[marajade]

I thought 20% was overoptimistic myself... FNC is saying 10%... is the 10 percent difference enough for Terrell to lose?

[KQQL]

Terrell will get only 10% of the black vote which shows up to vote......

[laconic]

Say, for example that whites constitute 80 percnet of the voters and Terrell gets 60 percent of their vote: .60 x.80 = 48 percent. If blacks vote at 20 percent of the voters, and she gets only 10 percent of the black vote, this creates a tie with Landrieu (.10 x.20 = 2 percent, add 2 to 48 = 50 percent. If, on the other hand, Terrell gets 20 percent (verrry unlikely) of the 20 percent of voters who are black and stays at 60 percent of the 80 percent of voters who are white, then she wins because .20 x .20 = .04, added to .48 = 52 percent of the vote. This is why relative turnout is very important and why Terrell must score probably 63-65 percent of the white vote to win.