What about these illnesses?

self ^ | 12/16/02 | Self

[Billthedrill]

A natural enough suspicion, but if it's biological warfare it's pretty badly done. Antibiotic-resistant Strep has been with us for decades. Food poisoning has been with us for all of history, recorded or otherwise. West Nile isn't (mostly) fatal and confers a lifelong immunity, and the Norwalk virus doesn't do much exept make you vomit.

I'm thinking if we have a problem here it's hypersensitivity brought on by the knowledge that there really are some very bad people out there who would be happy to do very bad things to us...if they could. But biowarfare turns out to be much harder than it sounds, which is one reason it wasn't used all that much. We mustn't let our guard down, but IMHO this isn't it.

[Jael]

Isn't a a "Norwalk Type" illness, not the Norwalk itself?

[VOA]

. They had many military and ex-military people calling up and confirming that these
kind of illnesses are pretty frequent...especially on ships and in the barracks.

A fellow I met at work was a doctors assistant (medic?) on a US Navy ship for a couple
of years. I'd told him I'd had cellulitis (bacterial infection of skin).
He said they had to treat that a couple times a year on his ship...no rhyme or reason...
people just got infected, got a fever and a rash (hot to the touch).

A round of antibiotics almost never fails to clear it up.
(If I'd lived 100 years ago, I'd probably be minus my leg that gets cellulitis
every couple of years...)

[Morrigan]

Maine is having an unusually high incidence of the Norwalk virus. There are a lot of people showing up in emergency rooms (I guess it is pretty miserable to have). This just happened over the course of MAYBE two weeks. In that time, I have known about a dozen people that have caught it--thankfully I haven't gotten it yet. It may just be a coincidence......but you never know!

[GirlShortstop]

It really started to hit me as odd, with West Nile, the cruise ship illness outbreaks...

Your thought process isn't peculiar by any stretch.  West Nile, which isn't atypical anymore here in NJ has, for a number of years, always been a terrorism hunch in the back of my mind.  We know that birds carry it.... but how and why are crows, non-migratory here, getting infected?  

There was an article a couple months back (read it here on F.R.) by a Physicians assn., and this organization subscribed to a West Nile bio-terror theory involving Castro.  That caught my attention because of the elderly man in FL who was deathly sick from inhalation anthrax at American Media... he blamed,  guess who?... Castro!!  IMO, that ex-Cuban ol' codger's not's so crazy after all ;-)

The cruise ship outbreaks smells ... it's even prompted a Medical Director acquaintance to speculate about the likelihood of terrorism (not a tinfoil type-of-guy by any means).

[sistergoldenhair]

What I would like to see is the stats for the last, say 5 years

From the CDC website:
Trends Worldwide-- rates of invasive disease, STSS and NF increased from the mid-1980s to early 1990s. Rates of invasive disease have been stable over the last 5 years in the United States. Increases in the rate and severity of disease associated with increases in prevalence of M-1 and -3 serotypes (emm types 1 and 3). Resistance to erythromycin has increased worldwide.
Approximately 8,800 annual cases of invasive disease (3.2/100,000 population) occurred in 2000; approximately 4% were STSS and 6% were NF. Over 10 million noninvasive GAS infections (primarily throat and skin infections) occur annually.
Note this data is not updated to 2002.

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

More likely the outbeaks are simple failure to wash ones hands, clean fruits and vegetables etc. Remember most of the worlds populations do not believe that "Germs" cause disease. That is a Wextern idea.

[kevin]

"Could it be that there have always been these strange illnesses but no one connected the dots to report it?"

Um....no.

[kevin]

"You forgot to mention all the invasive species that have been showing up in ecologically sensitive areas."

Bump..

[kevin]

"Credit it to instant communication!"

Um...no.

[kevin]

"I'm thinking if we have a problem here it's hypersensitivity brought on by the knowledge that there really are some very bad people out there...

Bill..when is the last time 5,000 US Marines went into stand down mode on training immediately preceding a wartime event or at any other time?...i don't

Do you remember last year, that in less than 2 months time more than four cruise ships sailed in with really sick people?...I don't..

Remember only 5 or 6 years ago were all 50 states contaminated with West Nile Virus, blood supplies weakened by it, poultry and livestock infected? And btw...too many it is fatal, they'll find no comfort in your hypersensitivity blind fold.

Has it been routine for an American president in the last 40 years to encourage and order innoculations for Small Pox? ..It hasn't..

Remember when we were kids, all the parents on the block were being given Potassium Iodine/Iodate for their families safety?..I don't.

Think! This is not hypersensitivity...this is a problem.

