C.I.A. Hunts Iraq Tie to Soviet Smallpox(Do You want To Sleep Well Tonight? ....Dont Read)

Aren't we ready to combat the anthrax attacks by now, with Cipro and what not rather than the semi-dangerous anthrax vaccine?

It's unlikely, I think, that the anthrax used in a real attack would be susceptible to antibiotics -- all you'd need would be a $500 plasmid transformation kit to build in antibiotic resistance, and I think Saddam would pop for that. I bought sixty-day supplies of Doxy and Cipro almost a year ago, but I'm not optimistic they will do much good if the balloon goes up. The anthrax in the mailings was most likely left antibiotic-susceptible to facilitate handling, as the sleepers who sent it obviously weren't operating in suicide mode. You'll recall that the letters referred rather sardonically to the antibiotic-susceptible status of the samples ("TAKE PENACILIN NOW.") The threats were designed by a sophisticated bioweaponeer in the full knowledge that they would be interpreted by a sophisticated bioweaponeer. The engineering of antibiotic resistance is such a routine laboratory practice that there would be no premium on demonstrating such a capability, especially if it could lead to accidental exposure of the entire plot through infection of one of the participants.

That is not the only issue. Even for an antibiotic-susceptible strain, you have to hit early to have a hope of salvaging someone who's breathed a lethal dose. Like, maybe within the first 24 hours. If we take the NYC subway scenario, that means delivering medical care to four million people in the space of 24 hours. BTW, all those people are going to think -- and they would be right to think -- that every hour that passes reduces their chances of pulling through. It's going to be a dog-eat-dog situation after people get wind that there's been a mass release.

The new anthrax vaccine which the government has just contracted VaxGen to develop will be useable post-exposure. Even if we have more confidence in this vaccine than the controversial Army vaccine, that's the only way it's going to be used, I think: I cannot see mass advance vaccinations of the general public using anything that's as new and untried as this vaccine. I don't know what the time window for administering the vaccine after exposure will be. Hopefully, it will be better than for antibiotics. The most important thing is that the vaccine should work against all anthrax bacteria, regardless of whether they have been transformed with resistance plasmids or not.

So, we have a ways to go before we can seriously hope to blunt the threat presented in the Daschle letter. Right now, we'd be dead in the water, which is why you can be quite certain that a head-to-head with Saddam is not imminent. We need to get the new vaccine through safety -- that's scheduled to occur around the end of next year. We need to produce a massive stockpile of the vaccine. The VaxGen contract envisages an initial buy of 25 million doses, enough to treat about eight million possible victims (it's a three-dose course). But, in reality, I don't think that's going to be nearly enough. An NYC subway release by a single sleeper would necessitate treating four million people immediately. Several, simultaneous attacks on multiple US and allied cities could easily up that into the tens of millions of people requiring immediate treatment. Plus, if the anthrax vaccine is not pre-positioned, that could involve an enormous death toll just due to the delay in transit getting the vaccine to the targeted population centers. Really, I think they're going to have to go the whole whack, as they have already done with the smallpox vaccine -- produce enough stock to supply every pharmacy in the Western world with treatment for every person in the Western world. We're probably talking about over a billion doses of vaccine (investors take note -- there might be an opportunity here!)

I do not know if the new vaccine will have to be injected -- my guess is it would, but I'm not sure. If so, that could make timely mass post-attack distribution especially difficult logistically, although I imagine this could be handled with proper advance planning. I read that there has been a program in place since the anthrax scare to train all medical care providers in the dispensation of treatment following a biowar attack, so much of the groundwork may already have been done. Much more of the infrastructure will be put in place as a result of the the new "smallpox" civil defense efforts. In fact, one of the benefits of not pre-vaccinating everyone for smallpox is that it necessitates putting in place a new, post-attack rapid vaccination infrastructure. That may be part of the whole smallpox-as-stalking-horse-for-the-unmentionable-A-word aspect of this thing.

The other major parts of a civil defense against anthrax that I see as being needed are (a) production of low-cost anthrax detectors and (b) mass decontamination technology. I've seen a number of reports of technical progress in these two areas over the past year, although I think we're still a ways from a solution to either problem.

My guess is we're looking at 2004 before we can even hope to blunt this threat. It could be quite a bit longer than that. OTOH, I'd be surprised if it takes longer than five years to practically neutralize this specific threat, given that we are now under the gun. Smallpox is a done deal, already, so I'm not too worried about that. Genetically-engineered stuff -- smallpox, anthrax, or anything else -- is a worrying long-term concern, but I very much doubt if Saddam is that sophisticated. Still, another good reason to have the inspectors in there, even if they aren't going to do much in terms of finding his existing arsenal.

Your posts are top shelf by the way.

Thank you. I do my best to shed more light than heat.

No. I guess I would have to provisionally exempt the killing of Sun photo editor Bob Stevens from my characterization, although we don't really know what the letter he received said. It is conceivable that that was another accident. Actually, the authorities almost certainly do know what the letter said -- if you read between the lines of the October CDC report on the subject, it's hard to conclude otherwise -- but for some reason they don't feel comfortable sharing that information with us.

