The Space Shuttle Must Be Stopped

A spacecraft is a metaphor of national inspiration: majestic, technologically advanced, produced at dear cost and entrusted with precious cargo, rising above the constraints of the earth. The spacecraft carries our secret hope that there is something better out there—a world where we may someday go and leave the sorrows of the past behind. The spacecraft rises toward the heavens exactly as, in our finest moments as a nation, our hearts have risen toward justice and principle. And when, for no clear reason, the vessel crumbles, as it did in 1986 with Challenger and last week with Columbia, we falsely think the promise of America goes with it.

Unfortunately, the core problem that lay at the heart of the Challenger tragedy applies to the Columbia tragedy as well. That core problem is the space shuttle itself. For 20 years, the American space program has been wedded to a space-shuttle system that is too expensive, too risky, too big for most of the ways it is used, with budgets that suck up funds that could be invested in a modern system that would make space flight cheaper and safer. The space shuttle is impressive in technical terms, but in financial terms and safety terms no project has done more harm to space exploration. With hundreds of launches to date, the American and Russian manned space programs have suffered just three fatal losses in flight—and two were space-shuttle calamities. This simply must be the end of the program.

Will the much more expensive effort to build a manned International Space Station end too? In cost and justification, it's as dubious as the shuttle. The two programs are each other's mirror images. The space station was conceived mainly to give the shuttle a destination, and the shuttle has been kept flying mainly to keep the space station serviced. Three crew members—Expedition Six, in NASA argot—remain aloft on the space station. Probably a Russian rocket will need to go up to bring them home. The wisdom of replacing them seems dubious at best. This second shuttle loss means NASA must be completely restructured—if not abolished and replaced with a new agency with a new mission.

Why did NASA stick with the space shuttle so long? Though the space shuttle is viewed as futuristic, its design is three decades old. The shuttle's main engines, first tested in the late 1970s, use hundreds more moving parts than do new rocket-motor designs. The fragile heat-dissipating tiles were designed before breakthroughs in materials science. Until recently, the flight-deck computers on the space shuttle used old 8086 chips from the early 1980s, the sort of pre-Pentium electronics no self-respecting teenager would dream of using for a video game.

Most important, the space shuttle was designed under the highly unrealistic assumption that the fleet would fly to space once a week and that each shuttle would need to be big enough to carry 50,000 lbs. of payload. In actual use, the shuttle fleet has averaged five flights a year; this year flights were to be cut back to four. The maximum payload is almost never carried. Yet to accommodate the highly unrealistic initial goals, engineers made the shuttle huge and expensive. The Soviet space program also built a shuttle, called Buran, with almost exactly the same dimensions and capacities as its American counterpart. Buran flew to orbit once and was canceled, as it was ridiculously expensive and impractical.

Capitalism, of course, is supposed to weed out such inefficiencies. But in the American system, the shuttle's expense made the program politically attractive. Originally projected to cost $5 million per flight in today's dollars, each shuttle launch instead runs to around $500 million. Aerospace contractors love the fact that the shuttle launches cost so much.

In two decades of use, shuttles have experienced an array of problems—engine malfunctions, damage to the heat-shielding tiles—that have nearly produced other disasters. Seeing this, some analysts proposed that the shuttle be phased out, that cargo launches be carried aboard by far cheaper, unmanned, throwaway rockets and that NASA build a small "space plane" solely for people, to be used on those occasions when men and women are truly needed in space.

Throwaway rockets can fail too. Last month a French-built Ariane exploded on lift-off. No one cared, except the insurance companies that covered the payload, because there was no crew aboard. NASA's insistence on sending a crew on every shuttle flight means risking precious human life for mindless tasks that automated devices can easily carry out. Did Israeli astronaut Ilan Ramon really have to be there to push a couple of buttons on the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment, the payload package he died to accompany to space?

Switching to unmanned rockets for payload launching and a small space plane for those rare times humans are really needed would cut costs, which is why aerospace contractors have lobbied against such reform. Boeing and Lockheed Martin split roughly half the shuttle business through an Orwellian-named consortium called the United Space Alliance. It's a source of significant profit for both companies; United Space Alliance employs 6,400 contractor personnel for shuttle launches alone. Many other aerospace contractors also benefit from the space-shuttle program.

Any new space system that reduced costs would be, to the contractors, killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Just a few weeks ago, NASA canceled a program called the Space Launch Initiative, whose goal was to design a much cheaper and more reliable replacement for the shuttle. Along with the cancellation, NASA announced that the shuttle fleet would remain in operation until 2020, meaning that Columbia was supposed to continue flying into outer space even when its airframe was more than 40 years old! True, B-52s have flown as long. But they don't endure three times the force of gravity on takeoff and 2000*none on re-entry.

