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In my opinion, the economy is no longer the factor it once was in deciding elections. Bush won in 2000 despite a roaring economy, and Bush won in 2002 despite a sputtering economy. While still important, what really matters is the culture.

Republicans have put themselves in a position of cultural leadership. That is, they reflect a moral viewpoint that most Americans seem to be comfortable with. Fewer abortions (the life issue was very big in the last election though of course under the radar), opposed to the radical homosexual agenda, pro-self defense, pro-national defense, pro-religious freedom, pro-Boy Scout, and in general against the sort of warmed-over anti-Americanism that people have started to see in the Democratic Party.

America is still divided, but the old New Deal coalitions are fading away. Fewer rich are voting Republican, and fewer poor are voting Democrat. A hot economy will not guarantee a Bush win in 2004 - but being pereceived as being on the right side of the culture wars will.

Bush won in 2000 despite a roaring economy, and Bush won in 2002 despite a sputtering economy.

The economy in Nov. 2000 wasn't exactly roaring. The government statistics and the media may still have been denying that we were going into a recession, but I think most people realized that the economy at that point was sputtering. That may have made the difference in the presidential election.