A recovery with no jobs Commentary: Falling claims don't mean the worst is over

CBS Marketwatch ^ | 12/3 | Kellner

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IRWIN KELLNER

A recovery with no jobs
Commentary: Falling claims don't mean the worst is over

By Dr. Irwin Kellner, CBS MarketWatch.com Last Update: 8:30 AM ET Dec. 3, 2002

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Just because jobless claims are trending lower, it doesn't mean that the worst is over for the U.S. economy -- or for those who are already unemployed.

Fewer people may be losing their jobs these days -- but fewer people are finding them, too. As a consequence, the average duration of unemployment is now at its highest level in over eight years.

Thirty-six percent of those officially counted as unemployed have been without a job for 15 weeks or more. You have to go back to recession year 1991 to find a bigger percentage.

Those without work 27 weeks or more are also at eight-year highs when taken as a percentage of the unemployed. And while this figure always lags behind the turn in the economy, their numbers have increased much faster this time than they did following the end of the previous recession, back in 1991 and 1992.

We are now at the point in the business cycle where, if the economy is, indeed, recovering, employment should be in a solid upturn. Instead, employment has zigzagged all this year, rising in some months but falling in others.

As a result, payrolls are slimmer than they were this time last year as well as the year before. Call it a jobless recovery.

Business may be proud of the fact that it is adjusting its workforce to reflect the new reality of slow growth, but who do you think is responsible for this sluggishness in the first place?

By being so quick to fire and so slow to hire Corporate America is shooting itself in the foot, then running to Washington to look for help.

The Business Roundtable, a group of chief executives of the nation's largest firms, recently called for the president and the Congress to enact a $300 billion tax cut. And they want it the sooner the better.

Although the economy could use a dollop of fiscal stimulus to supplement monetary policy (see my column of Nov. 1), the likelihood of getting a timely push from Washington is fading like the winter sun.

Just the other day, Congress failed to extend unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed. This means that many people will lose their benefits just as the bills roll in for their holiday shopping.

It seems like Congress is vying with Corporate America to see who is the bigger Scrooge.Dr. Irwin Kellner, chief economist for CBS.MarketWatch.com, is the Weller professor of economics at Hofstra University.

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[chit*chat]

You have no idea what situations I've been in.

You are correct.

I work for an aerospace company, trying to place people before they 'went out the door'. Not one of them viewed unemployment as a 'windfall' or a 'golden opportunity' to sit on their laurels. I associate with people of a higher work ethic and assume others hold the same values unless I observe differently.

[txhurl]

Jes, but ju gonna keep up the mortgage, car payment(s), school tuition, consumer debt, etc. on $350/wk when you used to make $950/wk?

Come on, now, think about numbers.

[Mini-14]

When I say that there is no work, my assumption is that you have looked nationwide (no sarcasm intended). It took me eight months to find employment after the last layoff. I was looking nationwide.

[stubernx98]

The last time I was unemployed, I started my own company. Since then I have started three companies, and haven't been unemployed since. Of course, I have to work my ass off so my employees won't become un employed. The companies I started, which have partners, the owners are the last to get paid. It's in the partnership agreements.

[txhurl]

Whatever.

[Mini-14]

"Just looking at Monster and Dice I see that Florida (central and west coast) is starting to get hot again. "

If your statements are true, then salaries should be rising. In Texas, salaries have fallen through the floor for software development people. Maximum salaries for experienced personnel are down to the low 30s (per year).

[Mini-14]

It appears we have a jerk in our midst.

[mikeb704]

Looking for a job can be tough work

[txhurl]

He'll understand someday.... Austin s/w and h/w market is just terrible, too.

[AmusedBystander]

You can always find a job. ALWAYS.

I agree with you on this one. I did a quick search for engineering jobs on the federal job site and found over 600 openings, with thousands more across the spectrum of occupations. These pay fairly well and with good benefits.

[UnBlinkingEye]

Software development ... don't know where you are by my company's hiring senior java developers, project managers, content developers, etc

I'm in Washington State, I have led three projects with 5-15 person teams. My background is mainly in Windows applications using C++, MFC, ActiveX, etc. I've got Java installed on one of my systems and have built a few demo apps. Since I've been unemployed I have read some books and studied XML, SQL, SOAP, web services, but it's hard to know where to focus, maybe .NET will be the next hot area.

I have sent resumes nationwide, I'm not familiar with Hanford, but I like Newport Beach and the coast.

[sarasmom]

"Regardless of the economy, any one who wants to work can work. Period."

I almost agree with you , about 95%.

I am loosely involved in hiring decisions, and I rarely use my veto power, but a lot of times I can spot an arrogant or whiney potential employee at the first or second interview.

My number one hint to all jobseekers-Dont assume the "receptionist" or "warehouseman" is not a valued and respected member of the company.Never assume the first employee you see is stupid.She/He just may be the HR supervisor or even the CEO,filling in.

I am constantly amused by the look of panic when an arrogant applicant comes in for a second interview, and there I sit,ready with my questions.The boss does not usually pull me from my position unless he is seriously considering a new hire.LOL!

[RLK]

I agree with you on this one. I did a quick search for engineering jobs on the federal job site and found over 600 openings, with thousands more across the spectrum of occupations. These pay fairly well and with good benefits.

----------------------

How many of these positions did you apply for and get?

[Mortimer Snavely]

"You can always find a job. ALWAYS. "

This is true. I spent about twelve years overseas teaching English. The Japanese will hire anyone with a pulse, a passport from an English speaking country, and a four year degree. The choice boils down to teaching "This is a pen" to non English speakers and "Would you like to try our catch of the day?" to one's countrymen. This, by the way, hardly indicates a healthy economy.