EMPHASIS Qx's]
BLESSINGS,
Qx
--------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: Stan Coates
To: ap@myhome.net
Sent: Sunday, February 16, 2003 11:36 AM Subject: China Salutes You! - Cindye Coates
China Salutes You!
Cindye Coates
The churches of Asia salute you. (1 Corinthians 16:19)
so that all they which dwelt in Asia heard the word of the Lord Jesus.
(Acts 19:10)
The Vision:
A few months ago, I had a vision during our worship service at Solomon's Porch. I saw Chinese people standing on the shoreline facing the Pacific Ocean. They were standing tall and noble, chin up, chest out . saluting!
The 1st Interpretation:
Then, I heard.
"The churches of Asia salute you, Church of America. You brought them the Gospel. They are honoring you in intercession. If you will do likewise and pray for the Church of China, I will cause their government to align with yours in a holy alliance. I will turn the hearts of the Chinese to court your favor and a bridge will be built from east to west. A revolution will occur now in the 2nd heaven if you will hear the words of this prophesy and take heed."
The 2nd Interpretation:
Next I heard.
" North Korea believes that China will back them in aggression. This is a lie. China will not align itself with anyone who opposes America if you will worship now! Sing a song of deliverance over China. Worship Jesus as Emperor of China. Pray for the Peace of Jerusalem (Jesus) to be known all over China now!"
The Song:
Pastor Stan Coates (who is quite a skillful psalmist) began to play a lovely pentatonic melody of prayer on the keyboard. It was revealed to him that the Chinese use the "pentatonic scale" leaving out the 5th note, which is "C." They consider the 5th note sacred. The 5th note symbolizes grace! The "C" represents Christ! We believe that God is restoring the 5th note to Chinese music! It takes 7 notes to complete a scale and Chinese music is incomplete without the 5th. This is a musical illustration of a spiritual condition.
As Pastor Stan played a gentle melody. I began to sing a spiritual song.
The Church of Asia honors you.
You are the ones who brought us Truth.
For all the trouble you went to
The Church of Asia salutes you.
And now we know the time has come
For all God's people to be one
No matter what our race or tongue
We'll work until the job is done.
Awake to prayer now in the West-
Your Love will surely pass the test!
Upon God's faithfulness we'll rest-
Good is the enemy of best!
(*This service was recorded and is available upon request. solomonsporchfwc@juno.com)
Lets agree now!
Father, we come boldly into the throne room as we have been summoned. It is now that we need grace and favor in time of need. We decree and declare that the earth is the Lord's and the fullness thereof! Therefore China is the Lord's! China belongs to God! Jesus is king (emperor) of China!
Father we cast down every idol and every thought that would exalt itself above the knowledge of Christ in China. Your Word says that,"That none should perish- but ALL come to the saving knowledge of Christ!" God we declare that none perish unless they have heard and seen your love, God!
We loose deception off China and bind Truth to China in Jesus name! We decree that the gates of hell shall not prevail against the Church of China. We
Commission winds of angels to blow across China with visitations of supernatural happening that will point to finished work of Jesus.
As John prayed for the Churches of Asia in Rev. 1:4 we pray also for the Church in China.
Grace be to Church in China and peace, from Him which is, which was and which is to come; and from the 7 Spirits of God before His throne found in Isaiah 11:2.
(1) The spirit of the LORD shall rest upon China, (2) the spirit of wisdom and (3) understanding, (4) the spirit of counsel and (5) might, (6) the spirit of knowledge and of (7) the fear of the LORD in Jesus holy name!
To God be all the glory!
More details for intercessors:
Intercessors love details. Here is some information to understand how to pray for the Church in China.
Statistics
Population: 1.26 billion
Religion: 96% Taoist & Buddhist 3% Muslim ~1% Christian (est.) Communism: 59% of China is declared to be Communist all of whom are atheist.
Note: Taoism (communion with nature), along with Buddhism (concepts of the after-life AKA Reincarnation) and Confucianism (moral & ethical philosophy), became one of the three great religions of China. This is a strong hold that MUST be broken in intercession over China! A 3-folded chord is not easily broken but it CAN BE BROKEN as we declare the finished work of Jesus over China!!!
What is Taoism?
Tao (pronounced "Dow") can be roughly translated into English as "path, or the way." It is basically indefinable. It has to be experienced. It "refers to a power which envelops, surrounds and flows through all things, living and non-living. The Tao regulates natural processes and nourishes balance in the Universe. It embodies the harmony of opposites (i.e. there would be no love without hate, no light without dark, no male without female.)"
The founder of Taoism is believed by many to be Lao-Tse (604-531 BCE), a contemporary of Confucius. (Alternate spellings: Lao Tze, Lao Tsu, Lao Tzu, Laozi, Laotze, etc.). He was searching for a way that would avoid the constant feudal warfare and other conflicts that disrupted society during his lifetime. The result was his book: Tao-te-Ching (a.k.a. Daodejing). Others believe that he is a mythical character.
