Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: David
Right now the Euro is edging toward a price of $1.03 (It was around 89 cents a year ago). Gold is up again, 346.30 bid, 347.30 asked.

Although Euro-land is sucking wind economically, as is Japan, they also are net positive in their current accounts and balance of payments with the US. That means their currencies are relatively
safer than the dollar, and as the dollar continues its slide, this advantage will accelerate.

The real danger is a precipitous drop in the dollar, with a corresponding flood of foreign money out of US equities (foreigners currently own 24% of the US Stock markets as well as a high percentage of US government and corporate bonds.) That's where the return to high nterest rates would come into play, as well as the collapse of the stock mrket. A collapse of the real estate market would quickly follow.

I'm planning to move more assets into Euros or other currencies, foreign bonds, gold and gold shares, and hopefully profit nicely in the coming year.
17 posted on 12/25/2002 4:38:40 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies ]


To: hinckley buzzard
"Right now the Euro is edging toward a price of $1.03 (It was around 89 cents a year ago)."

Most of that happened early last summer when the Euro went from .88 to 1.01; it then backed off to .987 and traded in a range in that area until the last couple of weeks--no denying that the move out of the range up to the 1.0293 area looks like a resumption of the trend.

Balance of payments and current accounts have been strongly against the US and in favor of Euro and Japan throughout the period--so it is difficult to see that as the driving force. Further, I can still see significant overseas transactions where the overseas profit in US dollars is promptly repatriated to the US in some form--much of it into the US stock market.

At this moment, gold is clearly in a strong uptrend--and it is in uptrend against the Euro and Yen also. So we tend to expect gold to continue up whatever happens to the dollar exchange rate. Point is that except for gold shares, it is difficult to find an easy trouble free way to do this. But wish you the best of luck. Because I do think the gold is going to continue to move up for some time.

18 posted on 12/25/2002 5:22:42 PM PST by David
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies ]

To: hinckley buzzard
That's where the return to high nterest rates would come into play, as well as the collapse of the stock mrket. A collapse of the real estate market would quickly follow.

Collapse of the stock market will cause real estate values to go up,not down. Property is ultimately the safest investment. When people lose confidence in the stock market, they head for property. Can anyone name one wealthy family in America that does not have a major investment in commercial and/or residential property? Vanderbilts, Mellons, DuPonts and the like didnt get rich by renting other people's property.

21 posted on 12/25/2002 6:09:08 PM PST by doosee
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson