[ewing]

I agree, the Challenger was caused by ice as well..I think it may have had a role here

[snopercod]

Challenger was caused by ice as well...

Pardon me, but the loss of the Challenger was caused by SRB O-Ring blowby due to loss of resiliance in the O-Ring material because of the 25 degree F cold temperatures, not "ice".

[Rockitz]

Another iceman here. I stated so on Monday in several threads. We'll see? I don't think the foam could damage the wing as easily as ice. It's the difference between a ping-pong ball and a golf ball from a density and force of impact perspective. The problem with ice is political, on the other hand, becasue it's something the launch director has to make a go/no go decision on. The foam is an "oh $h!t" thing that doesn't require nearly as much subjectivity when determining risk. We will probably do some pretty simple aerodynamics analyses to see which is more plausible.