Analyst Says That Louisiana Results Show Nation Still Divided 50-50

The Shreveport (LA) Times ^ | 12-10-02 | Camire, Dennis

[Theodore R.]

La. runoffs please Democrats Dennis Camire / Times Washington Bureau Posted on December 10, 2002

WASHINGTON - Democrats may have been down after defeats across the country in November, but their victories in Saturday's Louisiana runoffs show they're not out.

"The mood has changed dramatically as a result - just from one election," Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota said Monday. "It does lay to rest ... this notion that somehow this was a major Republican sweep this (election) cycle. There was no such thing, and Louisiana proves it with an exclamation point."

Republicans were euphoric after Nov. 5 elections gave the GOP control of the Senate with 51 seats, leaving Democrats with 47 seats and one independent who votes with them.

Now that Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu has been re-elected 52 percent to 48 percent over GOP challenger Suzanne Haik Terrell, the Senate split is 51-48-1, a Republican increase of one seat.

"That's not bad," Daschle said. "We let a lot of the pundits help frame our own mind-set about this. We all fell to this notion of high expectations."

In the House on Nov. 5, Republicans increased their margin of control by at least five seats; one House race remains undecided. At the same time, Republicans emerged with 26 of the nation's 50 governor's offices.

"Some of the momentum that was perceived coming out of November 5 was an exaggeration," independent analyst Stuart Rothenberg said. "Too much was made about (President George W.) Bush and what a great Republican year it was and what a debacle it was for the Democrats."

A series of visits from GOP luminaries - including both presidents Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Sen.-elect Elizabeth Dole - backed with millions of dollars from national Republican committees boosted Republican hopes in the days before the runoff.

But by delivering the black voter base to polls in New Orleans and other places, Landrieu was able to slow the GOP's momentum. An abundance of GOP attack ads and the cavalcade of Republican stars also backfired, motivating Democratic turnout. Senate GOP leader Trent Lott of Mississippi, who also trekked to Louisiana for Terrell, didn't return phone calls Monday to his Washington and Jackson, Miss., offices.

Democrats also received an unexpected gift in the form of a congressional seat: In the state's Republican 5th District, Democrat Rodney Alexander, a state legislator, slipped by Republican Lee Fletcher, former aide of incumbent GOP Rep. John Cooksey, to capture the seat by 518 votes.

Revitalized Senate Democrats could provide a hurdle to GOP dreams of having a Republican House, Senate and White House finally approving their tax-cut policies, social agenda, and conservative judges.

"This was a big morale booster for Democrats generally and Senate Democrats in particular," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "They will be more inclined to stick together. And if they pick their filibuster items wisely, then Bush has got a big new problem."

Republicans were disappointed about their candidates' defeat in Louisiana, Rothenberg said.

"This kind of jars some Republicans and brings them back a little bit to reality," he said.

The victories for Landrieu and Alexander say that Democrats are still in the political game, said Wayne Parent, who specializes in Louisiana politics for Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge.

"The string of victories that President Bush had in November were very important for the Republican Party, but clearly Democrats aren't dead yet," he said. "It's just a reminder that the country is split pretty 50-50 these days, and I don't think this was any fundamental shift."

[boomop1]

This is BS, it only shows that in urban areas where they bus in the ignorant morons and buy votes, a revisit to the map would be in order it is blinding red showing a conservative country.

[randita]

Revitalized Senate Democrats could provide a hurdle to GOP dreams of having a Republican House, Senate and White House finally approving their tax-cut policies, social agenda, and conservative judges.

It was the negativity, obstructionism, and combative posture that cost the Democrats dearly on Nov. 5. I'm delighted to see that instead of adopting a strategy of cooperation now, they'll likely return to their pre-Nov. 5 persona.

[Jennifer in Florida]

This election showed that LOUISIANA is 50/50, not the country. I think Terrell did very well, considering a Republican has not won a Senate seat in LA since reconstruction.

[Theodore R.]

Jennifer, Terrell ran 34,000 votes behind Woody Jenkins in 1996, who ran when AR Bill was again winning the electoral votes of LA. Terrell was overrated. She did not present a concise philosophical approach in the campaign but relied too much on outsiders. We have seen the limit of bringing in outsiders in such races. Henceforth if G.W. does not come in to campaign and the candidate loses (VA and NJ, 2001), it may mean that his appearance would not have made a difference at any rate.

[Zack Nguyen]

America is still 50/50. It is divided culturally. America has yet to decide, collectively, if it wants to live in a Tom Daschle nation or a Goerge W. Bush nation.

In Louisiana, however, Mary Landrieu had to appear to be extremely conservative and pro-Bush to have any hope of winning. That and it took a last-second phone call from President Clinton to a local black leader to turn out the vote massively. All that and she still barely won.

[apillar]

Let's see:

Louisiana has never elected a Republican senator - EVER
Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 - 1
Landrieu had to run as a conservative FOG (Friend of George) to win.
Landrieu avoided Clinton, Gore, etc. like the plague
Republicans were less than fully motivated -- Republican control of the senate had already been decided on Nov 5.

With all this being considered Landrieu still only one by a margin of 52 - 48 not exactly a landslide for an incumbent.