Taoism started as a combination of psychology and philosophy but evolved into a religious faith in 440 CE when it was adopted as a state religion. At that time Lao-Tse became popularly venerated as a deity. Taoism, along with Buddhism and Confucianism, became one of the three great religions of China. With the end of the Ch'ing Dynasty in 1911, state support for Taoism ended. Much of the Taoist heritage was destroyed during the next period of warlordism. After the Communist victory in 1949, religious freedom was severely restricted. "The new government put monks to manual labor, confiscated temples, and plundered treasures. Several million monks were reduced to less than 50,000" by 1960. 3 During the Cultural Revolution in China from 1966 to 1976, much of the remaining Taoist heritage was destroyed. Some religious tolerance has been restored under Deng Xiao-ping from 1982 to the present time.
Taoism currently has about 20 million followers, and is primarily centered in Taiwan. About 30,000 Taoists live in North America; 1,720 in Canada (1991 census). Taoism has had a significant impact on North American culture in areas of "acupuncture, herbalism, holistic medicine, meditation and martial arts..."
Taoist Beliefs and Practices:
Taoism coexists in China with Confucian tradition. · Toa is a force that flows through all life. · Each believer's goal is to become one with Tao. · The priesthood views the many gods as a manifestation of Tao. · The concept of a personified deity is foreign concept to Taoist. · The concept of Creation of a Universe is also foreign to them. · They do not pray as Christians do; there is no God to hear the prayers or to act on them. They seek answers to life's problems through inner meditation and outer observation. · In contrast with the beliefs and practices of the priesthood, most of the laity have "believed that worshipping the gods in heaven was a rehearsal of attitudes toward secular authorities. · On the other hand, the demons and ghosts of hell acted like and were treated like bullies, outlaws, and threatening strangers. · Taoists see time in a circle as opposed to a line as in the west. · Yin (dark side) is the breath that formed the earth. Yang (light side) is the breath that formed the heavens. They symbolize pairs of opposites, which are seen throughout the universe, such as good and evil, light and dark, male and female. Intervention by human civilization upsets the balances of Yin and Yang. The symbol of Taoism, seen at the top of this page, represents Yin and Yang in balance. · "Tao" surrounds everyone and therefore everyone must listen to find enlightenment. ·
Taoists generally have an interest in promoting health and vitality. · Development of virtue is one's chief task. The Three Jewels to be sought are compassion, moderation and humility. · One should plan in advance and consider carefully each action before making it. · A Taoists is kind to other individuals, largely because such an action tends to be reciprocated. · Taoists follow the art of "wu wei," which is to let nature take its course. For example, one should allow a river to flow towards the sea unimpeded; do not erect a dam, which would interfere with its natural flow.
What is Buddhism?
· Buddhism is the fourth largest religion in the world, being exceeded in numbers only by Christianity, Islam and Hinduism.
· . It was founded in Northern India by the Buddha, Siddhartha Gautama. He was born 563 BC in Lumbini which is in modern-day Nepal.
· At the age of 29, he left his wife, children and political involvements in order to seek enlightenment and assumed the title Buddha (one who has awakened.)
· He promoted The Middle Way, rejecting both extremes of the mortification of the flesh and of hedonism as paths toward the state of Nirvana. He had many disciples and accumulated a large public following by the time of his death.
· Two and a half centuries later, a council of Buddhist monks collected his teachings and the oral traditions of the faith into written form, called the "Tripitaka." This included a very large collection of traditions; most are called Sutras (discourses).
· There are 4 Buddhists traditions in the East & West.
· Mahayana Buddhism- (Eastern Buddhism) is the predominant religion in China, Japan, and Korea and much of Vietnam. The tradition entered China during the Han dynasty (206-220 BC). It was accepted initially among the working class and gradually penetrated the ruling class. Buddhism reached Japan in the 6th century. They also engage in Dana, Sila, Chanting, Worship and Pilgrimage.
· Therevada Buddhism- (Southern Buddhism) -
· Tibetan Buddhism- (Northern Buddhism)
· Zen Buddhism- (Western Buddhism known in America)
· Concepts and practices include: Dana - thoughtful, ceremonial giving, Sila - accepting Buddhist teaching and following it in practice; refraining from killing, stealing, wrong behavior, use of drugs. Karma - the balance of accumulated sin and merit, which will determine one's future in the present life, and the nature of the next life to come (this is the absence of grace), The Cosmos - consists of billions of worlds grouped into clusters; clusters are grouped into galaxies, which are themselves grouped into super-galaxies. The universe also has many levels: four underworlds and 21 heavenly realms. Paritta - ritual chanting, Worship - of relics of a Buddha, of items made by a Buddha, or of symbolic relics. Festivals - days of the full moon, and three other days during the lunar cycle are celebrated. There is a new year's festival, and celebrations tied to the agricultural year. Pilgrimages - particularly to Buddhist sites in Sri Lanka and India.
What is Confucianism?
K'ung Fu Tzu (commonly pronounced Confucius in English) was born in 551 BCE in the state of Lu (modern day Shantung Province). He lived during the Chou dynasty, and era known for its moral laxity. Later in life, he wandered through many states of China, giving advice to their rulers. He accumulated a small band of students during this time. The last years of his life were spent back in Lu, where he devoted himself to teaching.
