I think the "regime change" happens naturally as we approach the 2004 elections and a new Democratic standard-bearer appears. Until then, Clinton is likely to remain a consensus party leader, mostly because everyone understands that he's on the way out. No one who carries a very big bat in the Democratic party wants to mess with this right now, because doing so might upset the balance among the various 2004 contenders. You'll have Daschle opposing anybody who might help Kerry, Kerry opposing anybody who might help Gephardt, and so on. So they leave Clinton and McAuliffe in place; they are the devils we know. The only thing that could upset that is if Hillary starts making a move, in which case we will see a real hammer-and-tongs struggle over the DNC chairmanship. What's fascinating about this analysis is that it suggests that Clinton's "DLC" approach, while effective for him personally, has been a disaster for the party. Others will see that as well, and the conclusion they will draw from it is that the party should turn left, away from the DLC 'moderates' and toward the serious lefties like Pelosi. Most of us think that will result in a train wreck, but if you were a Democrat, what else could you think? Clinton's "moderation" sure hasn't worked, at least not for anyone except Clinton. The wild card in all this is Gore. If Gore had a brain in his head, he would offer to stand down from the 2004 contest and serve as DNC chairman. His big problem is that he wants to be something, but the tea leaves are spelling out "the ash heap for you" if he continues down his present path. He might be perceived as a suitable, and reasonably neutral, replacement for Clinton's stooge at the DNC. It is probably starting to dawn on Hillary that her strategy of waiting until 2008 is highly dependent on maintaining control of the party apparatus for that long, and that the intervention of a presidential candidate in 2004 could easily upset that. Whoever it turns out to be will get to name a new DNC chairman, will populate the place with his own stooges, and will most likely remain as the new head of the party even if the Democrats lose. That could put Hillary in a spot where she can't get back in, and I wonder if that isn't going to make her start thinking "it's now or never." |