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To: dljordan
On the other hand they have all those nifty nuclear secrets they stole from Los Alamos and Livermore.

Which, absent a VERY large number of MIRVs, are pretty much useless.

The W-88 is what you need for a counterforce strategy. However, you need THOUSANDS of the things for a viable counterforce strategy against the United States.

The problem is that China can't AFFORD thousands of the things. And their nuclear strategy is based on countervalue--i.e., city-busting.

And using a W-88 for city-busting is somewhat akin to chartering a 747 to fly yourself from LA to San Francisco. It'll do the job, but there are MUCH cheaper ways of doing it.

113 posted on 05/13/2003 7:32:22 PM PDT by Poohbah (Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women!)
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To: Poohbah; JohnHuang2; Travis McGee; ALOHA RONNIE
The W-88 is what you need for a counterforce strategy. However, you need THOUSANDS of the things for a viable counterforce strategy against the United States.

Only currently. Not, however, after we continue on the continuing disarmament slope reducing our strategic deterrence forces...in all three legs of the triad, to get down to the 1,600 nuclear weapons GWB is hell-bent on. The number of aim-points for a first-striking enemy will be reduced by more than two-thirds. So if they were to casually switch to Russian strategic doctrine from their supposedly current counter-value strategy, then in the not-so-distant future, it will be relatively affordable for them to go counterforce. They can reasonably acquire sufficient W-88 warheads and the delivery capability to implement it within a forseeable time-frame of not decades, but perhaps only 5-7 years.

The only thing offsetting this vulnerability calculus would be deployment of an effectual THICK anti-missile screen by the U.S. This would blunt if not stymie a first strike, and permit the US to respond at its own choosing. Something we don't seem to be doing, despite the clear evidence it is a good idea.

115 posted on 05/14/2003 9:19:08 AM PDT by Paul Ross (From the State Looking Forward to Global Warming! Let's Drown France!)
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