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I saw this day coming years ago regarding AOL. That's why I never touched their stock even when people were saying it was one of the safest dot.com buys out there. AOL is and always has been a lousy Internet provider with an annoying, clunky, ad-filled interface. They were fortunate enough to survive the "online service" wars (remember Prodigy, CompuServe, Delphi, GENie?) due to their obnoxious marketing strategies that included distributing over 750,000,000 free start-up disks that were mostly used for coasters or frisbees.

So they built up a base of 30,000,000 dial-up users that were paying an average of $15 a month. That translated to over $5 billion dollars in annual revenue just on subscriber fees alone. Wall Street went wild.

But the handwriting was on the wall five years ago. The AOL service was crappy with no prospect of getting better. The majority of the customer base were old grannies who didn't have a clue computer-wise. Their children and grandchildren set them up with AOL so they could send her e-mail and not feel guilty about not visiting anymore. They set her up with AOL because it was the cheapest and simplest online solution available and besides, they didn't have to use it, and "granny" didn't know better.

Well as cable modems become more and more prevalent, people are dropping AOL and not coming back. Fewer people are signing up for AOL. While the subscriber base is still holding steady, it is no longer growing. And all indications are that it is on the verge of collapsing and taking AOL on that final death spiral.

Once you get a cable connection - a fast, clean, uncluttered always-on connection to the Internet - there is no going back to AOL. Even for those who didn't know any better. AOL is in deep trouble.

They set her up with AOL because it was the cheapest and simplest online solution available and besides, they didn't have to use it, and "granny" didn't know better.

Oh absolutely.. Their business model seemed (to me at least) to rely almost solely on people who didn't have a clue. (But once they got a clue, they split like the house was on fire)

For the complete, total beginner it's perfect.. Just put in the disk, what could be simpler?

People progress through the newbie stage pretty fast though.. (especially after a hige bill for "online minutes") I think their ability to learn completely blindsided AOL.

When I first got a PC, I had dial-up for about two months. I immediately recognized the speed of the connection was not even in the same league as the speed of the most basic computer. I switched to cable which is three times the cost but is a million times more productive.

The tragedy is many dial-up users have no clue as to the true value of the Internet.

They own a Model T and see travel as an all-day trip on rutted dirt roads with constant breakdowns. Those with high-speed service are driving a Ferrari on the freeway.

If your time is worth anything at all, high-speed is worth its weight in gold.