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Iraq Plans Scorched Earth Strategy And Urban Battle Plan [Drudge Headline]
New York Times ^ | February 15, 2003 | Michael R. Gordon

Posted on 02/15/2003 1:54:27 PM PST by AntiGuv

Iraq's strategy to thwart a United States-led attack calls for slowing American troops' advance toward Baghdad and then confronting them with the prospect of a bloody street battle in the Iraqi capital, according to American intelligence.

To impede American and allied forces, Saddam Hussein's administration has developed plans to blow up dams, destroy bridges and ignite its oil fields, United States Defense Department officials say. They say Iraq may also deny food to Iraqi civilians in the southern parts of the country to try to create a crisis that would saddle advancing allied forces with the responsibility of caring for millions of desperate Iraqi civilians.

Once American and allied forces approach Baghdad, they will encounter two defensive rings of elite Republican Guard forces, the Defense Department officials say. Many of the Republican Guard forces are now dispersed, a move that is intended to help them survive the airstrikes that would open the allied campaign. But as allied ground forces approach Baghdad, the Iraqis are expected to rush to fighting positions that have already been stocked with ammunition and supplies.

Some Republican Guard units are equipped with chemical protective gear, as are Special Republican Guard units and some intelligence and security forces inside Baghdad, according to intelligence reports. This is one of several signs that have led American officials to conclude that Iraq will try to use poison gas or germ weapons against the American and allied forces.

American intelligence agencies have also concluded that it is likely that Iraq will try to strike Israel with Scud missiles, weapons that officials said could be armed with poison gas or germ warheads.

"We have indications that their goal is to delay, impede and deny U.S. forces a clear and quick victory," a defense official said. "The basic strategy can be summed up as disperse, absorb and move to military operations in urban terrain."

As the United States, Britain, Australia and other members of President Bush's "coalition of the willing" prepare for military action to topple Mr. Hussein, American intelligence is working hard to figure out Iraq's intentions. American officials say Iraq's deployments and even statements by Mr. Hussein provide an indication of Baghdad's strategy.

Senior American military officials say they are aware of Iraq's options and are still confident of achieving a decisive victory and of avoiding a prolonged war. Allied ground forces are far better trained and equipped than Iraqi troops, and allied air forces already command the skies.

Iraq's army is about a third of its size during the Persian Gulf war of 1991. There are mounting indications that the morale within Iraq's regular army and even some of the Republican Guard forces is low. Mr. Hussein faces multiple threats: one from the American-led invasion force and another from a restive Shiite population and perhaps some elements of his armed forces that would rather try a coup than see the United States invade and occupy the country.

"At the end of the day, if called on, win we will," said Gen. Tommy R. Franks, the head of the United States Central Command, said in an interview.

Iraq, however, is striving to take a weak hand and make the best of it. Its objective is much different than in the 1991 conflict. During that war, Iraq's goal was to hold on to Kuwait, and it positioned the bulk of its ground forces far from its capital.

But this time, Mr. Hussein has one overriding goal: survival. His aim seems to be to force the Bush administration to seek a political compromise that stops short of toppling his administration by spurring fears of extensive allied casualties, dragging out the war and raising concern around the world over the fate of Iraqi civilians.

"There is no victory option for Iraq," said Gen. Joseph P. Hoar, a retired marine and former chief of the United States Central Command. "The question for Iraq is how to prolong the conflict. For Saddam, the goal is to inflict casualties and allow the Arab news networks to broadcast pictures of civilians dying. He will try to gather international support and try to find a place in history."

An American defense official said: "What lessons have they learned from the last war? They have learned that the possession of weapons of mass destruction is a force multiplier even if they are not used. And they have learned that they should not deploy forces out in the open but disperse them and then move into urban terrain and intermingle with the civilian population."

Slowing the Allied Advance

Drawing on its experience during the gulf war, Iraq is not mounting a major defense of its borders. But it is taking several steps to try to bog down American and allied forces as they try to advance to the Baghdad. Defense Department officials said Iraq had shipped rail cars full of ammunition and demolition equipment to its oil fields. That spurred concerns that Iraq planned to blow them up to hamper the invasion and portray it as an economic and environmental catastrophe.

