Replies

Yes, Paul Erlich is an unattractive person (I'm told Simon wasn't too hot either). Yes, he was wrong and arrogant ... repeatedly.

Yes, business cycles and other technicalities make it difficult to gauge real prices and their direction. Difficult, but not impossible.

We have skyscrapers because cheap land in major cities is simply unavailable. Resorts which were pristine only a few years ago are now trashed and over-crowded. Water is expensive and getting more so. What evidence will convince you?

Location, location, location. We've not yet run out of good cheap land but we're exploiting it at an incredible rate and - as real-estate agents like to point out when they're selling beach-front property - noone is making any more of it.

We've not yet run out of good cheap land but we're exploiting it at an incredible rate and - as real-estate agents like to point out when they're selling beach-front property - noone is making any more of it.

So when the world's population levels out (before the end of the century, at current estimates), why will we need more land? And for a more detailed rebuttal to your position, read the chapter on over-population in P.J. O'Rourke's All the Troubles in the World

I work in a natural resources field. I work at a state University. All around me there are folks that have your beliefs, and there are also those that share my beliefs. It is my experience that Malthusians are generally wrong about their facts, conclusions and their prognostications. This does not mean that I feel there is no need for continuing conservation and improving resource use, it's just that so much of what passes for 'fact' is, in fact, factless.

From your statements...

"We have skyscrapers because cheap land in major cities is simply unavailable."

We have skyscrapers because builders and their corporate clients want status symbols. The term skyscraper was coined long before land was scarce or expensive in downtown urban areas.

"Water is expensive and getting more so."

Water is expensive for those who wish to water lawns in the cF Mediteranian climates like California and Arizona. Like energy, high use begets high costs.

"We've not yet run out of good cheap land but we're exploiting it at an incredible rate."

How so? Fact is, we're retiring good agricultural land at greater rates than has ever happened in our countries history because efficiencies of production have increased at unparalleled rates.

On forested land, we grow more biomass than we have cut evey year since WWII. On Federal lands, logging has been reduced 85% over the last 15 years. We can still boast of over 70% of the forested acreage in the US at the landing of Columbus is here today and the rate is growing each year (not all the same acres though).

In any event, I fear there is little I can say, or evidence I could show, to convince you that the sky is NOT falling.