[exnavy]

That's all well and good reasoning. One thing to note though, last night I watched a NASA spokesman speak to the occurance of a significant "heating event" above the left wing and up into the wall or side of the orbiter above the wing. This implies the tile loss and underside heat was nearer the inboard or base of the wing.

[OldFriend]

There may not have been sensors where the event originated.

[bonesmccoy]

I heard some of that press conference, but have not been able to locate the exact statement. Please quote exactly what the shuttle program manager noted or point to a transcript so that I can comment most accurately.

Thanks.

[Smokin' Joe]

I may be off base here, others are more knowledgeable. If the damage caused a breach in the wing undersurface or the landing gear bay, how open is the space inside the wing?

Presumably the structural elements are not solid (to conserve weight) and the plume of superheated material would blow into the hollow wing space, with vortices I don't pretend to be able to predict or model. (I'm only a rock scientist--no ET)

This might account for the pattern of temperature increases, plume circulation changing with the geometry of the eroding breach. Eventually, with drag or structural failure causing loss of attitude control and the orbiter.