Reading now The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq by Kenneth M. Pollack. From this reading, I conclude that Saddam's first priority is and has always been his personal security. Toward this end he devotes massive resources. The liklihoods seem quite low that his overthrow can be accomplished by an uprising of the Kurds or the Shi'ah in the south, or by coup or assassination.
In the U.N. Security Council, Russia, France and China, for various reasons, all oppose Saddam's overthrow by the U.S. military and they will use the appointment of U.N. inspectors and delaying tactics to prevent it.
Containment has fallen apart and deterrance won't work if he develops a nuclear capability, which he will with time.
The Arab nations in the area, on the other hand, would not oppose the U.S. or U.N. taking him down militarily IF such action were quick, decisive, overwhelming. They will not support continued sanctions, which have lost their teeth in any case.
The Arab nations in the area, on the other hand, would not oppose the U.S. or U.N. taking him down militarily IF such action were quick, decisive, overwhelming.
Absolutely! That is how it must be.