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Whereas the Democrats are hoping that the Racial Privacy Initiative can be defeated in March 2004, given that large numbers of Democrats will be attracted to the polls by a heavily-contested Democratic Presidential Primary while Republicans won't care as much about their uncontested Primary race.

On the other hand, Connerly has been counting on a year to gather support and funds for the RPI, so an early ballot might be the Dems best chance to defeat it.

Quite the chess game, isn't it? At least life ain't dull.

I've heard the argument that the Democrats will be voting in March 2004 and Republicans will stay home, but historically, that's just not the case. Republicans are more consistent voters, and Democrats are general election voters.

While the Democrat primary may entice them to come to the polls, a lot of Democrats actually like GWB. Also, and more important, ballot issues DO bring out conservatives to the polls, Republican AND Democrat. Look at Prop. 22 (Protection of Marriage). We were winning that in huge Democrat districts. Black and Hispanic precincts were voting 75% and 80% for Prop. 22. Do you think these people want to be paying more for their car? No ... and it's a GREAT outreach for the Republicans.

Regardless, there are going to be lots of juicy ballot initiatives in March to bring out the conservatives.

I think this referendum threat, because it is valid, holds water. Davis won't sign the bill. That's my prediction.