His writings deal primarily with individual morality and ethics, and the proper exercise of political power by the rulers. In China, and some other areas in Asia, the social ethics and moral teachings of Confucius are blended with the Taoist communion with nature and Buddhist concepts of the afterlife, to form a set of complementary, peacefully co-existent and ecumenical religions.
There are approximately 6 million Confucians in the world. About 26,000 live in North America; almost all of the remainder are found throughout China and the rest of Asia.
Confucian ethical teachings include the following values: Li: includes ritual, propriety, etiquette, etc., Hsiao: love within the family: love of parents for their children and of children for their parents, Yi: righteousness, Xin: honesty and trustworthiness, Jen: benevolence, humaneness towards others; the highest Confucian virtue, Chung: loyalty to the state, etc.
I pray that this information will help equip us to pray, witness to and love the Chinese.
* Special Note to all Bible scholars:
I realize that the "Asia" in scripture literally refers to Turkey and the Mediterranean. However, God used the word "Asia" prophetically to me in this vision to symbolize China in a NOW present day truth.
Pastor Cindye D. Coates M.Div.
Atlanta Office- 770-794-4995
www.SolomonsPorch-Atlanta.org
----------------------------
LORD, MAY IT BE SO AS WE PRAY. Please call all those who Love you to pray according to your Spirit's will in this matter. Give us the faith and persistence to see victory in this awesome issue. In Jesus' Name, Amen. So Be It.
"That's just plain stupid. Mounting an effective amphibious or airborne assault against a heavily defended position it a complex task. One can't overcome that by having enough "manpower" to throw at it."
Look back to history: in the Korean I, Communist China sent over 1 million Chinese to their deaths in battling the US/UN/SK forces.
So, this scenerio is not out of the question.
"The US submarine fleet would strangle the Chinese Navy, and the other surface units of the 7th Fleet wouldnt sit idly by."
"Additional carriers could be sent there without even drawing from the Atlantic fleet stock by drawing upon the 20 day reserve fleet MARAD maintains. They have 2 carriers in fleet reserve in 20 day standby that could be reactivated."
Part of the main reason why the PRC has not made its move against Taiwan is because it does not believe that it has the capability to completely neutralize the US 7th Fleet. Part of their planning is a calculation that if they can "scare" the US into thinking twice on coming to Taiwan's aid without having to fire a shot, then they win.
What I mean is that their acquiring of Sunburn and Yakhont "carrier killer" missiles and the Shkval rocket torpedoes is meant as a deterant to the US carrier fleet and subs. It's this question that they have asked again and again: "Would you trade LA for Taipei?" or in this case: "Would you trade the Kitty Hawk or whatever aircraft carrier for helping Taiwan?"
The following is an interesting and long article on a possible Red Pearl Harbor:
http://www.yowusa.com/Archive/July2002/plan1/plan1.htm
China Is Preparing A
Pearl Harbor Style Attack
YOWUSA.COM, July 28, 2002
Marshall Masters
China’s disputes over Taiwan (which is seeking statehood) and the Sprately islands are pretexts to its eventual expansionist aims of becoming Australia’s newest next-door neighbor. And standing in the way of China’s aims is the American Navy and in particular, the US aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk based at the Port of Yokosuka, which is located at the entrance to Tokyo Bay. In order to prevail, China must kill the Kitty Hawk with what will be a Pearl Harbor style sneak attack using modern Russian-supplied weapons and a Cold War Soviet naval doctrine called the “battle of the first salvo.”
This article will briefly examine China’s “battle of the first salvo” strategy and the ships and weapons it will use to destroy the Kitty Hawk as well as other American carriers.
At the outset is must be stated that if the Chinese could at any time use one of their nuclear ballistic missile to destroy an American carrier task force. But that would invite similar retaliations and the question then becomes, will American flinch.
During the last decade, the Chinese had managed to purchase sufficient access to the Clinton White House to know that America would flinch in such a case and that Clinton and Gore would abandon the Taiwanese rather than risk a nuclear exchange. However, that changed in April 2001 when an American EP-3 surveillance plane was forced to land at a military airfield at Lingshui on the southern end of Hainan.
Over the ensuing weeks, the Chinese tested the mettle of newly elected President George Bush while holding the 24 members of the crew as political hostages. What they found was that when pushed to the wall, Bush is firm and not the kind of man to flinch. You nuke me and I nuke you – in spades.
With a first strike nuclear option off the table, the Chinese are still bent on destroying our aircraft carriers and will do so with highly advanced conventional weapons, which is not implausible as their naval capabilities are on the rise while America’s continue to wane.
The Aircraft Carrier and the Projection of Power
Without question, the modern aircraft carrier represents the most powerful class of warship ever created by man and America has used them to project power around the globe in a manner. When an American carrier is stationed off the shores of a troublesome nation, they get that “reach out an touch somebody” kind of awareness. Or in the words of former President Bill Clinton, "When word of crisis breaks out in Washington, it's no accident the first question that comes to everyone's lips is; where is the nearest carrier?"
