Bin Laden tape a fake, Swiss lab says

The Toronto Star (Canada) ^ | Nov. 28, 2002. 06:23 PM | AP

[hoosiermama]

a lot of Democrats out there who think conservatives are a bigger threat than Al Qaeda.......But they are only repeating what they hear in the media.....

It is to our advantage to NOT let the enemy know the level of our technical sophistication. Maybe they were simply testing us. We play dumb (inept), but keep right on intercepting and identifying voice communications. Didn't we break the Japanese code years before it was told. Some things MUST be kept secret to be effective.

[copycat]

The rush to declare this tape "authentic" was reminiscent of the rush to declare the crash of Flight 587, Jamaica, Queens, as an accident.

Too confident, too soon, with too little facts. Tape could be a sibling trained to imitate, or synthetic.

A synthetic tape poses the question of assistance from a more highly technological ally.

[anniegetyourgun]

Good...maybe I can reclaim my winnings in the FR Binny-be-dead pool. I still say he died 12/18/01.

[Media Insurgent]

Your point about not letting them know our technical capabilities is well taken. I believe that the full extent of Allied codebreaking during WWII was not revealed to the public until the 70s.

I don't think the idea that our government is deliberately playing dumb, and the idea that there was a political motivation for the tape being released when it was are mutually exclusive. It's completely plausible that a phony tape was released by Al Jazeera with the intent of embarassing Bush before the election. At that point the administration may have deemed it useful to play dumb on its authenticity. Of course, that's all pure speculation on my part. I have no way of knowing either way and wouldn't be shocked by anything at this point. The only thing that made me suspicious at the time is that it was an audio tape and not a video tape. That seems like a really weak proof-of-life statement to me.

[Angelus Errare]

"Sorry, but implying that every atrocity perpetrated worldwide by the one-billion odd members of the Religion of Peace is being secretly controlled by a deceased Saudi amateur video producer does nothing for the credibility of your case."

Indeed. I would say that your view is incredibly triumphalist and contradicts a vast body of evidence that has been posted on this forum and others. Destro, just to name one individual, has posted literally megabytes worth of information on the al-Qaeda links to the fighting in the Balkans and Chechnya. The ties to al-Qaeda and the fighting Algeria, Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan, Kashmir, East Timor, the Southern Philippines, ect., are likewise well known. You can find all of the credible evidence you need in 5 minutes using Google.

"In other words, that you're a gullible fool with the mentality of a supermarket tabloid reader."

Ad hominem is gonna get you nowhere, buddy. You read any of the terrorism experts (Emerson, Gunaratna, Pipes, ect.) and they'll tell you what I just said. Guess they're all gullible fools, huh?

"Go tell the Spartans. Your hero is dead. Deal with it."

Nice line. Now let's see some evidence to back it up. Either put up or shut up.

[rs79bm]

Hmmm .... I think the Gov't is playing a dirty little trick on us. As we've all said, he's long gone.

[Smogger]

He died in a cave at Tora Bora like we all presumed.

ROTFLMFAO!!

French television says its true. So it must be...

BAHAHAHAAH!!!

This is going to be rich. Conservative tin-foilers coming out of the woodwork to support the French TV and the Swiss over the collective intellegence agencies of the US, Russia, Israel, and British. I can hardly wait!

[Smogger]

Apparently some people here don't share that opinion, and they come up with rationalizations to support that decision. The scary thing is that they have no idea how similar Bush and Clinton would be if any of these half-baked scenarios are true

Your well reasoned arguemnents are wasted on the on the pollyannish "Laden is dead" crowd who never let logic or reason get in the way of a good conspiracy. They are determined that Bin Laden is dead and the world's intellegence communities are collectively conspiring to conceal the truth in order to aid US in prosocuting the WOT.

Nevermind that it makes Bush a liar...

Nevermind that many of the countries that have presumably authenticated that tape are no great allies in the WOT. (France, China, Germany)

Who needs logic or reason when you have "gut feelings" anyhow?

[Smogger]

Paranoid? I'll concede your point to a degree. We all know what the mainstream media thinks about us, and that many of them think we're a bigger threat than Al Qaeda. That can't help but color our thinking. But you cannot deny that they have pulled similar crap countless times in the past, loudly trumpeting a bogus story that they think will damage Republicans, only to quietly pull it later on when the damage has already been done or when it's no longer useful.

Furthermore, the Arab leaders and Al Jazeera certainly knew about the election, and it's not hard to figure out who they were rooting for.

So the Bin Laden tape was a attempt by Al Jazeera to influence the results of the mid-term elections?

IC

It's this type of politicizing of the WOT that's gonna get us all killed. Everything is NOT about the elections.

[Angelus Errare]

"Your well reasoned arguemnents are wasted on the on the pollyannish 'Laden is dead' crowd who never let logic or reason get in the way of a good conspiracy. They are determined that Bin Laden is dead and the world's intellegence communities are collectively conspiring to conceal the truth in order to aid US in prosocuting the WOT."

So I've noticed. I just love the fact that what the Europeans say is complete garbage until they happen to voice something that these people like until such time as they say something that they want to hear.

Of course, I could be wrong that this could all be the result of a massive plot between the CIA, the Trilateral Commission, and the Freemasons. Or maybe the CIA, Trilateral Commission, and the International Freemason Bankers, the ones with the black helicopters.

The problem is that in the case of an actual conspiracy, there are likely two outcomes. Either the machination is so well-hidden that nobody (including FR) knows about it or it's so blatantly transparent that any fool with half a brain can see through it. Examples of this can be the media's villainization of Ken Starr or all of that "isolated incident" crap after Mr. Hadayet's July 4 shooting spree at the El Al ticket counter.