United States officials said Iraq had also considered plans to destroy dams and flood the Euphrates River, a move that could make it more difficult for forces to cross the river, slowing an offensive. Iraq's 11th Infantry Division has been stationed near the city of Nasiriya, where it can try to put down a Shiite rebellion in the city and guard the crossing points over the river. Iraq has also moved some light infantry and artillery south to the Basra area.

"If hostilities begin, Saddam is likely to employ a `scorched earth' strategy, destroying food, transportation, energy and other infrastructures, attempting to create a humanitarian disaster significant enough to stop a military advance," Vice Adm. Lowell E. Jacoby, the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Congress this week. Admiral Jacoby said the Iraqis would try to blame American forces for the damage.

Iraq is also positioning surface-to-surface missiles. Iraq has placed Al Samoud missiles north and west of Baghdad. American intelligence believes that the missile can travel much farther than the 90-mile range that is allowed by the United Nations. Iraq has also placed Ababil-50 and Ababil-100 missiles and Soviet-designed Frog rockets north of the capital. Defense Department officials say the missiles have been put in place both to strengthen Iraq's defenses in the north and to threaten population centers like Kirkuk and Mosul if they fall into the hands of American or Kurdish forces.

To threaten Kuwait and American forces there, Iraq has also deployed mobile missile systems in the south near Basra. On Tuesday, American and British planes attacked an Ababil-100 mobile missile system there, and on Wednesday they hit another. Those missile deployments, as well as the deployment of an antiship missile launcher near Basra that was attacked last month, represented an escalation in Iraqi war preparations.

American intelligence reports that Mr. Hussein has authorized his commanders to use chemical and perhaps biological weapons. It is difficult for intelligence experts to determine if the munitions being sent to Iraqi forces have chemical or conventional warheads. But American intelligence has noted that protective gear against chemical attack has been given to Special Republican Guard forces as well as intelligence and security personnel charged with defending Baghdad and other cities. It has been given to some Republican Guard units outside Baghdad as well.

United States intelligence agencies have concluded that Iraq will try to use chemical weapons against American forces. The intelligence agencies believe that Iraq has a small covert supply of long-range Scud missiles, which can be equipped with chemical or biological warheads. The intelligence agencies believe it is likely that Iraq will try to fire them at Israel in an effort to portray the war as a battle with an American and Israeli coalition and build support in the Arab world.

Defending Baghdad

It is in Baghdad, however, where Mr. Hussein's administration is expected to make its last stand. A city of 4.5 million, it is a potential urban battleground where Iraq has its best command and control and most loyal forces. The Pentagon has received reports that the city is stockpiling food, apparently preparing for a long siege.

The approaches to Baghdad are protected by three Republican Guard divisions: the Medina to the south, Al Nida to the east and the Hammurabi to the west. The Republican Guard is considered Iraq's most capable and loyal force.

Mr. Hussein has kept regular army forces far away from Baghdad, because he does not trust their loyalty and they are not deemed to be very effective. A brigade from the 3rd Armored Division, however, has been stationed for months at Ramadi, on a western approach to the capital.

To defend Baghdad, the Republican Guard units are establishing two defensive rings: the first is about 50 miles from Baghdad, and the second is on the outskirts of the capital. The use of defensive rings is part of a long-established Iraqi strategy, one that Iraq employed to protect Basra during its war with Iran and that Mr. Hussein talked about in a January speech to top military commanders.

"When the enemy approaches with its infantry and armored units to storm our defensive position, we will absorb the momentum of its offensive through the successive defense lines, destroy him and defeat him," Mr. Hussein said. "This will be the fate of all invaders."

Defense Department officials say that Iraq's defenses consist of fortified fighting positions, including dug-in emplacements for tanks and other heavy equipment. Iraq is not constructing long defensive lines or trenches as it did during the 1991 war. This appears to be part of Iraq's plan to ride out the American and allied airstrikes.

