Thanks for posting these excellent links. I've been stepping through the video and disagree with your conclusion that it was a single piece that appears split because of an obstruction. Here's what I see (frames identified by the second in the mpg):
0:00-0:04 - object appears, flies up the tank, hits it
0:05-0:06 - object bounces off and either splits in two or dislodges another object. Call the lower one A and upper one B.
0:07-0:08 - "A" passes between the wing and tank. "B" reaches the front edge of the wing
0:09:0:10 - "A" emerges from underneath the wing, apparently broken up into two pieces. "B" probably impacts the wing at this point.
0:11-0:14 - "B" emerges as a cloud underneath the wing and spreads out all the way to outside the solid rocket.
0:15-0:16 - two fairly solid pieces of "B" pass in front of the SRB and are illuminated by the fire it.
http://www-pao.ksc.nasa.gov/kscpao/images/medium/03pd0243-m.jpg
Your analysis matches NASA's. It appears they believe there is more than one object falling into the orbiter.
Question for NASA: What color is that plume?