[Capriole]

1. Bugs mutate. We no longer have to deal with the Black Death but we do have AIDS. Disease changes through time. This doesn't mean there's a conspiracy.
2. Antibiotic-resistant TB, strep, and other bugs have been developing as a problem for many years. Used to be you could just take penicillin to knock anything back; today we have to use progressively stronger and stronger agents, and develop new ones as the occasional bug that is resistant to clarithromycin or whatever propagates. Nothing conspiratorial about that either. It's our own fault.
3. West Nile was a problem for years in the Middle East, and my European and English friends have watched its slow progress across Europe, thence to the U.S. It is not a terrorist plot, either. Birds get it because birds don't wear mosquito repellent, so they get bitten.
4. I grant that there are a lot of bizarre things going on and I can't explain the ship viruses away. But we should bear in mind that because of the ease of air transport these days, we are subject now to lots of diseases that we would once have been isolated from.

[Quix]

Been wondering similar things.

Certainly there are plenty of terrorists and hostile governments who are intent on degrading our quality of life and our survivability--as well as our defense capabilities. Plenty are intent on winding up the fear quotient wholesale.

That seems like enough dots to me.

I can't believe they are going to do such things MORE obviously than we have seen. It seems to me biological stuff would function more or less best if initially seeded quietly with sizeable diversity.

But then what do I know.

[widowithfoursons]

Well, those are stats, but they don't give enough info. Any more stats lurking?

[Billthedrill]

Oh, I assure you, I have thought about it. The resurrection of smallpox vaccination is, to my mind, a clear indication that there is persuasive evidence in the hands of intelligence agencies that a development regimen has been detected in an area that would indicate either that it isn't restricted to the state entity responsible or that the state entity responsible is insufficiently secure, or that the entity responsible is private. It wouldn't be difficult; cultivation of such a virus is within the capabilities of most graduate viral pathology students.

But the other incidences you bring up are not only poor examples of biowarfare, they are well within the parameters of perfectly natural pathogenic development. The only thing better at wiping humans out than ourselves, is Nature herself; she's been at it longer. Such relatively new developments as Ebola, Marburg, and HIV are surpassed by older, deadlier developments such as measles, plague, typhus, typhoid fever, malaria, and yes, smallpox itself, none of which were products of any laboratory, and frankly, neither were the first three - we just aren't that good yet. Not that it matters, its victims are dead anyway.

[nicmarlo]

I'm not a doctor, so I can't answer you "correctly," but most everything I go to says Norwalk virus.....type that into google, and you'll see what I mean. Even on the page that describes its symptoms, etc., calls it that on a website by the USFDA. Here's a link I was earlier referring to about means of transmission, along with lots of other info. about it. The website also calls it "Norwalk Virus":

Norwalk Virus Infection

[nicmarlo]

It may just be a coincidence......but you never know!

I agree, you don't know; on the one hand, you risk "looking foolish" by blaming things on terrorists (or somebody), OTOH, you risk "being foolish" by ignoring everything or believing it's all naturally occurring or coincidences. There seems to be no position to take, on any one event any more, where you look like a paranoid or an ostrich, to different people.

[TrappedInLiberalHell]

Excellent summation of the dilemma. The more you try to explain things away as some shade of normal, the better you get at it. It's less comfortable to believe the alternative (terrorism), because that requires dealing with it, mentally and physically.

That's not to say that the cruise ship and military incidents are definitely terrorism, but it is a mistake, in this day and age, to immediately try to explain it away. We can't afford to assume the hypothesis that these incidents have a benign cause. THAT is likely why President Bush is ordering the Smallpox vaccines for troops. He has the burden of making that decision you described, and unlike his predecessor, he is erring on the side of caution.

[nicmarlo]

. . . it is a mistake, in this day and age, to immediately try to explain it away. We can't afford to assume the hypothesis that these incidents have a benign cause.

I agree, a very big and foolish mistake to do so. Anticipate/plan for the worst (terrorism), hope for the best (naturally occurring/coincidence). Err on the side of caution...best thing to do. Yes, this means everyone will have to "deal with it," from the CDC on down to the little guy on the street. But, really, what "sound" alternative is there? We risk our lives and health otherwise. Peace of mind can come in taking precautions, too. Why, that's what folks live by in California as pertains to earthquakes. When I lived there, the schools (and other public entities) were constantly driving it into the parents (via the kids) to have clean, unused huge garbage cans filled with emergency supplies (blankets, water, first aid kits, food supplies for four days, enough for each person in family, batteries, portable radio, flashlights, etc., in anticipation of a major earthquake). This did not mean people lived in fear everyday, that their lives were "jeopardized" or "traumatized" by being urged to "be ready." It just equipped them for what is perceived a "high inevitability." What is wrong with this approach as pertains to terrorists/terrorist activities? I say nothing.