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Well, assuming your math takes into account the RECENT history or 'experience' rating of the helicopter failures. These aren't strictly average linear relations...as some stingy politicians may ignorantly assert (note, these same shrill Lib pols don't drive old cars...)

Yes, my projections are bunk. You have to control by type of crash - pilot error, weather conditions, equipment failure.

I haven't been able to locate a chart showing when and why the aircraft crashed so I could plot the results. They appeared to have only one crash for 2001. On the other hand, they were having problems with flameouts and broken drive shafts in 1999.

If I were speculating, I would guess that they had several crashes on the front end as they were introducing the type, fewer crashes as the pilots became familiar with the type, and then increasing crashes in recent years due to maintenence failure. If they are properly inspecting and maintaining, the operating costs should be going up, but the crash rate should not be increasing that much.