Yet, it was Clinton who systemically stripped away much of America’s sea power leaving us significantly weakened. In the case of Taiwan conflict, President Clinton knowingly diminished our forces in response to China’s expansionist aims.
The Strom Thurmond Institute, 1999
AMERICAN MILITARY OPTIONS IN A TAIWAN STRAIT CONFLICT
United States-People’s Republic of China relations since 1972 have varied from warm to frigid. Of most concern to U.S. policy makers and defense planners is the PRC’s military buildup absent any real threat to her national interests in East Asia and her continued refusal to rule out the use of force to reunite Taiwan with the Mainland.
Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States is committed to insure that any reunification is by peaceful means. The task of insuring Taiwan’s security will primarily fall on the U.S. Navy.
Given the present downsizing of the Navy and the buildup of PRC naval forces, it is questionable whether the United States would prevail should conflict come in the early 21st century.
There is no doubt that Chinese military leaders have witnessed the ability of America to project power with its aircraft carriers time-and-again. Consequently, the Chinese have embarked on a very ambitious and expensive program to develop their aircraft carrier program.
Given the huge trade imbalance (in their favor) with America the financing formula for their aircraft carrier program is simple. Americans buy hair dryers made in brutal Chinese labor camps by jailed political dissidents for hard cash and then uses that money to purchase state of the art Russian ships, missiles and submarines.
Consequently, Americans have great looking hair and China has a great looking navy with which it will set out to kill hundreds of thousands of neatly coiffured Americans. To paraphrase Chairman Mao, "All power comes from the end of an exported hair dryer,"
But how could the Chinese be so politically incorrect to be that cold-blooded?
Vengeance and History
From the American viewpoint (with the exception of actress Jane Fonda), the use of aircraft carriers has always been about projecting power for legitimate purposes.
From the Chinese communist viewpoint, it has been about the use of Anglo navies to enforce Anglo policies. In this regard, one very painful memory for the Chinese is the Anglo-Chinese War of 1839.
Ch'ing China
The Opium Wars
The Opium War, also called the Anglo-Chinese War, was the most humiliating defeat China ever suffered.
By the 1830's, the English had become the major drug-trafficking criminal organization in the world. Growing opium in India, the East India Company shipped tons of opium into Canton, which it traded for Chinese manufactured goods and for tea. This trade had produced, quite literally, a country filled with drug addicts, as opium parlors proliferated all throughout China in the early part of the nineteenth century. In an effort to stem the tragedy, the imperial government made opium illegal in 1836 and began to aggressively close down the opium dens.
War broke out when Chinese junks attempted to turn back English merchant vessels in November of 1839; although this was a low- level conflict, it inspired the English to send warships in June of 1840. The Chinese, with old-style weapons and artillery, were no match for the British gunships, which ranged up and down the coast shooting at forts and fighting on land. Finally, in 1842, the Chinese were forced to agree to an ignomious peace under the Treaty of Nanking.
From a Western point of view, this happened 163 years ago (or 652 cooked quarterly corporate reports ago) and the British are still suffering from a colonial drug lord guilt trip.
However, from the Eastern perspective it happened the day before yesterday and it taught the Chinese that if they ever hoped to prevail in a major battle with modern Anglo navies, they would need modern weapons and the knowledge of how to use them with the greatest effect.
Yes, the Chinese want their own aircraft carriers and they will have them. But equally important in their eyes is the need to know how best to destroy Anglo aircraft carriers as well.
How To Kill an Anglo Aircraft Carrier
It stands to reason that aircraft carriers like everything else engineered by man, are more vulnerable to attack in some places and way than in others. Given that China’s first target is the Kitty Hawk, it is incumbent upon their military planners to find the structural weak spots of a vessel of this size.
One such vessel is the partially completed Russian aircraft carrier, the Varyag, which was originally named the Riga. Once the ship is ready for sea, it will have a displacement of 67,000 tons versus the Kitty Hawk, with a displacement of some 80,800 tons when fully loaded. Commissioned in April 1961, the Kitty Hawk uses 8 conventional boilers and steam turbines for propulsion as compared with the newer, Nimitz Class nuclear-powered carrier with a displacement of 97,000 tons fully loaded.
When the Varyag was first purchased, the speculation was that it would be converted to a floating amusement park or casino. The Chinese position that the Varyag would become an amusement part was bolstered by the fact that China had purchased two other aircraft carriers from Russia, the Kiev and Minsk and turned into floating amusement parks.
However, China paid far more for the Varyag than its scrap metal value, it took a great deal of persuasion for the Chinese to convince the Turks to let it pass through the Dardanelles strait. Now that Varyag has arrived in China after a problematic journey it has been renamed the Chinluck.
The Jamestown Foundation, March 14, 2002
CHINA'S CARRIER OF CHANCE
China's new ex-Soviet, ex-Ukrainian aircraft carrier is now in a Dalian navy shipyard. Could the partially completed Kuznetsov-class carrier Varyag become the first aircraft carrier of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)?
