Unfortunately, i suspect this is what destiny holds.
NASA has become too sclerotic to think outside the box. The Chinese will cut corners, take risks with their taikonauts, lose one or more crews, get to Mars and back, probably before 2010, IMHO.
Alternative: a commercial private company does the same, launched from some bizarre African country which provides it a flag of convenience -- assuming the U.N. doesn't try to get into the act to keep private companies from competing w/ bloated space bureaucracies...