[bonesmccoy]

Yes, I am aware of the fact that drag plays a big role here.

However, I do not have differential equations to relate drag at various altitudes, the prevailing winds on the morning in question, and the ground terrain.

So, the best I can surmise is the basic college ballistics equation and use that as the initial point of reference.

We can at least see where the impact point could have been and how close it is to a populated area.

[XBob]

I think I initally came up with a very deserted area, the 4 corners of ariz, nm, colorado, and utah.

[XBob]

I think I initally came up with a very deserted area, the 4 corners of ariz, nm, colorado, and utah to search for it.

[John Jamieson]

I've got just the first calculations done, but it looks as if the velocity of a tile would decrease really fast. About 830 ft/sec in the first second. Will finish it tomorrow afternoon.

John

[John Jamieson]

Couldn't sleep, so I finished it.

SWAGS: (excel spreadsheet available, very large!)

Starting at 230,000 feet and going 19,000 ft/sec a lost tile (6x6x3" 9 pounds/cuft density), would hit the ground in 1364 seconds, 112.7 miles downrange, going 37.5 mph straight down.

A similar tile of the 22 pound/cuft type, would hit in 899 seconds, 165.7 miles downrange, going 58.8mph straight down.

If we can estimate the size and weight of a landing gear door, I'll try it too.

Did I pass? John

[John Jamieson]

I also did 3" solid cubes of Aluminum and Steel. The AL hits 270 miles down range at 145mph and the Steel 318 miles down range at 245mph. All the debris should be within 100 to 300 miles of where it left the vehicle, and all of it should have come straight down.

John