Since the early 1980s the PLA has been gathering actual carriers and all assorted carrier information to build a detailed database. In 1985, it purchased the Australian carrier Melbourne. In 1995, the Spanish company Bazan pitched its large conventional carrier concept to China. In 1996, the Far Eastern Economic Review [FEER] reported that China had tried to buy the soon-to-be-retired French carrier Clemenceau. Since then, China is reported to have purchased the engineering blueprints for the Soviet Kyiv-class carrier. Subsequently, it bought the Varyag. It might well be that the Varyag was purchased simply as a way to expand the PLAN's carrier information database.
In the meantime, the Chinese have also purchased and licensed Sukhoi Su-27 fighters for their new aircraft carriers from Russia. China has also purchased 40 of the more advanced Su-30MK fighter jets from Russia at a cost of roughly two billion US dollars.
Is the Varyag now renamed the Chinluck going to be the only Chinese aircraft carrier. No, and what is equally interesting is the unique manner in which China is now training its new naval air wings.
AFP, January 12, 2000
China's First Aircraft Carrier
Ready for Service in 2005
HONG KONG - China's first locally-built aircraft carrier will be in full service in 2005, with construction expected to start this year, a press report said Wednesday.
The 4.8 billion yuan (585 million dollar) aircraft carrier is slated to be in the water in 2003, but it will take another two years to have it fully ready for service, the independent Chinese-language Ming Pao daily said citing an unidentified source.
There are plans to build further aircraft carriers every three years, the report said.
More than 100 people, mostly aviation school graduates, have undergone a two-year training period at an unnamed northern airport, using a similator based on the landing pad of the decommissioned Australian aircraft carrier "Melbourne" which China bought for scrap, it said.
Have the Chinese purchased enough technology to build a carrier fleet without help from the Russians? According to a Chinese newspaper report this year, China as already approved the construction of two aircraft carriers in Chinese ship years, which are to be finished by 2009.
Now that China understands aircraft carriers well enough to build their own, they also know how to destroy American aircraft carriers as well. To this end, China has worked with equal resolve in building the first attack forces it will need to destroy the Kitty Hawk as well as other American carrier with a surprise attack.
Surprise is the Key Element
At some point, China will make its move against the Anglo navy off its shores and when it does the first and most important target will be an American aircraft carrier like the Kitty Hawk.
Knowing their own relative strengths and weaknesses, the Chinese have adopted the a Cold War Soviet naval doctrine called the “battle of the first salvo.” Like the Chinese, the Soviets also understood the need to destroy America’s carriers at the outset of any widespread conflict and their doctrine is based upon a speedy and sudden surprise attack. But this is not a new idea.
When the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 their designated primary targets were not the battleships, which were nonetheless important. Their primary targets were the aircraft carriers Enterprise and Lexington, then operating from Pearl Harbor.
At the time of the attack, the Enterprise was about 200 miles west of Pearl and steaming towards Hawaii and the Lexington was 400 miles to the west of Hawaii and steaming towards Midway.
Had the Japanese been able to destroy the Enterprise the Lexington during their attack on Pearl Harbor, they would have also invaded the Hawaiian Islands as well, putting America’s west coast within relative striking distance.
While the Japanese were able to achieve the element of surprise and inflict great damage, the attack would eventually prove to be a failure. Perhaps it was this sense of failure that drove the Japanese to take great risks, which in turn cost them four of their own carriers at the Battle of Midway, which turned the tide of war in favor of the Americans.
In terms of creating the element of surprise, we can expect many of the same moves from the Chinese that we experience prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor, beginning with deceitful peace initiatives.
Several months prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Japanese began talking about peace and misled many Americans into thinking that their intentions were genuine even as their naval armada sailed towards Japan’s “Day of Infamy.”
China’s Coming Day of Infamy
While some will naturally assume that a heavy amount of saber rattling would precede any surprise attack that is Western thinking at work. Therefore, what we can expect from the Chinese is a long period of relative peaceful political quiescence and gratuitous co-operation instead. This is Eastern thinking and this fact should not be swept under the table for the sake of being politically correct. This is simply the way of the world and unless we are prepared to embrace that concept, we will be caught by surprise again.
It is likely that when the attack comes, most of our naval forces will already be tied up in the Gulf and Mediterranean and series of small skirmishes between mainland China and Taiwan will necessitate the presence of the Kitty Hawk in the waters near China. That is when the attack will come. It will be violent, sudden and without provocation. With the destruction of the Kitty Hawk and the American fleet in disarray, the Chinese will capitalize on their momentum and move to seize Taiwan.
In addition to invading Taiwan, China will also move to block America’s ability to quickly bolster its forces in the Pacific by destroying the key “anchor ports” of the Panama Canal.