A rational person might have laughed out loud at the thought that although school buses are replaced every decade, a spaceship was expected to remain in service for 40 years. Yet the "primes," as NASA's big contractors are known, were overjoyed when the Space Launch Initiative was canceled because it promised them lavish shuttle payments indefinitely. Of course, the contractors also worked hard to make the shuttle safe. But keeping prices up was a higher priority than having a sensible launch system.

Will NASA whitewash problems as it did after Challenger? The haunting fact of Challenger was that engineers who knew about the booster-joint problem begged NASA not to launch that day and were ignored. Later the Rogers Commission, ordered to get to the bottom of things, essentially recommended that nothing change. No NASA manager was fired; no safety systems were added to the solid rocket boosters whose explosion destroyed Challenger; no escape-capsule system was added to get astronauts out in a calamity, which might have helped Columbia. In return for failure, the shuttle program got a big budget increase. Post-Challenger "reforms" were left up to the very old-boy network that had created the problem in the first place and that benefited from continuing high costs.

Concerned foremost with budget politics, Congress too did its best to whitewash. Large manned-space-flight centers that depend on the shuttle are in Texas, Ohio, Florida and Alabama. Congressional delegations from these states fought frantically against a shuttle replacement. The result was years of generous funding for constituents—and now another tragedy.

The tough questions that have gone unasked about the space shuttle have also gone unasked about the space station, which generates billions in budget allocations for California, Texas, Ohio, Florida and other states. Started in 1984 and originally slated to cost $14 billion in today's dollars, the space station has already cost at least $35 billion—not counting billions more for launch costs—and won't be finished until 2008. The bottled water alone that crews use aboard the space station costs taxpayers almost half a million dollars a day. (No, that is not a misprint.) There are no scientific experiments aboard the space station that could not be done far more cheaply on unmanned probes. The only space-station research that does require crew is "life science," or studying the human body's response to space. Space life science is useful but means astronauts are on the station mainly to take one another's pulse, a pretty marginal goal for such an astronomical price.

What is next for America in space? An outsider commission is needed to investigate the Columbia accident—and must report to the President, not Congress, since Congress has shown itself unable to think about anything but pork barrel when it comes to space programs.

For 20 years, the cart has been before the horse in U.S. space policy. NASA has been attempting complex missions involving many astronauts without first developing an affordable and dependable means to orbit. The emphasis now must be on designing an all-new system that is lower priced and reliable. And if human space flight stops for a decade while that happens, so be it. Once there is a cheaper and safer way to get people and cargo into orbit, talk of grand goals might become reality. New, less-expensive throwaway rockets would allow NASA to launch more space probes—the one part of the program that is constantly cost-effective. An affordable means to orbit might make possible a return to the moon for establishment of a research base and make possible the long-dreamed-of day when men and women set foot on Mars. But no grand goal is possible while NASA relies on the super-costly, dangerous shuttle.

In 1986 the last words transmitted from Challenger were in the valiant vow: "We are go at throttle up!" This meant the crew was about to apply maximum thrust, which turned out to be a fatal act. In the coming days, we will learn what the last words from Columbia were. Perhaps they too will reflect the valor and optimism shown by astronauts of all nations. It is time NASA and the congressional committees that supervise the agency demonstrated a tiny percentage of the bravery shown by the men and women who fly to space—by canceling the money-driven shuttle program and replacing it with something that makes sense.

Gregg Easterbrook is a senior editor of the New Republic and a visiting fellow of the Brookings Institution. Five years before Challenger, he wrote in the Washington Monthly that the shuttles' solid rocket boosters were not safe.

I don't usually waste my time at Time, but I saw this on Drudge (thats my story and I'm sticking with it). As a six year veteran of the space shuttle program (in the early days), I'd like to make a few comments. 1) Manned spaceflight is dangerous, and has been since day one. It will NEVER be a ride to the supermarket for groceries. 2) That large corporate interests are involved in operating the program goes without saying. The job can't be done without lots of money. The government has to be extraordinarily cautious in how it incentivises the contractors to avoid causing fatal problems (e.g. schedule bonuses which don't account for safe practices). 3) Robots cannot do every job. Humans must go sometimes, and as the author has noted, expendibles sometimes fail, too. 4) Shuttle technology is indeed old. In some cases, such as the flight control computers (prior to the most recent upgrade) was pathetic by today's standards. We are like the city government that won't pay for new firetrucks. "Just keep the old ones running, they are good enough." is the approach. 5) The socialists at Time just can't seem to say the word that is really needed here - PRIVATIZE! We can have all the commissions we can stand, but bureaucracies cannot and will not change. If the US wants a small manned spaceplane, and I think that is a useful goal, from a national policy standpoint, how about we use capitalism to our advantage?

This simply must be the end of the program.

It seems to me that the best people to make this decision are the ones who are flying, not the armchair quarterbacks at Time. IMO, we need to scale up our exploration efforts with a return to the moon and ultimately Mars in a public/private partnership. The technological spin-offs of our space program since Mercury have been enormous. Perhaps that is the problem? The average Joe who doesn't follow the program doesn't understand the direct benefits to mankind.

