Posted on 12/22/2002 7:36:29 AM PST by freeforall
Arctic ice cap to vanish in 80 years, study says Kyoto climate treaty came 'too late' to save polar ice from melting
Jonathan Leake The Times, London
Sunday, December 22, 2002
The ice cap covering the North Pole will vanish in less than 80 years as climate change melts it away, say British meteorological researchers.
The area covered by ice has shrunk by 20 per cent since the 1950s and its average winter thickness has reduced by 40 per cent since 1970. From detailed measurements of the rate of melting, the Met Office's Hadley Centre for monitoring climate change predicts the ice-cap will disappear around September 2079.
The Met Office research, to be published next year, assumes emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will continue to rise at their current rate. Many believe this will happen since the U.S. rejected the Kyoto climate treaty that would have cut emissions. Canada ratified the treaty Monday.
Geoff Jenkins, head of climate change prediction, said only a few icebergs would be left. "Our figures suggest that virtually all the ice will be gone," he said.
Even if the world reduced emissions by the maximum possible, it would only give a few years reprieve, says the Met Office.
"The greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere mean we will keep getting warmer for decades, whatever we do," said Mr. Jenkins. "Cutting emissions is important, but the effects will come too late to save the polar ice cap."
The loss of the ice cap will open up the Northwest Passage and enable ships to save thousands of kilometres on journeys between Europe and the Far East.
It could also change weather patterns. The larger expanse of open sea would increase evaporation and rainfall, possibly causing wetter summers in Europe. It might also allow more plankton to grow, thus boosting fish stocks.
For other wildlife, however, the change could be disastrous. Polar bears and seals would be hit hard because they rely on floating ice to hunt and breed.
"The north polar wildlife is unique, but it is going to have to adapt fast if it is to survive," said Peter Wadhams, professor of ocean physics at Cambridge University.
The thinning of the ice has already hampered some expeditions to the pole. David Mill, a Briton, had to be rescued last May after finding his way blocked by thin ice.
The melting of the North Pole will not raise sea levels as all the ice is floating. There are, however, fears the temperature increases could melt Antarctica, the southern ice cap. This sits above sea level on a buried continent so melting would sharply raise sea levels.
© Copyright 2002 The Ottawa Citizen
Uhmmm. Water vapor, which is by far the most prevalent of the "greenhouse gases," is released in copious quantities from the nuclear power plants that have cooling towers.
On a clear day, Three Mile Island, near Harrisburg, PA, releases a cloud of water vapor that can be seen from the air as soon as the plane takes off from New York City.
As for the seals and polar bears, I feel bad for them, but that's the way the cookie crumbles.
The temperature outside my house is 8 degrees warmer than it was 6 hours ago. From detailed meausrements of the rate of warming, I predict that if this trend continues, I will be dead within a week.
Again!
Now THAT is an excellent question.
I was at my parents house watching TV not too long ago and they had one of the "in search of" (the one hosted by spock, you remember?) episodes on some satellite channel.
Commander Spock was talking ominously about how we were all doomed to die in another "ice age" that would certainly overtake and destroy us, just like the dinosaurs.. Oh my.. OH MY!
I couldn't stop laughing.. I snickered all the way through it, especially when he said "scientists predict"
LOL!
Prediction: It will continue to be cold in the winter in the Arctic and there will be ice all the way from Barrow to West Spitsbergen in season.
What do they bite on?
I was actually taught this in my Enviromental Science class in college in 1979. It was taught as a fact, just like the sky is blue. We were supposed to be having mass shortages by the early nineties and it would all be gone by 2000.
Water vapor has a half-life of nine days before it precipitates, carbon dioxide a century. To get the same shift in global climate you'd have to evaporate H2O at 400,000 times you release CO2. I do not know what the net impact of H2O vs. CO2 is. (How many degrees increase in surface temprature for a given increase in a particular greenhouse gas?) Certainly clouds (that condensate again) scatter sunlight back into space, cooling the earth. CO2 can't. The major role of water vapor in the "global warming" debate is that the hydrostatic equilibrium can be shifted by increasing CO2, not that we could ever dump enough H2O into the atmosphere to make a difference. The way greenhouse gases work is that the surface of the earth converts visible light to heat and hence to infrared radiation. (All the wavelengths of sunlight that can be absorbed by the atmosphere are absorbed in the thermosphere, a 1000 miles above the surface and far too well insultated from the surface to much influence the temprature here.) The infrared radiation is absorbed by the greenhouse gases and which are warmed and act to re-warm the surface, shifting the thermal equilbrium point higher. That's why its cooler on top of a mountain, even though the sun is brighter. The air up there isn't warmed by the earth quit as well.
This is like when that guy made the Statue of Liberty disappear, right? I don't think those nancyboys in Vegas with the tigers are even going to be around in 50 years. (Their makeup and codpieces will be, though.)
So who's going to perform the trick, and will it be pay-per-view? Hope the weather's good so the satellites can cover the trick.
You mean, no more ice fishing?
What do they bite on?
Scotch.
Interesting.
Where's your data for this?
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