Can They Strike Back?

TIME ^ | January 26, 2003 | Romesh Ratnesar

[Dec31,1999]

Europe is taking the other tack--crossing their fingers, sitting back, and doing nothing.

My guess is that the strategy of France and Germany is to wait out the tough stuff, let us take the hits, and then march in to victory after we've done most or all of the dirty work, our economy is in shambles and the population is demoralized. Then they can reduce Israel to a mere part of the new Greater Pallestine and enjoy control of the oil fields.

[Dan from Michigan]

Typical Slime Magazine.

To quote Joe Hollenbeck(Bruce Willis) in the Last Boy Scout - "We're dealin' with a couple of geniuses, here."

Of course they can stike back. They already struck once. If we hit them, they can hit us. If we don't hit them, they can hit us.

Also, if I remember back from 91, the threat wasn't destroying Saddam in Baghdad if they used bio or chem. It was being NUKED.

[Nogbad]

Ping

[leftiesareloonie]

Let's play Saddam.

Suppose you were Saddam --- commander in chief of the either soon to be eviscerated or the soon to be turn coat Iraqi army. What would you do? Assume surrender is not an option. Assume going into exile is not an option.

You KNOW the GW is serious. It's personal. It's strategic. It cannot be avoided, it can only be delayed, and only a little, at that. You know that however many casualties you cost the Americans -- which if Gulg War I was any indication won't be lot -- Bush will be undeterred. This is for keeps, for all the marbles.

What do you do, besides shit a brick?

This is what I would do.

(a) Try to reach a rapproachment with the Iranians. Foreswear any designs on Iranian territory hence forth, pledge cooperation in all fields -- from oil to nukes.

Iran just might bite. The mullahs must know their own days are numbered. Their people are restive and they are about to have 100k US troops parked on their doorsteps for a good long tme. What would they give to avoid that? Teaming up with a ready to bargin Saddam (in secret, of course) is the least they can do.

What does Saddam get. A potentially reinforcing ally. A clandestine source of supplies and possibly troops. A place from which scuds can be fired at the approaching Allied onslaught.

(b) Attack first and hard, but in a low profile sort of way.

By this I mean that I would not repeat the mistake of Iraq in Gulf War I. The American's army was for awhile a sitting duck, before the build up of forces in Saudi Arabia was complete. Iraq could have moved early, but feared provoking an attack that thought could either be deterred or ridden out.

They were wrong. The attack was not going to be deterred and they underestimated our ferocity.

I wouldn't do that again., if I can. But it's delicate. Iraq can't strike NOW. That would play into Bush's hands. Bring the whole world to our side. Plus troops on the move, in the open desert, with no air cover are sitting ducks, as Saddam knows by now.

What to do? You can't move masses of troops. But once Bush gives his final ultimatum, especially if the coalition of the willing consists just of us, the Brits and a few pygmy powers, if I were Saddam I would immediately launch every scud I have on the American Bases in Kuwait, armed with every poison I could muster. If I could get the Iranians to do the same, I would -- but that is dicier, since they are more likely to want to help in ways that show no footprints.

Simultaneously, I would unleash whatever I or my perhaps newfound partners in Al Quaeda can on the US mainland. If we have a dirty nuke or anthrax or whatever, use it now, before the first US shot is fired. It would be our own mini-version of "shock and awe." It would enabel me to take out the maximum number fo troop, since once the US moves, there will be no safe haven anywehre in Iraq for me or my ragtag army. I would also scare the bejesus out of the American populace, by killing tens of thousands if I could. Undermine their confidence that papa Bush is able to protect them, even a year and a half after 9/11.

It would be my own version of "shock and awe." Plus the attack on the US mainland would not necessarily even have my fingerprints on it. I could argue that the US ultimatum has already inflamed muslins everywhere. And that things are only going to get worse for the US.

(c) Of course, the US is still going to come, perhaps with more ferocity than they would otherwise have mustered. But I don't give them what they are looking for -- tank-to-tank battles and the like. I would disperse my forces, let the US advance basically unimpeded toward the cities. Even let them enter the cities w/out a real fight -- except perhaps I might throw an army of conscripts at them for good measure.