I'm probably going to end up posting this on every Shuttle thread today, but it fits:

“Far better is it to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much or suffer much because they live in the gray twilight that knows not victory or defeat”

-Teddy Roosevelt

In agreement with your statement.

ya know . . . we have a model that worked in the US during the westward expansion: the Railroad.

Should the government confer "property rights" to a company (or consortium) for the purpose of encouraging the development, exploitation, and commercial use of space?

Did anyone notice that the transnational corporation that owns Time has suffered record losses - not just by it's own standards, but by anybody's standards.

As their company spirals ever downward it has become the mantra to chant that their high-tech component called AOL is the cause of all failures.

It is not surprising to see this mantra expanded by clueless "newsies" at Time/Life/CNN/Netscape/Atlanta Braves/AOL/etc. to cover the Space Shuttle or any other complex and advanced process.

It will be so good for America when the whole company goes bust and the assets are transferred to more deserving and honest owners.

The haunting fact of Challenger was that engineers who knew about the booster-joint problem begged NASA not to launch that day and were ignored.

I have a nasty feeling that in the end we will hear of engineers who begged Flight Control to modify Columbia's mission in light of possible damage to the heat tiles during liftoff and were ignored.

"It will NEVER be a ride to the supermarket for groceries."

As if that can't be dangerous. I lost my youngest brother to a drunk driver, while he was driving only 3 miles to pick up his paycheck from work.

I can think of no better "risk vs reward" situation than to venture into space.

There is a lot of truth in this article and comment.

:Our astronauts are like brave firefighters, always ready to go, always saying, "can do" with equipment that was obsolete the day it flew in 1981.

I am a passionate advocate of space exploration by man. If we made a national commitment of a scale like Apollo, the budget would be one trillion dollars.

I fear, however, that we are not willing to pay what it costs. That is not a reason to fly men in a system with a 1/75 failure rate.

Do it right, or don't do it.

This simply must be the end of the program.

I wonder if these chicken-little, cowardly, surrender monkeys have always been around, or if they are a new product of the spoiled brat generations of self-oriented consumer trash. Can you imagine the panic this coward would have, if he had been around when people were getting scalped? "HELP, HELP! Egad, everyone swim back to the old world - quick. Leave this place to the ants before you get staked out on an ant hill." Everyone would be eating sushi and speaking Japanese, if this smarmy little coward had been in charge after Pearl Harbor.

What we REALLY need, and NASA has killed 3 times already, is a replacement for the shuttle. We had a working prototype in the DC-X, and NASA killed it in favor of a theoretical X-33. . .which was entirely TOO theortical, they couldn't make it work in reality.

We need the old, problem-solving Can-Do! NASA of the Apollo, Gemini, and Mercury days, and not the sclerotic bureaucracy which it has become. . .

At the risk of giving away "national technical capabilities" I recall that during a prior flight, when I was working on the program, that tile damage was suspected. The ground cameras at Vandenberg (where I worked) were used to check the shuttle heat tiles. We could do that before 1990, BTW.

I grew up wanting to be an astronaut, went to the US Air Force Academy and flew F-16's. I say this because even I understand (reluctantly) that the era of manned fighters is ending, being replaced with UAV's and unmanned fighters without putting the pilot at risk. We aren't there quite yet but you can see it coming. The B-17 had 10 people on board - a navigatoor, bombadier, gunners, etc., all now replaced 50 years later on the B-2 by black boxes. It's just the way of things.

Similarly, it seems clear to me that manned space flight is simply too expensive (note - I didn't say dangerous) to continue at this time. Maybe a hiatus wouldn't be such a bad thing until SSTO rocket technology matures. Even the casual observer sees that the space station manning appears to be largly a maintenance staff tasked with keeping the thing in orbit.

Manned spaceflight was important to prove we that could land on another 'planet' and to investigate the long term effects of spaceflight on the human body. Now let's take a breather and stop launching people for the sake of it. If we choose to go to Mars and need flights to validate the technology (as Gemini did for Apollo), great. I felt this way before the tragedy - the reincarnation of NASA's "teacher in space" program was the final straw for me.

It's too heavy and too complex to do the one job it absolutely must do successfully every time - get people to & from orbit - and do all the other things it's being asked to do - carry cargo, do science expiriments, push the ISS around etc. We need to get rid of this turkey and build a smaller, lighter people-carrier, and leave the cargo-hauling to some other, unmanned vehicle. If privatization is the way to do that, great.

One day it will be practical to carry people, cargo & expiriments on one, manned reuseable vehicle. Either that day hasn't arrived, or this isn't the vehicle.

This must be a very sad day indeed for India and Israel.

You may not believe this but my dad used to subscribe to both Newsweak and Time - at the same time! An NEA member BTW.

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