[Bacons Rebellion]

I would agree with you that the establishment of a democracy in Iraq will probably lead to the downfall of the House of Saud.

What I am considerably less certain about is whether representative government or democracy in the Islamic world is going to bring about conditions that will be favorable to the United States. I suppose that our best hope is that the result of such a democratization of the Middle East would lead to the development of more secular and less Islamic states. That, however, seems more of a hope than a certainty.

[truth_seeker]

"What I am considerably less certain about is whether representative government or democracy in the Islamic world is going to bring about conditions that will be favorable to the United States."

Think of mullah dictatorship Iran. Supposedly they have elections. But the policies voted by the elected representatives, can be vetoed, by the mullahs.

This is how it works 23 years after the revolution. The citizenry there wants change.

So in the short term, the arab nations might turn to an islamic dictatorship (Iran, Afghanistan) but after some experience, they MAY desire something better.

Two key words are MAY, for I no longer assume that these people are rational.

Other key word is desire. They might not have the commitment to change. Call it lack of moral underpinnings, cowardice, complacency, you pick a word. Probably a lot of ignorance (low literacy).

[powderhorn]

I would agree with you that the establishment of a democracy in Iraq will probably lead to the downfall of the House of Saud. What I am considerably less certain about is whether representative government or democracy in the Islamic world is going to bring about conditions that will be favorable to the United States.

Ah, some clarity.

Yes, a successful democracy is a product of a successful culture. With the 12th century as the predominant cultural background throughout the mid east, it is not likely that any stable trade relations will develop for quite some time.

And even if they do evolve into normal, civilized states, it doesn't mean that they would take a friendly view of the US.