I conduct polls all over the country, and, at least for the type of marketing research I conduct, it's very hard to get a good responsed rate in Colorado.
Therefore, I have to spend extra time and money to get accurate results. If political pollsters are having the same trouble I am, and not spending the extra money, they are not going to get an accurate picture.
The internal polling of smart candidates is going to be better than the average newspaper poll. Smart candidates will spend the extra money it takes to be accurate.
Maybe Allard's pollsters did a better job than others who surveyed the same market.
Colorado is a very active state - lots of folks are at the gym nights and out in the mountains on weekends.
Other pollsters missed Colorado, but WE got it right. In 1996 Allard won 51-46 and our poll had it 51-46. This year, Allard won 51-45 and our poll had it 50-46.
We did well almost everywhere this year, though we got South Carolina wrong.