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Interesting you should mention it. Given you assumptions, since the economic boom did not suddenly arise in two weeks, I would expect Bush to have started 15 points down instead of up. The people were desperate to vote against Gore. As it was, they perceived equality between the candidates and stayed home in disgust. Lit's see what kind of psychobabble you can come up with to deal with that.
You make a great deal of where Bush started. What's important is where he finished. As President of the United States.
It was close, yes. The American people did stay home, largely, as they do every election.
But, 2002 dispelled the myth that the American people have doubts about George W. Bush. He won that election for the GOP.