Having experienced 43 days of bombing leading up to the 1991 gulf war and four days of day and night bombing during the 1998 campaign ordered by the Clinton administration, Iraqi forces have considerable experience with American air power. Because of that, Iraq has dispersed its tanks and other heavy weapons. Some military equipment is also positioned near schools and mosques in an effort to shield them from attack.

Iraq's strategy seems to be to absorb the initial round of American airstrikes and then rush its forces to their fighting positions outside Baghdad before allied forces arrive. In terms of air defense, many batteries of antiaircraft artillery have been placed in Baghdad. The Iraqi military is constantly moving its mobile surface-to-air missile systems in an effort to elude American detection and attack.

Fighting in the Streets

A central question, however, is whether Mr. Hussein will pull the Republican Guard divisions inside Baghdad as the Americans and their allies close in. Traditionally, only the Special Republican Guard and Iraq's intelligence and security services are allowed inside the capital, a precaution against coup attempts.

"To fight effectively in the city, he will have to pull important elements of the Republican Guard inside," a defense official said. "But he will be extremely reluctant to do so until the last moment, since they can be as much a threat to him."

Perhaps the main factor is not the number of Iraqi troops nor their specific tactics: it may come down to the Iraqi military's will to fight against a technologically superior and better trained adversary. American intelligence believe that the morale of Iraq's regular army forces is low and on the decline. Even the morale of some Republican Guard units is suffering, officials say.

Much will depend on whether Iraq's generals conclude that Mr. Hussein is going to fall, on how they assess their chances of surviving the fighting, and on what place they might secure in a postwar Iraq.

"We expect some resistance from the Republican Guard," a Defense Department official said. "From the regular army, we expect very little."


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: iraq; scorchedearth; urbanwarfare; warlist
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1 posted on 02/15/2003 1:54:27 PM PST by AntiGuv
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To: AntiGuv
What Iraq has developed as a battle plan is press releases to try to frighten people. If the actual battle goes remotely like this, I will re-register as a Democrat, and move to North Carolina, and vote for Edwards.
2 posted on 02/15/2003 1:58:56 PM PST by Torie
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To: AntiGuv
This is all very interesting, but Pentagon wargaming has been underway for a year.

Welcome to another 72-hour "war."

3 posted on 02/15/2003 2:00:52 PM PST by angkor
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To: Torie
Ha,ha,ha. Just saw on the news in Colorado Springs the peace protesters evidently did not have enough attention at their rally so they moved onto the street stopping traffic, now the cops have donned gas masks and are arresting them. Yaaaaaay. :))))
4 posted on 02/15/2003 2:01:39 PM PST by cubreporter
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To: AntiGuv
So if we attack Iraq, they will attack themselves?
5 posted on 02/15/2003 2:05:08 PM PST by operation clinton cleanup (Brilliant plan!)
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To: operation clinton cleanup
So if we attack Iraq, they will attack themselves?

It's the Judean People's Front Crack Attack Suicide Squad!
6 posted on 02/15/2003 2:08:27 PM PST by Thoro
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To: AntiGuv
Who is going to carry out all this bloody, house-to-house combat, again?

These guys?


I don't think so.

7 posted on 02/15/2003 2:12:37 PM PST by WarSlut
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To: AntiGuv
If you remove the breathless New York Times purple prose, the Iraqui strategy consists of ceding the country and concentrating the combat effectives into a cul-de-sac. Notice, too that Saddam is defending from behind his river line. He has no defense against a US advance northward on the other side of the Tigris-Euphrates until it turns east at any point it chooses. Ideally, the US should advance parallel to the river line and break in north of Baghdad to pin the Iraqui remnants against their own water barrier and flow around Baghdad.

But there is a further difficulty. Saddam's plan relies crucially on the willingness of his troops to fight to the death inside a trap. The US efforts of the last months have been devoted to subversion, subornation and undermining. I would not be surprised if the SOF had cells inside Baghdad. I wouldn't bet on Iraqui army devotion.

