While it is preliminary, perhaps the photographer has cause and effect reversed. I.e., something didn't hit the shuttle, but instead flew off. If the camera's chroma are in fact accurate, then NASA might be able to tell the chemical composition of the debris...and hence what part of the shuttle hull might have broken loose.
The association of the timing with the early failures is strongly suggestive that this is NOT a simple artifact of sloppy camera technique.
And it is also unlikely that it would be a hoax from a professional astronomer...who went out of his way to stay anonymous...and is not 'marketing' the photo.