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Enormous dislocations to the West caused by his blackmail would be the "likely" scenario.

Not in 1990.

Anyone who thinks that Saddam Hussein had any substantive animosity whatsoever towards the US up to the day that the US told him to get outta occupied Kuwait doesn't very well remember that he was "our boy" in the Iran-Iraq War every bit as much as Kuwait.

There was no chance of Saddam "blackmailing" the USA with oil in 1990 until we made him our Enemy. Or at least, there was no more chance of Saddam blackmailing the USA then there was a chance of Kuwait trying the same ploy, just to line their own pockets.

One self-interested tyrannical autocratic Arab despot is as "good" as another, whether it's an Iraqi tin-pot dictator in green fatigues or a fat Kuwaiti slave-master in white robes and a crown (You did know that the Wahhabist Death-Cult form of Islam reponsible for 9/11 was exported to Saudi Arabia from Kuwait, right?).

Playing "favorites" among vipers like these is just asking for trouble, especially when either would have been equally happy to sell us oil (or blackmail us) before we stuck our nose in.

As Burkeman1 says, we would be fools now to ignore the Saddamite threat, but only because we created this monster ourselves. If we were faced with Serb Orthodox terrorists, would you not take notice of the potential connection therein to the interventionist insanity of the Clinton-Albright regime against the Serbian state, a state which had done nothing to harm the USA whatsoever (and was our ally in two world wars) until we started bombing?

It is foolish to ignore the lessons of History in the name of a Government-worshipping faux "patriotism" which is nothing of the sort. (And I'm not accusing you of doing so, just making an observation about the tendency of some to do so...)

There was no chance of Saddam "blackmailing" the USA with oil in 1990 until we made him our Enemy

And if he followed Burkeman's scenario and had control of the Saudi Penninsula and 25 to 30 million barrels of oil? Virtually 80 % of Opec? You don't think he'd be dangerous then?

Even Pat Buchanan would (or should) be afraid of that. Like I said earlier, he doesent give a fig if half the people in his rule were starving in the street. The reason tyrants invade other countries to take them over is to get more leverage and fulfill their meglomaniac dreams.. (Duh !!)

Well- the argument is now moot. We created this mess and have to deal with it. We can't walk away now. But in "dealing" with it I am less than convinced that invading and occupying Iraq is the answer.

I am sure the war will be over rather quickly and that Iraq will fall easily. And I am sure many if not most Iraqis (at least the urban population) will welcome us initially as did the Kuwaitis. But as merely a few small bases in Saudi Arabia inspired the rage of OBL and his fanatical AQ followers and that lead to 9/11- I shudder to think what the occupation and imposition of a Western government in Iraq will lead to 10 years down the road. Not to mention the costs involved either.

I am astounded at the lack of any discussion of an exit strategy. To bring it up seems to infuriate many who support this war and that tells me the answer is basically never. But if reading certain periodicals which call for war is any indication- Iraq is but the staging ground for future wars.

It seems we just keep sinking deeper and deeper into this mess.

There was no chance of Saddam "blackmailing" the USA with oil in 1990 until we made him our Enemy. ... Playing "favorites" among vipers like these is just asking for trouble, especially when either would have been equally happy to sell us oil (or blackmail us) before we stuck our nose in.

I'm no expert in Middle Eastern history, for sure... but didn't Saddam "nationalize" (steal) those oil wells in the 1970s? Didn't they belong to American and British companies until he did that? I don't believe the Saudis ever nationalized our wells, did they? Isn't that some justification for protecting Kuwait and Saudi from Saddam? That they stick with the deals we brokered, while he violated and stole?