PCPO Poll of Palestinians - November 6-10,2002

IMRA ^ | November 12, 2002

[SJackson]

A poll carried out by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) and prepared by President Dr. Nabil Kukali. Poll no. 105 Date: 12 Nov. 2002

45.3% support the continuation of suicidal attacks

45.1% support to varying degrees the American "Road Plan"

45.5% believe that no Palestinian leader other than Arafat can currently sign a peace treaty with Israel.

50.4% support the continuation of the Intifada.

47.9% support to varying degrees the Palestine Legislative Council(PLC's) approval of the new government

64.9% believe to varying degrees that the appointment of Shaul Mofaz as the Defense Minister of Israel will aggravate the political situation.

From the Public Relations Office:

A poll recently conducted by the PCPO and prepared by Dr.Nabil Kukali included a random sample of 1000 adults, 18 years and older, from the West Bank including East Jerusalem.

The poll reveals that 45.1% of Palestinians supports to varying degrees the American plan "ROAD MAP" as perceived by President Bush to achieve peace in the region, while 42.2% oppose to varying degrees this plan, and 12.8% express no opinion.

When asked, "do you or not believe that there would be a Palestinian leader other than Arafat that can currently sign a peace treaty with Israel? 45.5% give a negative answer; while 26.6% give a positive answer, and 27.8% say, "do not know"

President of the PCPO, Dr. Nabil Kukali, stated that the poll took place November 6-10,2002 and the average age of the respondents was 31.92 years, and the margin of errors was +/-3.1 percent points.

Director of Public Relations at the PCPO, Dr. Walid Shomaly, said that the percentage of female respondents was 50.8%, while that of the male ones was 49.2%.

Dr. Shomaly also stated that the respondents location of residence was as follows: 53.8% city, 34.5% village, 11.7% refugee camp. He pointed out to the average size of respondents' families that was 7.1 persons, and the average number of schooling years that was 11.9 years.

Dr. Shomaly said that results of the poll were as follows:

1. Do you believe that the appointment of Shaul Mofaz as the Defense Minister of Israel would or not aggravate the political situation?

1.would aggravate 48.5%

2. Would somewhat aggravate 16.4%

3. Would not aggravate 20.8%

4. Do not know 14.3%

2. Based on President Bush's perception of peace in the region, an American working plan by the name of the "Road Plan" was recently announced. The plan includes the following stages:

1. First stage: a) Stopping violence between Israelis and the Palestinians before the impending elections in January 2003.

b) Carrying out reformations, holding elections, and amending the Palestinian constitution.

c) Designating a Palestinian Prime Minister.

2. Second Stage: Establishing a Palestinian state with temporary borders in 2003 and complete the reformation process.

3. Third stage: Holding negotiations to discuss the final and fixed borders of the Palestinian State, and other issues like refugees, Jerusalem, water. These problems should be solved by the year 2005.

Do you Strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, strongly oppose this plan:

1. Strongly support 20.7%

2. Somewhat support 24.4%

3. Somewhat oppose 14.3%

4. Strongly oppose 27.9%

5. No opinion 12.7%

3. Head of Israeli State Moshe Katsav met Lately with Prime Minister Sharon in his Office. The latter told him that elections are inevitable after the extreme right refused to join the government.

Do you believe that holding early elections and a change in the Israeli Government?

1. Will be in favor of the peace process 7.2%

2. Will be against the peace process 23.7%

3. They will not make a difference 50.5%

4. No opinion/ Don not know 18.6%

4. What does the Intifada mean to you?

1. Holding demonstrations, sit-ins, and marches. 12.9%

2. Carrying out suicide attacks inside Israel 25.5%

3. Carrying out military attacks against Israeli soldiers. 36.0%

4. No opinion/ refuse to answer 25.6%

5. What do you except from the Intifada to achieve after 25 months of its inception?

1. A Palestinian State on the whole Gaza Strip, and West Bank with East Jerusalem as its capital . 18.1%

2. A Palestinian State on parts of Gaza Strip, the West Bank, including certain neighborhoods in East Jerusalem. 13.2%

3. Full autonomy 15.6%

4. do not except anything 35.7%

5. do not know 17.4%

6. Do you support or oppose PLC's approval of on the new government introduced by Yasser Arafat?

1. Strongly support 21.3%

2. Somewhat support 26.6%

3. Somewhat oppose 15.2%

4. Strongly oppose 20.7%

5. Do not know 16.2%

7. Do you or not believe that there could be another Palestinian leader that can currently sign a peace treaty with Israel?

1. Yes 26.6%

2. No 45.5%

3. Do not know 27.8%

8. Some people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip support suicidal attacks in Israel, while others support a halt to such attacks now. Which is closer to your opinion:

1. Such attacks must halt 29.8%

2. Such attacks must continue 45.3%

3. Refuse to answer / do not know 24.9%

9. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the current Israeli - Palestinian security coordination?

1. Strongly support 10.8%

2. Somewhat support 26.4%

3. Somewhat oppose 13.8%

4. Strongly oppose 32.5%

5. No opinion 16.5%

10. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the notion that says that the political process (i.e. peace process) is the best thing we can get under current conditions (i.e. international changes):

1. Strongly support 16.2%

2. Somewhat support 24.0%

3. Somewhat oppose 13.1%

4. Strongly oppose 28.1%

5. Do not know 18.6%

11. Some people in the West Bank and Gaza Strip support the continuation of the Intifada, while others call for a halt to it which of these two opinions is closer to yours?

1. Continuation of the Intifada 50.4%

2. Halting the Intifada 34.2%

3. Do not know / refuse to answer 15.4%

12. In the elections for Presidency and for Palestine Legislative Council(PLC) that were held in 1996, the late Samiha Khalil( was the only rival of Yasser Arafat for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority(PA). If elections were being held today, who would you think be his strongest rival for presidency? Open question: 1.Do not know 74.6% 11.Ahmad Qrei' 1.2% 21.Nabil Amro 0.2% 2. Saeb Ireikat 3.3% 12.Jibreel Rjoub 0.8% 22.Abdallah Shami 0.2% 3.Marwan Barghouthi 3.2% 13.Yasser Abed Rabbo 0.8% 23.Ahmad Tibi 0.2% 4.Mustafa Barghouti 2.1% 14.Nabil Abu Rdeineh 0.5% 24.Ali Jarbawi 0.1% 5.Ahmad Yaseen 2.0% 15.Nayef Hawatmeh 0.4% 25.George Habash 0.1% 6.Abu Mazen 2.0% 16.Mohammad Dahlan 0.4% 26.Hussam Khader 0.1% 7.Hanan Ashrawi 1.8% 17.Nabil Sha'th 0.2% 27.Abdel Rahim Mallouh 0.1% 8.Farouq Qaddoumi 1.8% 18.Ismail Abu Shanab 0.2% 28.Mahmoud Darwish 0.1% 9.Abdel Aziz Rantisi 1.5% 19.Ahmad Sa'adat 0.2% 29.Mahmoud Zahhar 0.1% 10.Haider Abdel Shaifi 1.5% 20.Abdel Sattar Qassim 0.2% 30.Ghassan Khatib 0.1%

Contact Persons: Dr. Nabil Kukali , Dr. Walid Shomaly Tel: 02 2774846 , Fax: 02 277 4892 Mobile: 067 216643/052801653 055576290 Email: kukali@p-ol.com

[kregger]

I believe the last poll released on this showed the number of Palestinians supporting suicide bombing to be much higher, around 65%...