Saddam is counting, most of all, on relief from the Peace Movement. The Berkely crowd is his strategic reserve. But it will take time to mobilize. If the US can crack his shell in under a week, it will be all over bar the shouting. The scorched earth threats do pose a problem, but again, it relies upon the willingness of people to destroy their children's future for the sake of a man who, even the meanest village idiot must realize, will soon be in a Chicago overcoat by mid-March. Blowing Kuwaiti wells is one thing. Blowing your own well is another. My own assessment is that if this is the best Saddam can come up with, he should have stuck to politics.
8 posted on 02/15/2003 2:13:45 PM PST by wretchard
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To: wretchard
We will cut through them like a hot knife through butter. If the Iraqis hope to draw us into an urban battle they will lose that as well. With PGMs, we can take out any place that they congregate with a minimal amount of collateral damage. Sayanora Saddam!
9 posted on 02/15/2003 2:22:05 PM PST by Movemout
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To: wretchard
Good analysis, wretchard. I suspect your second paragraph covers quite a bit of ground. These people want to be liberated....even if they don't know how badly they need it.

My only joy will come in seeing the faces of those who are liberated, and the cowering of the Euros and anti-American leftists who slink off into hiding once they are proved to have been on the side of a very evil and sick regime.

10 posted on 02/15/2003 2:25:44 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: operation clinton cleanup
My war plan would be to bomb Iraq until we saw no person there standing up. I would not waste one American life, for it is just not worth it. We are dealing with savages here .
11 posted on 02/15/2003 2:28:11 PM PST by tessalu
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To: AntiGuv
I noticed this comment, destroy bridges.

I wonder if one of the bridges is the one that the Human Shields are protecting????

12 posted on 02/15/2003 2:30:45 PM PST by mware
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To: anniegetyourgun
"I suspect your second paragraph covers quite a bit of ground."

It's about the same distance covered by Barry McCaffrey's 24th Mech during Desert Storm. But it's over conceded ground and the Iraquis are barred from a flank attack by their own river. What keeps us out, keeps them in.
13 posted on 02/15/2003 2:31:07 PM PST by wretchard
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To: AntiGuv
It's reasonable to suspect Saddam of such a treacherous plan, but this article has a pre-emptive strategy:

If enough Americans are brought ahead of time to a mindset in which they doubt claims of suffering by Iraqi civilians, then much of these kind of Iraqi shenanigans can be headed off, if not merely lessened.

Still, I'm very curious to know where these journalists got their info.

IMAGINE --me, a freeper, questioning The Old Gray Lady....!

14 posted on 02/15/2003 2:31:33 PM PST by gaijin
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To: AntiGuv
Saddam plans Kursk defense.
Psssssss, don't tell him it was over fifty years ago.
15 posted on 02/15/2003 2:32:39 PM PST by tet68 (Jeremiah 51:24 ..."..Before your eyes I will repay Babylon for all the wrong they have done in Zion")
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To: AntiGuv
I loved this when I read it: here's the plan in a nutshell....Saddam is going to try and destroy his infratructure that has already been taken over by the allies and the anti Saddam Iraqis, and then he's going to sit in baghdad with the republican guard until they surrender and cut his throat....

What a battle plan

16 posted on 02/15/2003 2:34:57 PM PST by The Wizard (Demonrats are enemies of America)
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To: Torie
very funny line
17 posted on 02/15/2003 2:39:42 PM PST by The Wizard (Demonrats are enemies of America)
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To: gaijin
Much of the 'scorched earth' info is just an update of this Christian Science-Monitor article from December:

How US might counter 'scorched-earth' tactics

The urban warfare aspects have also been reported by numerous sources, especially in the British press. Here's an interesting Reuters article:

Iraq's "ghost" troops ready for urban warfare

The New York Times makes it appear as if it's some big scoop when they've really just collected material from a variety of sources. That being said, I find it helpful as a summary analysis.

Of course, there's every potential the Iraqi military will prove unable to organize or maintain any of these resistance tactics.

18 posted on 02/15/2003 2:40:57 PM PST by AntiGuv (™)
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Attack on Iraq Betting Pool
19 posted on 02/15/2003 2:41:31 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
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To: AntiGuv
What, pray tell, might these geniuses be planning on burning in this Allah-abandoned hell-hole?


20 posted on 02/15/2003 2:51:47 PM PST by geedee
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