[Jim Noble]

>>we have had two catastrophic failures now in around hundred flights (suggesting a catstrophic failure rate probability o!��5{��������50), and have now lost 40% of our five-vehicle fleet<<

And what is the engineering and production plan to deal with a loss rate of 1:50 flights?

The mission concepts of STS presumed a loss rate of 1:100,000 flights, not 1:50. There are no plans to produce a new orbiter every fifty flights-there are no plans to produce orbiters at all.

And there is no engineering program for a replacement.

Fly 'em until they're all gone, then leave space to the Chinese.

Is that really the plan?

[Xthe17th]

...there are no plans to produce orbiters at all.

I thought I heard that each orbiter had a life expectancy of 100 flights. With a 5 vessel fleet and approx 5 launches per year (107 launches in 20 years), the Space Shuttle program was good for 100 years...or until something better comes along.