The New American, February 12, 2001
Red Dragon Over Panama
Hutchison Whampoa, a Hong Kong- based company closely tied to Beijing, now operates the Canal’s "anchor ports." Hutchison is a partner with the notorious China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO), the merchant marine of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Many have commented about the crucial military role played by the Canal in supporting our forward-deployed forces. However, there are strategic implications to the Canal’s commercial use as well. Every year, more than 190 million tons of cargo pass through the Canal; grain exports from the American Midwest to the Far East alone account for 23 percent of all traffic through the Canal. Imagine what would happen to our current transportation system if the Canal were shut down and even a portion of its current traffic had to be routed across the continental United States. The gridlock would virtually shut down our harbors, highways, and railroads.
In addition to these steps, China will also move to further wreck the American economy by flooding the world market with the billions of US Treasury bonds they’ve purchased from Japan. This possibility is within reason, given that both China and Japan have just recently abandoned the US dollar as their reserve currency in favor of the Euro.
Therefore, the issue is not whether we will come to Taiwan’s defense. Rather, the issue is will we come to our own economic defense with Taiwan representing an important outpost of democracy and free markets. All idealism aside, the bottom line is: Can America willingly accept the role of suckling China’s hind teat after they insult us with Pearl Harbor style surprise attack?
Regardless of what the dovish talking heads are saying on television these days, the American government is not about to be caught with its pants down again.
First Time Shame on You
The Irish have an old saying, “The first time shame on you. The second time, shame on me.” After the attack on Pearl Harbor, America woke up to the need to actively prevent the possibility of such another attack. Keep in mind that had the Japanese destroyed the carriers Enterprise and Lexington during their attack on Pearl Harbor, they would have invaded Hawaii and then eventually California.
Consequently, our carriers are our first line of defense and knowing what kinds of weapons could be used against them is important.
Torpedoes represent one of the most deadly threats to our carriers and Russia’s Shkval supercavitating torpedo is perhaps the deadliest. A man by the name of Edmond Pope, was buying information on the open market about and came very close to spending the rest of his natural life wasting away in Lefortovo prison after being arrested for espionage by the Russian Federal Security Service (Its acronym—FSB—stands for the Russian equivalent of "Federal Secret Service," namely "Federal'naya Sluzhba Bezopasnosti.")
Why did the FSB arrest him? If you read the details surrounding his arrest for gathering information about the Shkval torpedo, the facts quickly become patently obvious.
Albion Monitor, December 10, 2000
Soviet-Style Show Trial Sends Warning to U.S
In a chilling reminder of the Cold War, a Russian court sentenced a former U.S. naval intelligence officer last week to 20 years hard labor for espionage.
Edmond Pope, now a 54-year old businessman, was arrested in Moscow by the Russian security service, FSB (formerly KGB), as he was buying plans from a Russian scientist for a revolutionary torpedo known as 'Shkval,' or 'Squall.' The seven-week trial was the usual travesty one expects from Russia's judicial system, a holdover from Soviet days when anyone accused by the state was found automatically guilty by the rubber-stamp courts.
The real purpose of the trial was to send a warning: the 'everything's for sale' era of Boris Yeltsin was over. The KGB's hard men, with President Vladimir Putin at their head, were shutting down Moscow's military-secrets mart.
The most interesting part of the 'affaire' Pope was what the American businessman was after: plans for Russia's remarkable 'Squall' torpedo. This weapon, 533mm in diameter by 8.23 meters long, has a reported underwater speed in excess of 200 knots (220mph), a range of 20 miles, and an operational depth of 400 meters. Naval sources say 'Squall' may even be able to travel at 300mph (500 kph) underwater.
'Squall' attains its unprecedented speed by making use of 'super-cavitation,' a hydro-dynamic principal known since Isaac Newton's day, but still only partially understood by western scientists. The missile is discharged from a sub's torpedo tubes by compressed air, then uses propellers until well clear of the sub. Or, it may be catapulted out. Then, a rocket motor fires, propelling the weapon to high speed. The 'Squall's' flattened nose streams water backwards and away from the missile's body, causing a large air bubble to form around the torpedo, which is maintained by high-pressure air pumped from the torpedo's nose.
Conventional torpedoes travel at 35-45 knots; the fastest western weapon, Britain's 'Spearfish,' hits 75 knots. All struggle against water resistance. By contrast, the air bubble from super-cavitation that envelops 'Squall' almost totally eliminates friction with water, permitting enormous speed. The only part of 'Squall' that actually touches water is its nose.
Thanks to its great velocity, 'Squall' can destroy an enemy sub before it has time to react. The system can reportedly be configured to hit surface or submerged targets at long ranges, up to 250 kms, by using a carrier rocket. Guidance, however, is a major problem. Some intelligence sources say the torpedo is unguided, in essence, an underwater bullet. One may envisage a submarine firing salvos of 'Squalls' at surface or underwater targets. Russian sources claim a guidance system for 'Squall' has been developed.
'Squall,' however, has a major weakness. Its highly volatile rocket fuel is extremely dangerous. Western naval experts are convinced a series of massive weapons explosions ripped apart and sank the huge Russian submarine 'Kursk' last August, with the loss of 118 sailors.
Now comes the “good news,” but only if you’re a Russian defense worker. Russia recently sold 40 Shkval torpedoes to China. So that now raises the question of how do you get within 20 miles of an American carrier in order to launch a Shkval torpedoes for a sure kill and with what?