"Nevermind that it makes Bush a liar..."

What really disturbs me is that most of this crowd seems to have no problem believing that Bush has lied through his teeth to the American people and yet they STILL see no problem supporting him. Situational ethics are great, aren't they?

[Angelus Errare]

"So the Bin Laden tape was a attempt by Al Jazeera to influence the results of the mid-term elections?"

No, no, no, you're missing the point. The Bush administration had the tape forged THEMSELVES (with not one person aware of it leaking the info to the press) and then gave it to al-Jazeera (guess this had to be in the works for quite awhile, considering the guy who gave the tape to the reporter was a well-known contact inside al-Qaeda) with the intention of it being released and authenticated (though I believe that the actual release of the tape took place AFTER the elections, I know the authentification of it certainly did) in order to give Bush administration a boost.

One of the funniest points about the whole "Bush knows that Osama is dead and we're keeping him alive to justify the War on Terror" line of thought is that while it was marginally plausible when the Democrats were running the Senate, this is no longer the case. With his party in power, Bush can basically get a blank check from the Congress to take any military action he needs to ensure US security. In addition, declaring that the US had killed bin Laden would be the best way for Bush to get re-elected in 2004 and completely destroy his various critics (Gore, Daschle, Hillary, Kerry, ect.). It is politically stupid at this point for him not to do so, so why hasn't he?

These are some of the numerous wholes in logic that are the bane of all conspiracy theories. Though I think that many of these people are going to be caught between their support for President Bush and their own triumphalism if he comes out and says that the Swiss are full of it within the next several days.

[pfflier]

Bush and company say the tape is the real Bin Laden.

Not exactly, they said they couldn't conclude that it was or wasn't Bin Laden. The Swiss say it definitely isn't.

[Smogger]

These are some of the numerous wholes in logic that are the bane of all conspiracy theories. Though I think that many of these people are going to be caught between their support for President Bush and their own triumphalism if he comes out and says that the Swiss are full of it within the next several days.

It's doubtful that Bush or the US intellegence community would dignify the Swiss or the French televion show that commissioned the analysis with a reaction. I mean that would akin to the administration reacting to something printed in the Weekly World News.

[Smogger]

Not exactly, they said they couldn't conclude that it was or wasn't Bin Laden. The Swiss say it definitely isn't.

Actually, they said they were 95% certain it is Bin Laden on the tape, but they couldn't be 100% certain because of the tape's poor quality.

[Angelus Errare]

Here's the relevant parts of the BBC version of the story:

Researchers in Switzerland have questioned the authenticity of the recent audio recording attributed to Osama Bin Laden.

A team from the Lausanne-based Dalle Molle Institute for Perceptual Artificial Intelligence, Idiap, said it was 95% certain the tape does not feature the voice of the al-Qaeda leader.

US intelligence officials have said they believe the recording - broadcast on the Arabic al-Jazeera television channel earlier this month - was almost certainly that of Osama Bin Laden.

If verified, it would provide the first evidence in a year that Bin Laden survived the American-led bombing campaign in Afghanistan.

Prudence

The review of the tape was commissioned by France-2 television and its findings were presented by the institute's director, Professor Herve Bourlard.

"It could be an impostor," said one of Mr Bourlard's colleagues at Idiap, Samy Bengio, quoted by the French news agency AFP.

He said the system they had used was difficult to tamper with - the al-Jazeera tape was sufficiently different from other Bin Laden recordings as to raise doubts.


So let me get this straight. This was done by French TV (and we all know what good allies the French are) and all I'm hearing them say is that it COULD (not that it IS) an impostor and that he has doubts about the tape's authenticity. That isn't quite the same as the instant "it's a fake" that's been squawked throughout this thread.

[Angelus Errare]

More to the point, I do not honestly see how there can be that wide a degree of disparity between the US government analysis of the tape and those of a private institution.

To be fair, though, I do think that the White House will comment on the Swiss institute's findings, either to point out flaws in their methodology or to say that the US will reexamine the tape in light of the new findings.

[Grampa Dave]

I'm sure that he will be born again and again and again. The lying mediots who control the Arab media and left wing America media need this story to attack GW and cause worry.

In a year after becoming parts and pieces in Toro Boro, he has been reborn and sighted more times than Elvis has in decades.

[Smogger]

The lying mediots who control the Arab media and left wing America media need this story to attack GW and cause worry

Ah! A different take.

It's left-wing media and Al Jazeera who are behind this deception in order to paint the WOT as a failure!

Hmmmmm...

I'm sorry Granpa, but your conspiracy runs completely afoul of the widely held FR belief that the OBL tape was fabricated by GWB in order to perpetuate the WOT!

I'm sorry... but thank you for playing..

[FreedomCalls]

Actually, they said they were 95% certain it is Bin Laden on the tape, but they couldn't be 100% certain because of the tape's poor quality.

Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, in an interview with Steve Croft, Infinity CBS Radio Connect, Thursday, November 14, 2002:

Kroft: Mr. Secretary, what kind of significance do you place on this latest audio tape that was played on Al-Jazeera, allegedly from Osama bin Laden?

Rumsfeld: I'm open-minded on it. I don't know if he's alive or dead. I suspect if he were alive and healthy he would be doing video tapes, which seems to be his preference.

[The Great Satan]

Nice line. Now let's see some evidence to back it up. Either put up or shut up.

Where is your hero? I think you're the one who needs to put up. Face it, your hero is dead, dead, dead. Really, most sincerely dead. He's snuffed it, kicked the bucket, gone on to the next life. I know that must be heart-breaking for you, especially after you talked up this phony tape all last week, but what can you do? These are the breaks. That's the way the way the cookie crumbles. Get used to it.