Posted on 01/18/2003 5:09:52 PM PST by MadIvan
A FRANTIC international effort to prevent a nuclear test by North Korea is under way amid diplomatic fears that its confrontation with America is spinning out of control.
Russia and Australia intervened over the weekend with pleas for restraint and America has asked China to dissuade Pyongyang from raising the stakes in the nuclear crisis.
Expert analysts of North Korea have warned their foreign ministries that the drama is unfolding in parallel with the showdown in Iraq and that a nuclear test could be staged within six to eight weeks.
In what one expert has called “the Baghdad scenario”, the regime of Kim Jong Il is expected to wreak maximum damage on American policy by timing any move at a critical moment, such as the entry of US soldiers into the Iraqi capital.
“They are choreographing this step by step with the Iraq crisis,” said one diplomat. “It’s straight from the works of Sun Tzu to strike while your enemy is weak.” Sun Tzu, the classical Chinese military strategist, also advocated deception and guile to win victory without battle.
By staging a nuclear test in one of the warrens of tunnels deep under North Korea’s mountains, Kim would send an unequivocal signal that he cannot be treated like Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi leader.
The CIA believes that Kim may possess two nuclear devices and the Chinese government thinks he may have five. But there has never been any proof that they actually exist.
A verified test would resolve that but it would also pose a dilemma for America, forcing it to decide between taking military action and striking a deal with a member of President George W Bush’s “axis of evil”. Its gravest consequence would be to maximise pressure on Japan to develop its own nuclear missiles, destroying the balance of power that has kept the peace in northeast Asia for half a century.
China last week told James Kelly, an American envoy, that Beijing’s confidence that Kim did not intend to build more nuclear weapons had been shaken, diplomats said. In a bleak assessment, a senior official told Kelly that North Korea’s decision on January 10 to pull out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty probably signalled a change in intentions.
Intelligence services from six nations have apparently proved unable to find out what Kim’s scientists are doing with stocks of plutonium from a Soviet- designed nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. Nor can they trace supplies of highly enriched uranium from a second, clandestine programme.
The regime shut down monitoring equipment at Yongbyon and expelled inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) before formally quitting the nuclear treaty, under which it had renounced the possession of atomic weapons.
“The IAEA remains a servant and a spokesman of the United States,” North Korea said in a statement. It claimed it had acted because of “the grave situation where our state’s supreme interests are most seriously threatened”.
A Russian envoy, Alexander Losyukov, the deputy foreign minister, yesterday boarded an ageing North Korean airliner to fly to Pyongyang with another plea for restraint.
He crossed paths with Maurice Strong, a United Nations emissary who returned from a visit to investigate the deteriorating conditions of life for the country’s 22m people.
A combination of politics and deprivation has locked Kim into a countdown that he may be unable to stop, say some of the seasoned veterans among the diplomatic community.
Strong’s investigation highlighted warnings that a cut-off in American and Japanese fuel and food aid — caused by the nuclear crisis — will bring the Stalinist state to the brink of a new humanitarian disaster within three months. “You cannot make the children, the ill people, the old people, victims of a political crisis which they have nothing to do with,” said Strong, in apparent criticism of American and Japanese policy.
According to UN documents, malnutrition and illness are spreading again. At least 2m North Koreans are believed to have died in a famine during the 1990s. The country has an estimated 40,000 severely malnourished children, many beyond the reach of foreign aid.
Boasting of its resilience, however, Kim’s regime last week mustered its citizens in freezing city squares for rallies denouncing America.
Kim could rattle nerves by test-firing a ballistic missile, as he did in 1998, when a Taepodong-type projectile flew over Japan. Experts fear the North Koreans could also confuse the international community by detonating a huge conventional explosion in a sealed cavern underground.
Scientists say the seismic effect would resemble a nuclear test but if the site was not “vented” it would not be possible to detect radiation, leaving open the possibility of a bluff.
Pessimistic diplomats have concluded that only a striking demonstration of Kim’s nuclear power will, in his opinion, force America to deal with him.
South Korea’s new government, facing a crisis it never wanted, has toughened its stand and reaffirmed its alliance with Washington. Lee Jun, the defence minister, said his army was prepared for war — which would draw in 37,000 US troops in the country.
Washington yesterday denied claims by Roh Moo-hyun, South Korea’s president-elect, that senior American officials had discussed the possibility last month of attacking North Korea because of its nuclear activities.
I recognize it could be extremely messy, but so will one of those atom bombs landing on America, Japan, or South Korea. In fact, tough as it may be, I insist that my government NOT permit a nuclear armed North Korea.
Do you remember the old Twilight Zone episode about a child with the power to do anything he wants, and everyone is forced to keep him happy at all times out of fear of his tantrums. Any time he became in the least bit upset he'd alter reality as punishment, transforming people he was angry with or simply making them disappear.
I can't help but think of Kim as that boy. His own people have to slave and dance for him, to suit his whims, and surely they die or disappear when his eyes narrow.
A good place to test a neutron bomb. Kills everything including biological agents, but leaves buildings and infrastructures intact. This way we can go in to see what they were working on afterward.
But the prudent course of action is to wait for the North Korean revolution. Surely President Bush would never launch an invasion merely because someone "crossed" him. But then again, Saddam Hussein allegedly tried to have Bush I assassinated when he traveled to Kuwait. Maybe that has something to do with his motives. After all, according to David Frum, the policy to remove Saddam was initiated well before 9/11, so maybe revenge is a factor.
You seem to have a particular dislike for President Bush. May I ask why you are not at Democrat Underground?
Ivan
I like your style. Always enjoy your posts and comments.
Cheers
Some time ago, in fact...
--Boris
If your enemy is too weak, he may be forced to respond with deadly force.
The threat to go to war with us, right at the moment we are poised for war with Saddam, is precisely intended to force us to divide our forces. It is almost a certainty that NK will continue to ramp up the pressure, to force us to pay attention to him, and to hopefully convince us to delay or cancel war with Iraq.
This is the whole purpose. If threats don't work, there may be an attack on a South Korean ship, or a commando attack on South Korean territory. This isn't far-fetched, it happens all the time, anyway. Usually the press takes little note, but in the present climate they will seize on it to try and draw us away from Saddam.
If that doesn't work, they may well attempt a nuclear test, or another missile launch. Or even intensify their shootouts with the South to some point just below full scale war. Anything to convince us he is the greater threat.
It is not a serious threat. It is a calculated ruse. Before it came to fullscale war, they can always pull back and "allow" themselves to be talked back down.
And if I miscalculate, and NK launches full scale war, South Korea is well capable of handling NK. They may not want to, it would mean a heavily damaged Seoul, but NK can be handled. If they were crazy enough to resort to one of their untested nukes, South Korea is under our nuclear umbrella. A serious attack on the south could well trigger a nuclear response from us, certainly if they initiate the use of nuclear weapons, possibly even if they do not. If there is any chance of our forces being over-run, or if Seoul is taking heavy damage, we might respond with nuclear weapons to silence the bombardment, and possibly to incinerate the attacking force.
With or without the nuclear option, NK would not survive a war with the South. So they must content themselves with saber rattling, and possibly an attack that approaches but falls short of full war.
In any case, we should let the South handle it, focus on what we have to do, and deal with NK, if there is anything left to deal with, according to our own timetable.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.