Washington/Batimore Heavy Snow Forecast...

National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington ^ | February 14, 2003

[John H K]

Before people have a cow, ALL National Weather Service products are in all caps, a relic of when they had ancient equipment that literally didn't have lower case. Also they use a ton of abbreviations that again are a relic of 300 baud data transmission and no storage space.

Also, this is an "Area Forecast Discussion" which is readable by the public, but really isn't intended for the public, hence the technical terminology.

In case you're wondering, computer models really don't output a snow amount, they output an amount of liquid water equivalent.

It's very tricky to convert that back into a snow depth, since it's very sensitive to temperature, etc. The MINIMUM baseline for a wet snow is about 10 to 1...10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain. It's often 15 to 1 to 20 to 1.

Thus the ETA's 2.00" for DC is actually something like 20 to 40 inches of snow.

ETA can sometimes inflate precip amounts, though.

[Miss Marple]

Is there a war protest planned for this weekend in DC? If so, I think they won't have many attendees. HA!

[RoseofTexas]

How relieable is this forcast? Are they usually on the money? What about NY, what is the forcast there for tomorrow??

[John H K]

It's still possible for even a 2 day forecast in terms of snow to be off by a lot...there's very little chance that there's no snow in DC, or a big rainstorm.

It's extremely hard to tell what happens from Philadelphia Northward.

It's possible for NYC to have a substantial snow, but there are computer models with basically no snow in NYC from either storm, still.

[ErnBatavia]

a relic of when they had ancient equipment that literally didn't have lower case. Also they use a ton of abbreviations that again are a relic of 300 baud data transmission and no storage space.

I met a quite old guy the other day with a heavy European accent. While shooting the breeze, he said he had no computer, but had "worked on them 50 years ago when they were the size of a large room"....

It was cute when he said, "They only had 40K, but...OHHHHHH!!!! The math and everything they could squeeze out of that 40K!!"

[RoughDobermann]

Couldn't talk you into shipping some of that moisture to Colorado, could we?

[dirtboy]

Couldn't talk you into shipping some of that moisture to Colorado, could we?

Har! I moved back to Pennsylvania this year and brought my new wife, the mountain woman, back with me. I warned her about the difference between East Coast cold and Colorado cold. So of course we get the worst winter since 1994. She's a believer now.

[upchuck]

weather.com for "approximately" NYC:

http://www.weather.com/weather/local/07661

[dirtboy]

I saw this sucker off the California coast a few days ago and figured it was gonna whump us. Any time a storm that strong goes in that far south on the coast, it usually digs into the souther jet pretty good and pulls together the ingredients for a big storm as it moves across the country. I hope I'm wrong...

[RoughDobermann]

You, sir, are a sadist!! :-) Dry as a friggin bone here. We've had something like 12 inches in the Denver metro so far this winter. As you know, should be around 35 inches by now.... Gonna be a long summer and fire season if we don't get some more soon.

[this_ol_patriot]

We got ripped (York Pa) I'm on vacation and was ready for a big 3 day snow, sit back and relax in front of the fireplace, put on some classical, open the curtains on the big bay window and enjoy, now it looks the snow here won't be enough to cover the old dirty snow from before. Bah, we'll probably get a blizzard when I go back to work.

[dirtboy]

You, sir, are a sadist!! :-) Dry as a friggin bone here. We've had something like 12 inches in the Denver metro so far this winter. As you know, should be around 35 inches by now.... Gonna be a long summer and fire season if we don't get some more soon.

My wife and I are praying for you guys - we lived in the mountains west of Denver and were always worried about a fire up there. Colorado hasn't had a four-year drought before, but you've got one now. Hope for some late-season snow and some good rains in May...

[Dog]

I am in Jersey......and it looks like 10 inches + from the storm Sunday..

4-6 inches tonight.

[dirtboy]

It's very tricky to convert that back into a snow depth, since it's very sensitive to temperature, etc. The MINIMUM baseline for a wet snow is about 10 to 1...10 inches of snow to 1 inch of rain. It's often 15 to 1 to 20 to 1.

There's enough cold air in place to make sure this is an all-snow event. I remember the big dump in 1996 that they are talking about, it put down 30 inches in the Philly area - and the temps were down in the teens. This air mass isn't much warmer, and since it's February instead of early January, there will be more energy to the south for this storm to tap into.

[dirtboy]

Bah, we'll probably get a blizzard when I go back to work.

Yeppurs. I'm taking work home with me this weekend, because I don't expect to make it into work on Monday from what the forecast is saying.

[tomkat]

dammit !

was hoping to meet the FReepers in NYC for cocktails after the demo tomorrow ...

whaaaaaaaa !

[dakine]

Damn, I worked on 300 Baud papertape many moons ago, could read it by sight....Next, they going to bring back Hollerith code?

[Dog]

This could be as a bad as the 96 storm???

[Chancellor Palpatine]

Milk, bread, booze, videos. The run has no doubt started.

[dakine]

Stores are packed....People around here are nuts...