Posted on 02/16/2003 8:58:45 AM PST by dmcg_98
Taiwan on alert against any Chinese invasion
2003-02-14 / Agence France-Presse / Defense Minister Tang Yiau-min (´öÂ`©ú) said yesterday the military had been put on a state of alert for fear China could take advantage of any war in Iraq to launch an invasion of the island.
Tang warned that Beijing's hostility towards Taipei was as strong as ever despite the unprecedented civilian flights between Taipei and Shanghai over the Lunar New Year holiday period.
"They have yet to give up their attempt to take over Taiwan by force. This was clearly stated by (President) Jiang Zemin (¦¿¿A¥Á) in the Chinese Communist Party's 16th Party Congress documents," Tang told a press conference here.
China could decide to attack its arch rival when the world's attention was preoccupied with war in the Gulf.
"The Chinese communists could cash in on such an occasion," said Tang.
"They could sabotage and attack our banking systems, democracy and other social institutions which are superior to those on the mainland."
The defense ministry has also stepped up security and its monitoring of Chinese troop movements and improved its crisis management capability.
While ruling out any possibility of Taiwan's involvement in a U.S.-led war against Iraq, the minister said President Chen Shui-bian's (³¯¤ô«ó) government would provide humanitarian aid to refugees.
Tang also defended Chen's recent announcement in which he ruled out the possibility of direct cross-strait flights even after the resumption of air links with China following a half century hiatus.
Civilian planes would instead be required to fly on a detour for national security reasons even after direct cross-strait transport links are opened up, Chen insisted.
"The Taiwan Strait is a shield (for Taiwan). Wouldn't it be just what the Chinese communists wanted if the shield was removed?" Tang said.
Six Taiwan airlines operated a total of eight chartered flights to and from China for the first time during the Lunar New Year period from January 26 to February 10, but they had to transit Hong Kong or Macau.
Local business and industrial leaders have pushed for direct links between the Taiwan and China, insisting they would help lower shipping costs and facilitate economic ties across the Taiwan Strait.
Taiwanese businesses are estimated to have invested some US$70 billion in China since 1987.
Commenting on China's growing missile threat, Tang said Taiwan had been working to build its missile shield.
"Research and development efforts have got underway to build a missile defense system. Hopefully the target could be arrived at within the next 10 years," he said, without going into details.
Willpower won't float them across the Taiwan strait. To execute a successful amphibious attack involving a few million troops requires skills, equipment, training, and prowress that the PLA does not possess. Their motivation is not in question.
If Taiwan was connected to the mainland, I'd agree that they'd use human sea tactics for as long as it took to get it back. 'Renhai zhanshu' will wear down almost any defender.
Westerners like yourself and most others don't understand this.
I know that 'yang gui bu dong' anything about China. My point is that China doesn't understand anything about ampibious warfare if they think the boat parade is a viable invasion tactic. Operation Overlord and Inchon were incredibly risky, using a fraction of the men and material. A larger invasion into the claws of a waiting enemy would be riskier still.
I do have a passing familiarity with asymetric warfare. It's great for launching suprise attacks against known weak points. It's no substitute for real military capability. In a prolonged struggle, asymetrics are easily overcome. Like the boxcutter trick on the airlines, some tricks only work once, then tactics have to change.
Sometimes, old tricks are the best. China with no access to oil, and no electricity, due to their power plants being leveled, will not be economically viable. The Chinese need to think long and hard how much protection a handful of Russian export weapons will really offer against an enraged United States.
Oh yea, that great Chinese "amphibious/airborn" assault in Korea. Those experienced 75 y/o troops have been itching to give it another go.
Yes, I'm sure China's navy would still exist two weeks after they engaged ours. We'd probably lead with our AC carriers, rather than nest them within the battle groups and anti-sub sweeps. Good thing they'll never arrive because our AC would just be targets for those skilled pilots like Wong Way. The sky's falling.
I was lampooning their ability, not willingness.
That's not saying much. As I recall, the invasion of Normandy did not go so well for the Germans.
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