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The last thing al-Qaida wants is a happy arab population friendly to the US. I don't think they'd like US bases in Iraq any better than the ones in Saudi Arabia.

al-Qaida is certainly hoping that an invasion of Iraq will trigger a worldwide Islamic jihad against the West.

Of course, they hoped and asked for that as we were preparing to attack Afghanistan, and it didn't materialize.

It won't this time, either, although they are working hard to trigger it, probably by staging some spectacular terrorism incidents.

Good point. If the new Iraqi government is broadly satisfactory to its citizens, it's game over for Al Queda. They can't like the way Iran's going, with broad public discontent over the theocracy. The only chance Al Queda would have of true success is a Saddam-style dictatorship similar in character to the Taliban.

Saddam has similar ambitions to Al Queda - a pan-arab government combining the region. It surprises me a bit that Al Queda wouldn't simply ally with Saddam, who would change his religion in a heartbeat to retain power (as we have seen). I'm sure he'd be willing to let them enforce religious law (apparently their obsession) if he kept overall power. The trade could work well for both, although it would keep a miserable, bankrupt people miserable and bankrupt.

If bin Laden(*) allied with Saddam, he could make a much more definite statement than he made. I think his statement is likely to provide tepid support at best, because he acknowledges that support for his side of the war is support for an evil person, with is far from inspiring in my view.

Maybe he should have accepted Saddam's conversion to Islam, at least as a tactical point?

The individuals whose decisions would trigger a worldwide jihad against the US only want to support winners. That was clear after what happened in Afgahaistan. Once they found out bin Laden was going to lose, all his support vanished. Even if Al Queda was successful in showy, dramatic attacks, that doesn't make him a winner on the ground in Iraq, and I'm sure they are very much aware of this. So I don't think even a successful attack on the US would help him much in supporting Saddam.

I have to be guardedly optimistic about this considering that they haven't pulled off any dramatic operations on American soil since 9/11. This makes me think they have a much smaller base of truly competent people than originally thought.

D

(*) Or his successors. I recognize that he is probably dead.