Newsmax.com, March 13, 2001
China Moves Toward War
While the U.S. Navy is concerned over the rapid growth of anti-ship missiles such as the KLUB, another modern Russian weapon purchased by Beijing has sent alarm bells ringing through the halls of the Pentagon. According to defense analysts, the Chinese navy recently bought a small number of Russian-made Shkval rocket torpedoes.
"China has reportedly purchased the Shkval, but there are also reports that its current subs do not have tubes large enough to fire it. This very high speed torpedo would provide the PLA with the technology to build their own version, and this is a looming threat," noted the Jamestown Foundation's Richard Fisher.
Given that China’s own submarines with their 21-inch torpedo tubes are “noisy” according to American submariners and incapable of launching the Shkval, how can China deliver these 533mm torpedoes at close range with any chance of surprise? Again, Russian technology provides the answer.
Russian has sold four of its latest variants of the Kilo submarine to China: Two type 877EKM and two of the newer type 636. All four are capable of firing the Shkval torpedo.
Naval Technology
SSK KILO CLASS (TYPE 877EKM)
ATTACK SUBMARINE, RUSSIA
The Russian Kilo Class submarine first entered service in the early 1980's. It was designed by the Rubin Central Maritime Design Bureau, St Petersburg. Subsequent developments have led to the current production versions, the Type 877EKM and most recently, Type 636. China has two Type 877EKM, Iran has three Type 877EKM and India has nine Type 877EKM.
The Type 877EKM is designed for anti-submarine (ASW) and anti-surface ship (ASuW) warfare. It has six 533mm torpedo tubes and carries 18 heavyweight torpedoes (six in the tubes and twelve on the racks), with an automatic rapid loader. Two targets can be engaged simultaneously.
China has two Type 636 submarines and like the Type 877EKM, the Type 636 are designed for anti-submarine (ASW) and anti-surface ship (ASuW) warfare and also for general reconnaissance and patrol missions.
Naval Technology
SSK KILO CLASS (TYPE 636)
ATTACK SUBMARINE, RUSSIA
The Type 636 submarine is considered to be to be one of the quietest diesel submarines in the world. It is said to be capable of detecting an enemy submarine at a range three to four times greater than it can be detected itself.
The submarine is equipped with a multi-purpose combat and command system, which provides information for effective submarine control and torpedo firing.
Two torpedo tubes are designed for firing remote-controlled torpedoes with a very high accuracy. The computer-controlled torpedo system is provided with a quick-loading device. The first salvo is fired within two minutes and the second within five minutes.
In terms of being quiet, the diesel-electric 636 is comparable to the latest American SSN-688 Los Angeles-class nuclear submarine. Further, given the rapid reload capability of the 636, the two subs could theoretically launch 20 Shkval torpedoes into an American carrier group within 5 minutes at a distance of 20 miles.
If a the possibility of being hit below the water line by a torpedo traveling close to 300 mph isn’t enough to make you sleep poorly, the Shkval is only one half of China’s new one-two punch. The other punch comes above the waterline at more than twice the speed of sound.
Giving the Kitty Hawk a Nasty Sunburn
While the Shkval is deadly below the waterline, above the waterline the new Russian Moskit (SS-N-22 Sunburn) missile is equally deadly.
FAS
SS-N-22 Sunburn
Moskit is the aircraft variant of the naval missile 3M80 (SS-N-22 Sunburn, the designation 3M80 apparently referring to the Mach 3 speed of 1980 weapons) used on "Sovremennyy" destroyers (eight missiles on each.) It reaches Mach 3 at a high altitude and its maximum low-altitude speed is M2.2, triple the speed of the American Harpoon.
The missile is propelled by a dual (rocket-jet) engine and guided by an autopilot during the initial fight stage, with possible correction by an active radar during the final flight stage.
In 1996, China purchased two Russian Sovremenny class destroyers the Vazhniy and Aleksandr Nevskiy (ex-Vdumchivyy). The latest variants of this class, both were in various stages of completing at the time of their purchase. Construction of the two ships was completed by 2000 and both were delivered to China.
FAS, March 20, 2000
Sovremenny
Under a December 1996 agreement China purchased two Russian Sovremenny-class destroyers, each equipped with eight supersonic 3M-80E Moskit SS-N-22 SUNBURN (75/155nm range sea-skimming) and two SA-N-7 launchers. The Sovremenny class was constructed primarily for surface action operations; China will receive 50 Moskit missiles for the destroyers by mid-2000.
Although the ships are equipped with self-defense antisubmarine weapons such as torpedoes and helicopters, the design does not pkace much emphasis on its antisubmarine capability. They are not equipped with the large and expensive towed sonar array and antisubmarine missile system that are commonly found on US and Japanese warships.
As of August 1999 the two Sovremenyy-class destroyers ordered by China had been launched and were expected to enter PLA-Navy service by 2002. The first Sovremenyy-class destroyer completed fitting out at Severnaya and sailed to China in early 2000, and was expected to enter commission at the end of 2000.