That may be part of the whole smallpox-as-stalking-horse-for-the-unmentionable-A-word aspect of this thing.

That's been my hunch all along too. Thanks again for another, most informative posting.

Caught a few minutes of Chris Matthews last night, interviewing American Jihad author Steve Emerson and a Vanity Fair reporter named David Rose. Rose has a CIA contact that he says has leaked to him information about Iraq/al-Qaeda connections. Apparently the Prague meeting wasn't the only contact between the 9/11 squad and Iraqi intelligence.

The funny part is, Rose mentioned that Atta could have been slipped a vial of anthrax in Prague. Matthews gets all huffy and says, "That's the first time I've heard anyone suggest that." He seemed genuinely caught off guard by the possibility that Saddam could be connected to the anthrax attack. Unbelievable how uninformed some of the media are about what could really be going on.

I don't think the pressies are that uninformed. I think one of their favorite methods is to feign ignorance.

Could be. I suppose its also possible that someone like Matthews is so busy with the daily grind of a television show that he doesn't have as much time to simply read and reflect on news and analysis as can someone who is not "in the business."

Speaking for myself, and maybe others, anthrax seems less scary than before 9/11. Maybe it's the alieness or power of the name of the germ, I didn't imagine it was relatively easy to treat.

Chris Matthews still hoping it's Hatfill, perhaps.

Of course Iraq has connections with AQ. Maybe not palsy-walsy, but what govt. in the region doesn't in some form?

The Great Satan had an interesting post on a recent smallpox thread about how easy it would be to produce anti-biotic-resistent anthrax. Apparently child's play compared to what was done already to weaponize the anthrax used last fall. Which was pretty nasty even though it was meant as a warning, not to induce death. Imagine a release of an treatment-resistent strain of anthrax in a public place with no "here I am" letter to tip people off. Thousands dead before they even begin the now-forgotten Cipro and nasal-swab routine.

Thanks for the heads up!

bump

Here's my take on the Russian Smallpox and Saddam situation.

If Saddam has the very dangerous Russian strain of smallpox (He probably does) he may not plan to use it on the battle field in his own country. The way I see all this is, Saddam hates the American people and everything we stand for. He even promised in the days of Desert Strom when we kicked his ass back then that one day he would even up the score with the US.

I truly believe that Saddam is well prepared to do as much damaged to the USA as he can when the time comes. I think the time is very near now! I believe that Saddam has his people already hear in the USA waiting for his word to let us have it, and it could very well be much more then just smallpox!

Some may say, no way, how could he have anything in our country to hurt us with. Well, have you thought about our BOARDERS, how they are still wide open for smugglers to get through with no problems?

Think about it. Truck loads of drugs come through our boarders every day. I don't think it would take a very large container of pure smallpox to kill every single person in the USA. It probably is already here and the terrorists are waiting for the word to turn it loose on us.
If Saddam has even 1/2 of a brain then he is well prepared to hurt us dearly.

So now we understand that it would be very simple for someone to get the smallpox strain into our country, Right?

I don't think it's a matter of "if" Saddam is going to attack us on USA soil it's a matter of "when"

My answer to this is, as soon as we attack Iraq then Saddam will tell his people to let us have it! The way Saddam sees it is that he is a "dead duck", he will take down as many Americans as he can when he goes down.
He has had 11 years to prepare for this day!

If I have been informed correctly, this Russian form of Smallpox has NO vaccination! The Smallpox vaccinations the US government has on hand is for the old world (natural) smallpox strain. It won't do us any good for the Russian hi-tech smallpox strain. I also understand that this Russian strain is very deadly and can be passed around much more easily then the old smallpox strain and that the death rate from exposure to it is very high. Without an adequate vaccination or cure for it then WE ARE SCREWED!

In short, when we attack Iraq you had better hang onto your shorts because we are going to be facing a very, very dangerous situation here on our own home turf!!

Does anyone else find it a bit strange that with all the talk in the media about smallpox and vaccinations for it that not ONE WORD has been spoken about how we should prepare for an outbreak of it or how we should protect ourselves and families from spreading it around. Or how to keep from getting it..not one word has been said on this. I think our Gov. has very little they can offer us. Basically they tell us that they have no power stop terrorists attacks on us. I guess we should just sit back and place our heads firmly between our legs and kiss our asses GOOD BY!

My wife and I have bought a insurance policy. We have stocked up very well on dried foods and such. (Beans rice dried fruit etc.) Enough to hold out for at least 6 months. I recommend that everyone do this! Since our Government won't tell us how to prepare for an attack on us then I will!

Keep in mind, "You can't eat money" So buy NON-perishable Foods!!

There is lots of info. on the internet about all this stuff, you would be well advised to learn as much as you can.

Some may say I'm nuts.......Some may say Saddam is NUTS...I think most of you know who the truly nutty one is! Better safe then sorry my friends.

The scenario you depict is quite possible, if not probable.

Even if Sadaam is not planning to do this, the tactic will be employed in future...Probably within 20 years...Its as inevitable as the long bow.....

It won't be the end of the world, tho...People are very good at adaptation...I can't imagine more than a couple million will die...