If the Democrat's want to think this is some great national trend then far be it from me to stop them. But, I for one wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[anniegetyourgun]

However, you must remember that most of the country is simply apathetic to that question. Only those who vote appear to be divided. The majority don't give a rip.

[Theodore R.]

Again, it is LOST OPPORTUNITY. When do you think the GOP can win a Senate seat in LA?

[jerod]

50/50 except the Republicans are little more equal, because they control everything. Ha! Ha!

[gop_gene]

It was the negativity, obstructionism, and combative posture that cost the Democrats dearly on Nov. 5. I'm delighted to see that instead of adopting a strategy of cooperation now, they'll likely return to their pre-Nov. 5 persona.

But unlike before, this time around they'll be in the minority and, they presume, won't get the blame. Unfortunately they're probably right about that. All the average, non-political person possibly knows is republicans "control" everything, so I don't think the gop claiming democrat obstructionism (even if it's true) will wash.

[wku man]

"This is BS, it only shows that in urban areas where they bus in the ignorant morons and buy votes, a revisit to the map would be in order it is blinding red showing a conservative country."

It's a mistake to assume that someone is a conservative simply because he has an "R" following his name. Many of the Pubbies in Congress are RINOs (McCommie, Specter, Snowe, Collins, Hatch, Kolbe, Shays, and dozens more, including my worthless Congresscritter, C.W. Young) , and therefore only one link higher on the food chain than a smarmy liberal Rat. I believe one Zell Miller is worth a handfull of McCommies.

Even our president, who can do no wrong by many on this forum, is hardly what I would call a conservative. A conservative would've vetoed CFR so fast the document would've caught fire. A conservative would slam the door in the faces of the millions of illegal scumbag aliens who're breaking into our nation every year, and round up and deport those who have already broken in. A conservative wouldn't have let the Chicoms take our P-3 Orion and it's crew hostage for three weeks. I could go on, but I'm already getting longer than I intended.

As far as the red/blue map is concerned, it's true that the map shows the overwhelming area of the nation voted Pubbie in 2000 (again, just because someone votes that way doesn't mean they're a conservative), but the population is divided 50-50 nonetheless. Utah and Wyoming are a heckuva lot more sparsely populated than the Eastern or Leftist coasts.

IMHO, the nation is split 50-50 Pubbie/Rat, and the Pubbies are split 50-50 conservative/RINO. I think the author has it at least partly right.

Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!

[gop_gene]

It really sucks how Louisiana has such a bizarre election process. Had Landrieu won outright on election day, the democrats would be deprived this small ray of hope they've so gleefully seized upon one month later in their lame attempt to portray it as big a victory as all the victories we had on November 5th.

[Theodore R.]

This "bizarre election process," as you call it was conceived by former Democrat Governor Edwin Washington Edwards (1972-80; 1984-88; 1992-96). EWE is now in prison in Fort Worth on a bribery conviction. The Justice Department later required that congressional primaries in LA correspond with the national general election. Therefore, the LA general election -- popularly and erroneously called a "runoff" -- comes a month after the general election in other states. People in LA like their own brand of election law. EWE conceived the law as a way to weaken the Republican Party, for his GOP opponent had polled 43 percent against him in the 1972 general election. While the law did not stop three Republican gubernatorial victories, it has helped to assure Democrat control of the two U.S. Senate seats because Democrat incumbents are so entrenched in these positions.

[Theodore R.]

Another thing: 30 years ago, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in LA polled 43 percent of the vote. This year, the Republican senatorial nominee polled 48 percent. That is not a staggering increase for 30 years of work!

[KeyWest]

Welcome to FR. Actually, the spin would be on no matter what the outcome. The truth is the dems lost historically this past election and it will not get better in 2004. They can only win by being what they are not (like Landrieu and Clinton). Unfortunately, dems cannot stand on what they believe, but must lie.

[Malcolm]

I like the LA system. The winner has to garner 50%+ of the vote and spoilers like the LP and Greens can't spoil those elections. Laziness and intolerance on the part of some Republicans cost us that Senate seat, nothing more.....

[Theodore R.]

Yes, the Libertarians can't have much impact in LA unless they get enough votes to keep a Republican out of the general election. Some "general elections" in LA are Democrat v. Democrat rivalry.

[chimera]

With all this being considered Landrieu still only one by a margin of 52 - 48 not exactly a landslide for an incumbent.

True, its not a landslide, it is a narrow but decisive victory. Unlike 6 years ago, no one can question the legitimacy of Landrieu's victory, I'm sorry to say.

People wrote off Landrieu's chances of re-election six years ago when she beat Woody Jenkins (whatever happened to him?) by 6,000 votes. She's increased her margin this time around by beating Terrell by 40,000 votes. People are still writing off her chances 6 years from now. Hey, people, looks to me like she's getting stronger. I've said it before and I'll say it again. Barring any major screw-up or scandal that sticks, this seat is hers for however long she wants it. Breaux is pretty much unbeatable. The GOP in LA is going to have to focus on winning those races it can, and that means state and local races, the governorship, and Congressional seats. Sometimes you have to pick your fights. The Rats that LA has sent to the Senate are playing very strong hands, IMO, for whatever reason.

[boomop1]

I said nothing about the represenatives being conservative, I said the country. The representatives are pompous jerks but I want my jerks to control congress. TERM LIMIT ALL OF THEM!!!!