The possibility of a Mexican/Atzlan secession is one that's more likely. I have to agree with Huntington on this one. Second and third generation Hispanics have incentives to assimilate (personal note: I'm a second-gen myself, although I'm of Greek descent). The intermarriage trend that you mentioned is one sign of that. Some of the other pressures to assmiliate that existed for my grandparents are still in force today, from the immediate needs of survival in a new land to helping your kids climb higher up the ladder than you.
However, the Mexican/Atzlan situation is different in some respects from the immigration wave of the last century. Resistance to assimilation is high, aided by the ease of travel and communication with a mother country sharing a land border with us (contrast this with the immigration wave at the turn of the 20th century, when travel/communications were more difficult, aiding in severing ties to the mother country). The multicultural fetish exhibited by TPTB doesn't help a whole lot either. History plays in this too, since we did annex a good-sized chunk of their turf that they consider to be theirs. And, the numbers themselves may prove decisive. After all, if your cultural kin are the majority, why bother assimilating in a culture that's in retreat? Especially if you can use your voting power backed by sheer numbers to extract wealth from that structure to tide you over (another key difference between now and a century ago), while clinging on to the culture of the mother country and building an economic base that spans both sides of the border?
As far as leadership for a secession goes, those second and third generation folks with their acquired Protestant work ethic, their wealth, and their cultural ties to their ancestral lands may provide it, especially if the economics are there to support it, and if there's some serious racial animosity built up. Take a look at this article for one possible indicator of this (ie. the renewed interest in Spanish by second/third gen types). The fact that there's a "La Raza" doesn't sound too promising to those that aren't part of it if the militant types come to the fore. As to the timing of this, I think that the 2015-2030 timeframe makes sense (that's when the Boomers die off). The remaining determining factor is whether the US will use force to prevent this from happening or not. A Hispanic Ghandi-type leading a civil disobedience campaign, or a bloody Bosnia complete with ethnic cleansing campaigns? And what happens if Atzlan becomes a reality? I know some neo-Confederate types would be more than happy to use that as a precedent ("If they can do it, why can't we?").
Carol Swain is right when she said that the certainty that whites will be a minority is the biggest card racists of all types have to play. This ties into your comments concerning causes of lower birthrates among whites. I would add to it by saying that another thing that depresses birthrates is whether you have hope in the future or not. For many that are looking ahead, the future looks pretty bleak for them and any children they hope to raise. A lot of factors tie into that (taxes, welfare, jobs, etc.), that tend to stack the deck against whites. Hell, it stacks the deck against anyone that's productive when you have to shoulder the load for everyone else too.
Have you ever read The Coming Anarchy by Kaplan, by any chance? The article’s a bit dated, but one thing I find interesting is his concept of a bi-furicated world, where you have Fukuyama's Last Man safe and secure (a small minority), and Hobbes’ First Man (everyone else) living a life that’s “nasty, brutish, and short”. With that in mind, we may both unfortunately be right. We turn into a mega-Brazil with all the barriers between haves and have-nots. The haves sit behind very well-fortified walls with all the ancient hatreds ironed out by economic prosperity, and Swain’s “white nationalists” get a receptive have-not audience looking for security from the predation of others and scapegoats to retaliate against. Any way you slice it, the prospects for Western Civ look pretty dim to me at the moment.
Well, here's to hoping that my pessimism remains just that. A long post, and I'm a bit tardy with it. Feel free to correct me or rip me to shreds. :)
Texas, in other words, will be no pushover for a Hispanic takeover, in either slow motion or double time.
Now all this can change in a decade or less. California was the state that gave us Ronald Reagan and strongly conservative senators like S. I. Hayakawa, George Murphy, and William Knowland. But the Golden State also gave us Earl Warren and the Browns, pere and fils. California has had a history of labor radicalism not known to Texas, e.g., Harry Bridges' longshoremen's union and Cesar Chavez's farm workers' union. Also, Hollywood, though not as monolithically leftist in its Golden Era as it is today, had plenty of liberals and Communists among the actors, writers, and technicians. Texas has no parallel to California's entertainment industry.
Texas falling into Hispanic hands is the key to the viability of Atzlan. I won't say it is impossible. But neither is it inevitable.