>> Even if they had done an EVA to evaluate the wing damage, there is no way they could have repaired the damage or rescued the crew (unless the next flight was rushed to the pad and risked to save the crew)<<
And, just like a decision to abort to Spain would not have been obviously correct, I bet that if they did an EVA the results would have been equivocal, not enough to risk the Atlantis crew.
I suspect the damage (if any were visible) was of a kind previously survived. There was an unexpected synergy between the location (near or on the gear door) and the damage which was not revealed until stress tested.
If there were a huge tile defect, so big that the reentry clearly had to be scrubbed, I think we would have seen burn-through and wing loss earlier.
What we saw instead was an initially subtle aerodynamic change which worsened throughout the terminal sequence in association with shedding of burning material (presumably tiles). When the stabilization program went beyond previously tested limits, the shuttle ceased to be aerodynamic and was pulverized in a second by the force of air at 12.5K mph.
I think vehicle loss was unexpected by the passengers. I don't know anything about it, but I suspect that wing loss or tail loss as some have speculated would have produced severe, severe buffeting and been reported to JSC by the crew.
I bet the shuttle turned or flipped in a second, and a second later it was gone.
Thanks, bones, for your fantastic work on this thread. I predicted on Saturday that we would have a very high quality failure analysis thread, but this has surpassed my expectations.
Jim,
Thank you for your highly complimentary statement.
Free Republic is a manifestation of our desire as Americans to learn, to build, and to improve ourselves and our nation. The team running this site has much to be protect and much to defend. They are to be congratulated.
Regarding the issue of an emergency EVA to evaluate the impact damage, the NASA shuttle program team and the JSC Mission Directors would have probably considered it. However, if they were told that the impact damage is likely minimal (and especially if the contractor supports the evaluation), the team is unlikely to consider an emergency EVA. Such EVAs were only contingent on specific conditions and I doubt that TPS evaluation is a condition.
In the event of any tile defect, the contractor should have the capability to do computer simulation of the reentry trajectory based upon the known condition of the TPS.
The impact of the ice chunk seen on the KSC PAO video archive is rather large. To be honest with you, within hours of the accident, Freepers had posted the image of the impact and began analysis. Initially, I doubted that the impact was sufficient to cause the accident. However, when the higher resolution KSC Ice Team film was produced, I was disappointed to find that the ice chunk was substantial in size.
The reason you did not see separation of the port wing earlier in flight was that the wing does not become a useful aerodynamic surface until the last few minutes of flight. The reality is that the wing's TPS appears to have been damaged by the impact (because I think the plume is composed of some silica dust from the TPS).
In order to evaluate the structural stability of the port wing, you would have to plot the structural stability of the wing against the loss of integrity due to heating and aerodynamic forces.
Essentially OV-102 was an Eagle flying with a broken left wing. Although the TPS damage did not terminate flight during launch or orbit, the damage was significant enough to compromise thermal control during reentry.
The shedding of material over California and Arizona is significant. The home video taken by the boys in Arizona is telling. Some orbiter structure was lost over Arizona but it is only conjecture to guess what it was. I'm sure that JSC knows. They should have enough telemetry to identify if wing spars, gear, or elements of the vehicle were being shed over Arizona. The transcript of the ATG transmissions should be telling.
With respect to the aerodynamic stability of the orbiter, you are probably correct.
Like in the accident during STS-51-L, the orbiter breaks up into many pieces as aerodynamic forces shear the vehicle. The vehicle's structures shreds in the force of the atmosphere. The major elements of the vehicle are torn apart (a wing, the crew module, the tail, an engine, thruster rockets, etc. separate). These elements at 200,000 feet are seen on the WFAA films as separate objects.
I agree that the vehicle disintegrated so fast that the crew never knew what hit them. They died instantly.
Rapid cabin decompression at 200,000 feet creates instant loss of consciousness. Only if oxygen was flowing would you see any potential for the human to regain consciousness at lower altitude. Because the crew module debris appears to be located in widely separated areas, I am fairly certain that the crew module did not emerge intact from the vehicle (as in 51-L). However, I am only stating this based upon location reports and photos in the popular news media.
Thankfully this crew was instantly incompacitated and never aware of the accident.
The transmission of "Roger...uh..." may reflect one of several possibilities:
1. Loss of crew module pressurization
2. Loss of comm secondary to loss of electrical power or loss of antenna/comm lines in the vehicle.
I recall that NASA stated that there was an additional 30 seconds of data that they may be able to retrieve. That data may help quantify the structural elements that were intact or not at a particular second in time.
Sadly, all this rationalization can do is assist in the investigation. It will not return the crew to Earth.
Seventeen years after OV-099's demise, I still think sometimes that I will see the crew of 51-L.
But, alas, they will remain forever young while we age.
God speed the crew of 51-L and 107!
See my post:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/833908/posts?page=26#26
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/833908/posts?page=52#52
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/833911/posts?page=6#6I bet the shuttle turned or flipped in a second, and a second later it was gone.
i agree - see also 137