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Fascinating bit of news there about the potential ice ball.

I would think that if the purported ice ball became detached before the re-entry firing, it would not have hit the wing with any significant force (since the orbiter and the ice ball were in essentially the same orbit.

If the ice ball was dislodged during the re-entry firing (with the orbiter inverted and flying backwards), then it could have hit the orbiter with some significant velocity, but would probably have been flung away from the orbiter during the post-firing re-entry maneuvering.

If the ice ball came off during the re-entry maneuvering (when the aero heating is the most severe) then the ice ball and the orbiter should be on the same flight path until the orbiter rolls or yaws and the ice ball doesn't, assuming that the drag difference of both bodies is not significant. I also think that the aero heating would vaporize the ice ball fairly quickly.

I guess my conclusion, after all this thinking out loud, is that if there was an ice ball that did this damage, then it happened early in the re-entry before there was significant aero heating but the orbiter was maneuvering (rolling and pitching).

It depends, of ocurse, on the presence of an ice ball. If it hit the orbiter, then there is likely no remains of it.

I guess they are looking at the radar returns after engine firing for re-entry and before aero heating started.