1. German government will fall over no-confidence vote engendered by higher taxation and reduced benefits spending. Greens out of new coalition.
2. Chavez out in Argentina. Coalition government will take over, will fall by year's end.
3. Saddam Hussein will experience a nasty accident.
4. North Korea will fail at extorting new aid from U.S., will attempt to do so from UN. UN will offer aid in return for inspectors, which NK will keep on a short leash.
5. Riots spread in Iran but no revolution - yet.
6. Attempted Wahhabi putsch in Saudi Arabia will cause factional fighting for control of successor government.
7. More fighting in Chechneya.
8. Islamic fundamentalists will attempt unsuccessfully to gain control of Pakistan government.
9. General decline in value of Euro - (wild guess) - $0.80 US. General gain in U.S. GDP - 3.5%. Oil stabilizing at $36-40 a barrel. (I'm gonna pay for this one).
10. BtD stripped of Mr. Universe title due to steroid use. Claims it was only acne medication.
That "post" button is so forever...
Happy New Year, everyone!
1. US victory in Iraq (aided capably by British forces) leads to disappearance of Saddam Hussein, presumed dead by most.
2. Iran is targeted next, after limited air strikes from British and US fighter jets, secular middle class reclaims Iranian government, but is beset with civil war from Islamic fundamentalists.
3. Islamic fundamentalists, deeply alarmed by events in Iraq and Iran, forcibly take over governments in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt, a few other Islamic countries. This leads to attacks on the new leaderships from US and British air forces, other allies step up to aid us, most notably Canada and Australia. The nations of western Europe dither, as Islamic unrest causes rioting and demonstrations in their countries.
4. North Korea fails to get the fuel oil it needs, South Korea makes appeasement gestures toward the North, Bush removes US troops, and turns over the bases to the South Koreans. Desperate, and emboldened by the withdrawl of US forces, North Korea attacks the South, Seoul is left in ruins. Japan urges the US to make limited nuclear strikes in Korea, but only conventional bombs are used.
5. By mid-2003, news media outlets will start calling it World War III. This galvanizes support for the war effort in the US, Canada, and Britain (its already strong in Australia), and among the oldest generations in Western Europe, who remember WW II and its aftermath.
6. The stock market swings wildly on news of the war, but finally stabilizes midyear, then rises steadily, as defense spending shores up the economy. Oil prices rise in the first quarter, but then plummet upon massive pumping from Iraq, then the parts of Iran under control of the secular middle class interim government.
7. Falling oil prices cause a final collapse of the government in Venezuela. A US-sponsored puppet government is installed, but resentment throughout South and Central America increases.
8. The Republican majorities hold strong in the face of the war, Democrats are stymied to find an issue, and the Democratic primary race loses focus. Six or seven Democrat candidates look equally viable with each other by the time of the Iowa caucuses.
9. President Bush's popularity remains strong, at levels only slightly below immediate post 9/11 levels,
10. Osama bin Laden will not be found, but will find his power limited solely to isolated acts of terrorism in a few free countries (that will swing public opinion in those lands towards fighting the war on Islam) and battling on the side of Islamic fundamentalists in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, most notably.