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I like Fitzgerald too. Saying who I want to win is very different than saying who I think will win. Incumbency will help. The trend of the state will hurt. The distance he can put between himself and the corruption in the state Republicans will help. Trying to run without the support of the state party will hurt-- but obviously he has done it before.

I hope he can win, but I think if he does win it will be a competitive race, and as such it belongs in a "Leaning" designation and should be considered one of the battlegrounds. IMO.

I agree that at this point Fitzgerald should be favored, and with your "leaning Republican" label. I just wanted to share with the list some of the details about complicating factors in Illinois. Illinois seems to like having one Republican and one Democratic senator. It reflects the split between Chicago and Downstate, with the 'burbs split, but how it keeps working out that way is beyond me.