The Moskit launch tubes are mounted alongside the bridge of the Russian Sovremney class destroyers such as those recently sold to China.
Now that we’ve identified the one-two punch of the China’s “battle of the first salvo” strategy how would it work.
A Coordinated Attack Above
and Below The Waterline
After being drawn near to China’s coast and into a Shkval/Moskit kill zone, hostilities would suddenly erupt without notice the moment these missiles are fired as part of a coordinated attack of Moskit-armed Sovremenny-class destroyers and Shkval-armed Type 636 Kilo submarines.
The result will be that the command information center (CIC) of the Kitty Hawk will see inbound barrage of Moskit ship-to-ship missiles traveling at more than twice the speed of sound, as well as Shkval torpedoes travel at close to 300 mph.
For the purpose of discussion, let’s assume that that evasive maneuvers and Kitty Hawk’s E-2 Hawkeye S-3 Viking Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)Aircraft handle the threat from the Kilos. What about the inbound Moskit supersonic cruise missiles coming on the deck at an altitude of just 20 meters above sea level?
Hopefully the Moskit missiles can be intercepted and destroyed by the Kitty Hawk’s RIM-7M Sea Sparrow. These radar-guided, air-to-air missiles with high explosive warheads are the Kitty Hawk’s surface-to-air anti-missile defense.
The Sea Sparrow has all-weather, all-altitude operational capabilities and can attack high-performance aircraft and missiles from any direction.
Assuming that a few of the Mokit missiles make it past the Sea Sparrows the “last chance” line of defense for the Kitty Hawk is the Phalanx close-in weapons system with its rapid-fire 20-millimeter gun system.
If the Kitty Hawk’s Phalanx is going to be used to destroy a sub-sonic cruise missile like our Navy’s own Tomahawk cruise missile, the Phalanx system could have as much as 2.5 minutes to acquire and attack the oncoming missile. That means it could fire a hailstorm of over 11,000 20mm rounds at one or more oncoming Tomahawks.
However, in terms of the Mach 3 Moskit missile, the Kitty Hawk’s Phalanx will have 30 seconds at best to destroy the missile. That means the Phalanx could only fire a hailstorm of approximately 2,250, 20mm rounds at one or more oncoming Moskit missiles.
Still the same, it only takes one well-aimed 20mm round to destroy a Moskit missile. But even so, the debris from the missile will likely continue on towards the Kitty Hawk, causing considerable damage upon impact.
What all this boils down to is strategy and the immutable fact that the best defense is a good offense.
Avoiding China’s Shkval/Moskit Kill Zone
The downsizing of our forces during the Clinton years was a tremendous mistake, especially given the fact that Clinton ordered our forces into more parts of the globe than any other peacetime President in American history. Rebuilding takes time but what we can do now is to help Taiwan no matter how much noise we hear from the communist Chinese.
Taiwan is a vibrant democracy and needs to be armed for two reasons. First it must be given the weapons it needs to for an effective first line of defense against communist Chinese aggression. Second, it must be sufficiently armed so that serve as a an effective front line against the ever-growing Chinese threat so that America can avoid the sending its fleet into a Shkval/Moskit kill zone.
America also needs to rebuild its naval forces, with a special emphasis on attack submarines to counter the Kilo/Shkval threat. Also we need to build and deploy large numbers of the new long-range Tactical Tomahawk cruise missiles. The Tactical Tomahawk can be launched and then loiter in an area until it can be designated against a high value target such as China’s new Sovremenyy-class destroyers and their Moskit missiles.
In short, the best way to keep our carriers out of the Chinese kill zone is to have the political will to unhesitatingly destroy every hostile warship in the kill zone before the carriers arrive. We’ve got to reach out and touch them – real hard!
To my knowledge, ROC had always had a seat on the Security Council of the UN because ROC was one of the original founders of the UN. ROC was kicked off the UNSEC when the Communist nations and the so-called "Third World" voted ROC out of the UN for PRC.
Those are good articles. Its been 15 years since my submarine service duty, but I can see the game plan developing. You make an excellent point.
I knew a little about the Chinese first strike plan from my readings, and I have always known that they wanted the ability to "kill" a carrier, but I didnt know they had acquired squall torpedoes.
Their carrier technology is something new also. I didnt know that it had progressed as far as it has, and I doubt a lot of people who make decisions do either, for some reason.
You and I definitely agree on one thing. We need to rebuild our military and especially the Navy, staff it with the same type of dedicated, comitted people we have always managed to find, and get ready to face these guys someday in the future.
The time for enjoying our "Cold war dividend" has been and is over.
Thanks for posting this Quix. I've copied it and will pray for China. We seeded many seeds in China over the years which I believe will eventually (and soon) pay off. We only hear what the media wants us to hear. We never hear of the revivals taking place in the Middle East, China, Africa. Prophetic words give us hope! All is not as it seems, is it, my friend? God is at work in America, China, the Middle East, everywhere. Yes, we will have tough times here, but tough times result in tough people and the Church will prevail in spite of the terror (or because of it!). M