So then it would be a question of 'how vulnerable is the exposed section to heat'? If the tiles do fall off, with no effect to date, then I would assume that some sections can withstand not having them better than others. What sections on the shuttle could cause this type of catestrophic failure due to overheating.
As of now we don't know if the 'explosion' the overheads saw was cause or effect of the disaster, but I imagine that finding out what overheated will lead to the culprit.
To date, most of the tile damage has been limited both in total number and number in each affected area. If there is a concentrated area of tile damage, especially where the black tiles are (nose, bottom, leading edges of the wing/tail), then there's going to be problems as the 3,000 degree surface temperature that was blocked somewhat by the black tiles works on the structure. Probably the most-vulnerable area would be near the root of the wing, with the tail coming a close second.