But then I would come at them from every manhole cover, every hovel and hamlet, every nook and cranny of every major city.

(d) I would probably torch my oil wells, and if I could slip in to Kuwait, Kuwaiti oil wells from the first moment of the war, perhaps before a shot is even fired. I would of course blame it on American sabatoge.

All this happens as soon as Bush lays down an ultimatum, before one cruise missle is fired.

What do you think about my plans?

How would you play it, if you had Saddam's weak hand?

[Bob Mc]

"What do you think about my plans?"

Very ingenious, for someone who is suicidal. But I don't think he has any real support from Iraqi people who want to die with him (maybe a handful of suicidal extremists). I think most of his forces will be anxious for their first chance to surrender.

[aristeides]

It's significant that this stuff is appearing in Time magazine now.

[The Great Satan]

All this is perfectly obvious. It is only the enormous capacity for wilful evasion and self-deception on the part of all here -- left, right, apolitical -- that has delayed recognition of these facts, and still blocks mental integration of the totality of the 9-11 situation. Let's see: Saddam has biological "weapons of mass destruction." Check. A single "vial, canister or crate" of his weapons smuggled into the US could cause "a day of horror like none we have ever known." Check. And we are weeks away from attacking Iraq? I don't think so. We're bluffing.

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the heads up!

[leftiesareloonie]

All this is perfectly obvious. It is only the enormous capacity for wilful evasion and self-deception on the part of all here -- left, right, apolitical -- that has delayed recognition of these facts, and still blocks mental integration of the totality of the 9-11 situation. Let's see: Saddam has biological "weapons of mass destruction." Check. A single "vial, canister or crate" of his weapons smuggled into the US could cause "a day of horror like none we have ever known." Check. And we are weeks away from attacking Iraq? I don't think so. We're bluffing.

I don't think we're bluffing. But I do think we're wrongly assuming that Saddam will only respond. Once the "ultimatum" is given, I predict all hell breaks loose. See my earlier post.

Bush and Cheney think that all hell will break loose in any case, eventually. That's the lesson of 9-11, as they see it. We face an undeterrable, uncontainable enemy, who will strike at the time of their choosing, if we let them. We cannot sit and wait. We must act pre-emptively and preventively.

It's a frightening strategic doctrine for a frightening world. They really do fear that on their watch 10's of thousands or maybe even 100's of thousands and maybe even millions of Americans will die in a horrendous terrorist act. There is no doubt that IF Al-Quaeda had the means and the opportunity, they would go for it without hesitation. They want to END America's domination of the world. Period.

So there will be war. It will be hell. Many people will die, both in Iraq and, perhaps, in the US.

[Travis McGee]

Whether or not an Iraqi BWMD could kill 10-100K, it could certainly wreck our economy.

The anthrax warning attack in 10-2001 consisted of a total of 3 grams.

Imagine an attack on our transportation and postal system, with 100s of leaky one kilo packages being mailed via USPS, UPS and FedEx on the same day.

Imagine dozens of one kilo glass jars of spores being thrown onto subway tracks in our ten biggest cities.

Imagine kilos of anthrax being trailed out of leaky trouser pockets by jihadists in our ten largest airports.

Tell me how we prevent that, if Saddam has already smuggled a few 100 kilos of anthrax into the USA?

And how hard is it to smuggle in 100 kilos of white powder? Tons of cocaine come in every month.

[Travis McGee]

I agree with you.

[FreedomPoster]

>>getting the exact coordinates of the Kaaba...

I've got a little math for you:

+

=

[The Great Satan]

I don't think we're bluffing.

We'll soon see, won't we?

[Myrddin]

How many longshoremen went on strike last summer? How many ships were floating in the Pacific with a full load? The economy teeters on a question that simple. The simple act of killing all those longshoremen would cause devastatng effects on the economy. We still have product shortages on the shelf in January 2003.