On the plus side the malcontents over the immigration issue will still vote GOP just out of fear over a Dem winning. They can carp all they want but they're not going anywhere just like conservatives who cry about RINOs and the establishment. Also a plus for Bush and the GOP is that they have recognized the reality that we are a socialist welfare state and old fashioned conservatism is dead so they are forging a new centrist party. They will not try to out liberal the liberals they will paint the liberals and the old conservatives as out of the main stream. They will forward a pragmatic "workable" governance program and go after the undecided voters and centrist Dems. This could be a long term winning "stra-tee-gery". From my libertarian point of view it might not be so keen but from cold analytical perspective it's workable.
Especially if the GOP manages to make itself vulnerable to charges that they are anti-immigrant in general. They did that in 1994 in California. (I thought they recruited David Duke to design some of the campaign ads for Proposition 187.)
They're good at screwing things up or depressing the base.
Well, the base didn't sure didn't show up in 2000. The unappeasables did their worst, so they'd better get used to the idea that anything they get from now on is a freebie, because Bush doesn't owe them a damn thing.
Next if the war goes wrong somehow or a major economic downturn occurs the GOP will be wiped out.
Reread the article--the war and the economy are closely interlinked.
Bush has communicated quite clearly that this is going to be a long war, not a Clintonesque "Wag the Dog." And the Democrats have gone out of their way to make themselves look like abject idiots on the subject. One major disaster in the war on terror will not grant them instant credibility.