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Ya. Nickels I don't think would have the votes. The caucus is more moderate than he is (a majority are), and won't like his image. (Granted, personal relationships mean a lot, and I don't know who is on good personal terms with whom.) His elevation might cause Chafee, etc. to threaten to exit. Plus, since he is the guying that came out with the knife, everyone with good relations with Lott will go for someone other than Nicles. I would think Frist would be a more concensus candidate. My guess, is that if Bush wants Lott out via a new election, then Frist will hop in. If he doesn't, Lott might well beat Nickles. In any event, I would suggest that placing your money on Nickles would be a poor bet, at least if the spread is not hugely in your favor.